Inflation Scaremongering

As I said, political does necessarily mean partisan. Not sure why you have a problem understanding that.

Anyway, that's not the main point, so stop obsessing on that.

speaking of bananas, here's a good piece on part of the mess in the supply chains. looks like monopoly power at work again.

https://www.propublica.org/article/ocean-freight-shipping-costs-inflation

Partly a case of David vs Goliath

The fee controversy is pitting the Maritime Commission, with 128 employees and a $31 million annual budget, against a global shipping industry that raked in $214 billion in profits last year.

drummerboy said:

As I said, political does necessarily mean partisan. Not sure why you have a problem understanding that.

Anyway, that's not the main point, so stop obsessing on that.

well pardon me for thinking you might actually have a rationale for your bold statement that the fed is clearly acting politically. Clearly I was wrong. 

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

As I said, political does necessarily mean partisan. Not sure why you have a problem understanding that.

Anyway, that's not the main point, so stop obsessing on that.

well pardon me for thinking you might actually have a rationale for your bold statement that the fed is clearly acting politically. Clearly I was wrong. 

I'm not sure why there's a problem with understanding that "political" and "partisan" aren't exact synonyms.

nohero said:

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

As I said, political does necessarily mean partisan. Not sure why you have a problem understanding that.

Anyway, that's not the main point, so stop obsessing on that.

well pardon me for thinking you might actually have a rationale for your bold statement that the fed is clearly acting politically. Clearly I was wrong. 

I'm not sure why there's a problem with understanding that "political" and "partisan" aren't exact synonyms.

because a rule of the internet is that once you're done flogging the horse, you need to start arguing about the argument.

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

As I said, political does necessarily mean partisan. Not sure why you have a problem understanding that.

Anyway, that's not the main point, so stop obsessing on that.

well pardon me for thinking you might actually have a rationale for your bold statement that the fed is clearly acting politically. Clearly I was wrong. 

pardon me for thinking you might be literate.

nohero said:

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

As I said, political does necessarily mean partisan. Not sure why you have a problem understanding that.

Anyway, that's not the main point, so stop obsessing on that.

well pardon me for thinking you might actually have a rationale for your bold statement that the fed is clearly acting politically. Clearly I was wrong. 

I'm not sure why there's a problem with understanding that "political" and "partisan" aren't exact synonyms.

I understand that fine - but you don't explain a statement but saying what it's not. 

"The Fed is clearly acting politically."

"What do you mean by that -  how so?" (not an unreasonable question)

"Well, by political I don't necessarily mean partisan."

Okaaaaaaaay.

nohero (or ml1) - do you understand what db means by the fed is acting politically, ie who at the Fed is motivated to do what, and why? please explain what I'm not getting here. 

Smedley said:

please explain what I'm not getting here.

That repetitive obstinance plays poorly in online discussions.

You caught DB in a loose use of “acting politically” to describe a Fed that he thinks is taking its cues from politicians and public opinion. You missed your mic drop.

what makes it a "loose use"?

Smedley said:

nohero said:

I'm not sure why there's a problem with understanding that "political" and "partisan" aren't exact synonyms.

I understand that fine - but you don't explain a statement but saying what it's not. 

"The Fed is clearly acting politically."

"What do you mean by that -  how so?" (not an unreasonable question)

"Well, by political I don't necessarily mean partisan."

Okaaaaaaaay.

nohero (or ml1) - do you understand what db means by the fed is acting politically, ie who at the Fed is motivated to do what, and why? please explain what I'm not getting here. 

The discussion wasn't quite like that. It's on a prior page, so I have to do a follow-up post to illustrate what I mean.

As I mentioned in the prior post, this was the discussion on the prior page.

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

Ok that clarifies things, kind of. So when you say the fed is acting politically, you’re saying the fed is working against democrats ?

no. I'm not saying they're being partisan (though they may be. who knows?) Political does not necessarily mean partisan. I'm just saying they're not acting based on what the economics of the situation says they should do.

And just because I think what they're doing is wrong, it doesn't mean I think they're stupid, or that they don't know what they're doing. They know exactly what they're doing.

Well this is all pretty cryptic. The fed is “clearly” acting politically, but not necessarily in a partisan way. They’re not acting based on economics, yet they know exactly what they’re doing.

It’s gobbledygook . Either you’re writing a script for a bad Washington-meets-Wall Street thriller movie, or you’ve been drinking. Or both. 

DaveSchmidt said:

Smedley said:

please explain what I'm not getting here.

That repetitive obstinance plays poorly in online discussions.

You caught DB in a loose use of “acting politically” to describe a Fed that he thinks is taking its cues from politicians and public opinion. You missed your mic drop.

fair

drummerboy said:

what makes it a "loose use"?

