They must have updated again because now Sanders has a slight lead. Still a fair amount of precincts still to come in.
It looks like Sanders, Buttegieg and Warren are definitely above the 15% mark. Biden and Klobuchar are close so a lot depends on the remaining returns.
I just tried to read how they award actual delegates based on these results. It turns out you can't understand it without coffee (and maybe not even with coffee).
Okay the Daily Kos website and the CNN website disagree a little. CNN shows Buttigieg still with the lead, and Biden above 15%.
the AP info quoted by Daily Kos lists vote totals, CNN is listing delegate totals.
She's in double digits but doesn't seem to be hitting the threshold for delegates.
As I understand it, Klobuchar will get her delegates even if she doesn’t reach 15 percent of the overall vote. The caucuses aren’t awarding DNC delegates; they’re awarding delegates to district and state conventions, where the DNC delegates will be decided.
Nohero brought this up in an earlier post: In Iowa, I believe, the 15 percent threshold applies to votes at the local caucus gatherings.
My dear friends, it seems no one understands the Iowa Caucuses. They are not picking Delegates for the National Convention! There are over 1600 Caucuses. Iowa does not send 1600 Delegates to the National Convention.
Those precinct caucuses pick Delegates to a County Convention, which then picks Delegates to a District (Congressional District, I think) Convention, which then picks Delegates for a State Convention, which picks the Delegates for the National.
The foregoing is a History lesson. I am going to miss the Iowa Caucuses. I am not going to delete my recordings, at least for a while.
As I understand it, Klobuchar will get her delegates even if she doesn’t reach 15 percent of the overall vote. The caucuses aren’t awarding DNC delegates; they’re awarding delegates to district and state conventions, where the DNC delegates will be decided.
Nohero brought this up in an earlier post: In Iowa, I believe, the 15 percent threshold applies to votes at the local caucus gatherings.
Didn't see that while I was writing my post. You are correct. Furthermore 15% does not get you any Delegates. It makes you "viable" meaning you then have a chance to get Caucus goers who preferred a candidate who did not get 15% to come over to your group. After that they award Delegates. So in the Caucus broadcast on CSPan 2 four of the candidates were viable, but since that Precinct only was alloted 3 delegates the lowest of the four did not get a Delegate. Sadly that was my candidate.
In that small Caucus you needed 9 to be viable. Pete got 16, Biden got 10, Amy and Liz got 9 each. The only other person in the room was a Steyer supporter who, when Steyer was deemed not viable went over to Amy, who then had 10, so, finally Pete, Joe and Amy were awarded one Delegate each.
I don't. You can get sentimental over her. I won't.
She was too vocal, irrationally so. And her many conspiracy theories. God forbid you'd disagree with her. Then you'd be part of the "conspiracy."
She lowered discourse to the third grade level. If I wanted that I'd join StormFront or some Qanon site.
Perhaps. I tired of the constant videos.
That said, its kind of weird to have Bernie either leading the polls or in the top two nation wide and no one here that actually supports him. That creates a real imbalance in a lot of the discussions.
I find myself picking up the slack when people make outrageous statements about Bernie and his supporters which, as a Warren supporter, I shouldn't have to do.
So they each picked up votes. So they had to come from somewhere.
Biden lost 2,255 voters from round 1 to round 2.
Warren picked up 1,588
Yang lost 5,602
Steyer lost 2,049
Klobuchar lost 934
Of this group, the conservative (that's for you, Klinker) democrats (Biden, Steyer and Klobuchar) lost a collective 5,238 votes.
Yang I don't know where to classify.
Bernie and Warren together gained 3,086.
So my guess is that largely the Biden/Steyer/Klobuchar voters moved to Buttigieg. Maybe some Klobuchar voters moved to Warren because they'd like to see a female nominee (like me).
I'm guessing some Yang supporters moved to Sanders and some to Warren.
One thing that was interesting in the caucuses was the movement to Pete after the first vote. Was this an anti-Bernie move or a pro-Pete one?
Bernie picked up 1,498
Pete picked up 4,269
It looks like it's pro-Pete ... I think it was centrist Dems sticking with a centrist. And I think Warren and Sanders got some folks who caucused for Yang in the first round, wanted to move to a viable candidate in the second round and are interested in a bolder change for the party.