Please see the wise counsel at the top of the page.

Since inflation hurts the poor the most, Summers says that the poor must pay to fix it.

Biden has asked for a 3-month Federal gas tax holiday. And is asking for states to do the same.

good move? bad move?

Not sure myself. Overall I say go for it.

Fed tax is 18 cents

NJ tax is 42 cents

A 60 cent discount is nothing to sneeze at, assuming the tax savings are passed on to us.

I had my first $100 fill up this week. Not fun.

I agree with Obama, who during his 2008 presidential campaign, called the idea a “gimmick” that allowed politicians to “say that they did something.”

But, go for it, why not. 

It'a a bad idea. It will increase (or at least not decrease) the demand for oil, which is exactly what you don't want to do. Higher oil prices are creating demand destruction, which is exactly what you want to do. 

Crude oil is in a free fall right now. WTI crude oil is down $6.80 or  6% today, to $102, 64. The high this year was $119.40 on March 7. WTI is down 14% off is high. Just allow the market place do its job. 

eta - Before anyone asks why the price at the pump doesn't reflect the drop in crude oil prices, it will in time. Yes, prices at the pump go up a lot faster than they come down, but they will come down if the price of crude oil stays at this level or drops even further. The oil that is being refined right now is oil that was bought at higher prices. 

btw - Prices of energy stocks are down big today. If Exxon opens where the extended hours is trading, it will be down 4.3% today and down 17% from its high. Down 20% and it's in a bear market. 

drummerboy said:

Fed tax is 18 cents

NJ tax is 42 cents

A 60 cent discount is nothing to sneeze at, assuming the tax savings are passed on to us.

A federal tax holiday would leave state taxes in place.

DaveSchmidt said:

A federal tax holiday would leave state taxes in place.

"The president will also ask states to suspend their own gas taxes, hoping to alleviate the economic pain that has contributed to the president’s diminishing popularity."

(NYT)

DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

Fed tax is 18 cents

NJ tax is 42 cents

A 60 cent discount is nothing to sneeze at, assuming the tax savings are passed on to us.

A federal tax holiday would leave state taxes in place.

thanks for that.

PVW said:

DaveSchmidt said:

A federal tax holiday would leave state taxes in place.

"The president will also ask states to suspend their own gas taxes, hoping to alleviate the economic pain that has contributed to the president’s diminishing popularity."

(NYT)

thanks for that

DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

Fed tax is 18 cents

NJ tax is 42 cents

A 60 cent discount is nothing to sneeze at, assuming the tax savings are passed on to us.

A federal tax holiday would leave state taxes in place.

db noted Biden has asked states to follow federal lead .

It's uncommon for a detail like that to slip by DS -- rare chance to play the editor to the editor ;-)

PVW said:

It's uncommon for a detail like that to slip by DS -- rare chance to play the editor to the editor ;-)

A federal tax holiday would leave state taxes in place. ;-)

drummerboy said:

thanks for that.

Smedley said:

db noted Biden has asked states to follow federal lead .

He did, and I read right over it. My apologies.

The American Petroleum Institute this afternoon reported the biggest crude oil inventory rise since February. It is the first build over 5 million barrels since mid-February. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. A high level of inventories implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude oil.

WTI crude closed at $104.30 today, down $5.22 or 4.77%.

At 18 cents a gallon, on a 20-gallon fill-up a federal tax holiday would save $3.60.  Big whoop, imo.  And meanwhile road maintenance is further deferred, so you can replace tires, suspension, etc. that much sooner.

cramer said:

It'a a bad idea. It will increase (or at least not decrease) the demand for oil, which is exactly what you don't want to do. Higher oil prices are creating demand destruction, which is exactly what you want to do. 

Crude oil is in a free fall right now. WTI crude oil is down $6.80 or  6% today, to $102, 64. The high this year was $119.40 on March 7. WTI is down 14% off is high. Just allow the market place do its job. 

eta - Before anyone asks why the price at the pump doesn't reflect the drop in crude oil prices, it will in time. Yes, prices at the pump go up a lot faster than they come down, but they will come down if the price of crude oil stays at this level or drops even further. The oil that is being refined right now is oil that was bought at higher prices. 

btw - Prices of energy stocks are down big today. If Exxon opens where the extended hours is trading, it will be down 4.3% today and down 17% from its high. Down 20% and it's in a bear market. 

Absolutely agree. Demand is slowing as people defer travel. That contributes to lower prices. Artificially reducing demand INCREASES  demand, against the intent.

that may be true in economics 101, but in today's petro market is it really the case?

not so sure.

Is there any indication that the worldwide price of crude is being affected by  excessive demand in the U.S.?