Sanders may have won the initial vote total before the realignment. It looks like he and Pete are tied in the final Delegate Count.
Warren did a little better than expected. Klobochur did better than expected. Joe Biden may still be leading in South Carolina. It's still anyone's race.
I miss a few of the old voices, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke. All were under 50 and were reasonable in their policies. They were a charismatic group with a variety of practical experience. What happened here? Now no one is excited about anyone. Its a 5 way split with people wondering who can take it to the hoop.
If those four were really charismatic they would still be in the contest. They were on the Debate Stage, they argued their cases, they got no traction.
All of the remaining candidates have enthusiastic supporters. There are ordinary people from outside New Hampshire going there to campaign in the cold and the snow for their chosen candidate.
Is Bernie declaring victory in Iowa? I think mayor Pete is the big winner there, regardless of what Bernie says.
It seems to me there were two races in Iowa, a Progressive one and a Conservative one. Bernie beat Warren by a handy margin in the Progressive race and Buttigieg clobbered Klobachaur and humiliated Biden in the Conservative race. Eventually, who ever wins these races over the long term will face off in a battle for the nomination but, at this point, I think you have two distinct pools of voters with only marginal overlap.
Sanders may have won the initial vote total before the realignment. It looks like he and Pete are tied in the final Delegate Count.
Warren did a little better than expected. Klobochur did better than expected. Joe Biden may still be leading in South Carolina. It's still anyone's race.
Klobuchar finished 5th in a state that borders her home state. Biden is a fossil. Warren can’t do well if sanders does well — not enough progressive oxygen in the room. Pete is promising but not ready for prime time.
So Sanders is the guy. Unless Democrats come to their senses and realize he’s too radical.
this split definitely paves that path for Bloomberg . And as mayor of NY he'll really be able to highlight what a con Donny was in the City. At least hearing from him on the debate stage should help a bit.
this split definitely paves that path for Bloomberg . And as mayor of NY he'll really be able to highlight what a con Donny was in the City. At least hearing from him on the debate stage should help a bit.
For the moment at least, everything is going Bloomberg’s way. In addition to the disarray in the dem field, Trump has been extra loathsome recently, with stuff like his post-impeachment presser and the nauseating Rush Limbaugh MoF. So Trump’s base loves him more than ever, but the obama-trump voter types should be itching for a non-loony alternative to the orange assclown.
Caught a bit of Ari Melber's push against Bloomberg's legacy with stats and a video. He had a surrogate or campaign manager as a guest. Stop and frisk was a part of the discussion. Hope I can catch it at a later date.
this split definitely paves that path for Bloomberg . And as mayor of NY he'll really be able to highlight what a con Donny was in the City. At least hearing from him on the debate stage should help a bit.
Brian Lehrer was playing clips of Bloomberg explaining why he was a Republican in 2001 and endorsing George W Bush in 2004. Not great stuff.
On page 1 of this thread, I went with the "conventional wisdom" that Biden and Sanders would be the top finishers. That didn't happen.
I think the real story isn't just Pete's success, but also Bernie falling short. After 4 years of effectively campaigning, and after getting the Democrats to tailor the structure of the caucuses, to his advantage, he still got only about a quarter of the vote. In other words, he did worse than he did the last time.
Brian Lehrer was playing clips of Bloomberg explaining why he was a Republican in 2001 and endorsing George W Bush in 2004. Not great stuff.
between that and stop and frisk, and his general authoritarian tendencies, Bloomberg is going to have a lot to answer for at the debates. So far he's not had anyone challenge his media blitz. If the three front runners decided to gang up on Bloomberg at a debate and really bring it to him, he'd likely be toast.
Brian Lehrer was playing clips of Bloomberg explaining why he was a Republican in 2001 and endorsing George W Bush in 2004. Not great stuff.
between that and stop and frisk, and his general authoritarian tendencies, Bloomberg is going to have a lot to answer for at the debates. So far he's not had anyone challenge his media blitz. If the three front runners decided to gang up on Bloomberg at a debate and really bring it to him, he'd likely be toast.
I suspect that's the strategy behind letting him onto the stage in Nevada. For all the handwringing about "bending the rules", the debate stage is not the best outlet for Bloomberg to get his message out before Super Tuesday.
the AP info quoted by Daily Kos lists vote totals, CNN is listing delegate totals.