Inflation Scaremongering

terp said:

Nothing to see here. Food cost compared to income is highest in 30 years

It’s not nothing to see, but it’s not current. That “latest USDA data available” is from 2022. (A clue: 30 years ago from now was Clinton; Bush was 30 years ago from 2022.)

U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.3 percent of their disposable personal income on food in 2022— reaching levels similar to the 1980s.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/


apropos the thread title, they're still at it.

Baker and terp must have the same sources.


terp said:

Nothing to see here.  Food cost compared to income is highest in 30 years

Never fall into a trap like that, accepting a summary statement without any curiosity about the details. For example, even in the more detailed news release about that - 

DaveSchmidt said:

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/

- it notes that as people started to go out to eat more in 2022, the increase in the percentage of income used for food was "driven by an increase in the share of income spent on food away from home."

Also, "highest in 30 years" is accurate, although context changes what it means - 


I was just looking at that very tweet.

The WSJ is silly.


nohero said:

- it notes that as people started to go out to eat more in 2022, the increase in the percentage of income used for food was "driven by an increase in the share of income spent on food away from home."

Also, "highest in 30 years" is accurate, although context changes what it means - 

the absolute first thought I had when I read that article was -- what has the range in % been over 30 years. 

Now I know. 


inflation adjusted price of gas is the same, more or less, that it was in the 70's

potato chips otoh are through the roof


nohero said:

Also, "highest in 30 years" is accurate, although context changes what it means -

Disposable income per capita in 2022 was about $55,000. The difference between 11.3% and, say, 9.8% within the barely perceptible range of the line graph would be $825.


DaveSchmidt said:

nohero said:

Also, "highest in 30 years" is accurate, although context changes what it means -

Disposable income per capita in 2022 was about $55,000. The difference between 11.3% and, say, 9.8% within the barely perceptible range of the line graph would be $825.

not for nothing but incomes didn't catch up and surpass inflation in the U.S. until pretty late in 2023. Your observation that the data was only through 2022 is pretty important. 

The only reason I can see for publishing this story now without mentioning that caveat is negativity bias. 

Or maybe an AI bot wrote the story. 


what's most important here is realizing that terp has once again peddled some ****


drummerboy said:

what's most important here is realizing that terp has once again peddled some ****

if data tells a person a story he likes, why ask questions about it?


These numbers would be easier to accept if there weren't so many other numbers. Oops, wrong thread.

DaveSchmidt said:

terp said:

Nothing to see here. Food cost compared to income is highest in 30 years

It’s not nothing to see, but it’s not current. That “latest USDA data available” is from 2022. (A clue: 30 years ago from now was Clinton; Bush was 30 years ago from 2022.)

U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.3 percent of their disposable personal income on food in 2022— reaching levels similar to the 1980s.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-prices-and-spending/

Thank you for pointing that out.  Its weird because that story has been widely reported in the last few days.  https://search.brave.com/news?q=food%20cost%20compared%20to%20income


terp said:

Thank you for pointing that out.  Its weird because that story has been widely reported in the last few days.  https://search.brave.com/news?q=food%20cost%20compared%20to%20income

It’s not that weird that newsmax.com, hotair.com, nypost.com, etc. (at that link) had a similar framing of the story. 


nohero said:

terp said:

Thank you for pointing that out.  Its weird because that story has been widely reported in the last few days.  https://search.brave.com/news?q=food%20cost%20compared%20to%20income

It’s not that weird that newsmax.com, hotair.com, nypost.com, etc. (at that link) had a similar framing of the story. 

and when there is only one number presented without context, it should raise a question or two. 


terp said:

Its weird because that story has been widely reported in the last few days. https://search.brave.com/news?q=food%20cost%20compared%20to%20income

Your search turned up nine hits related to that story. Six outlets, including two local ABC affiliates, picked up the 11.3%/30-year angle and wrote reports after The Wall Street Journal cited it in an article. Two others, including your original link from another local ABC affiliate, carried a CNN Wire rewrite of the WSJ article on their websites. The ninth was a copy of the WSJ article.


words from the oracle



DaveSchmidt said:

LOL I knew this was coming.


drummerboy said:

LOL I knew this was coming.

So we’re predictable.


Here’s the study behind the second, grammatically correct headline:

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32163/w32163.pdf



terp said:

so, taken to it's logical extension, eventually everything will be free.

did I get that right?

an idiot pushed by a bitcoin evangelist. you sure can pick'em.


drummerboy said:

terp said:

so, taken to it's logical extension, eventually everything will be free.

did I get that right?

an idiot pushed by a bitcoin evangelist. you sure can pick'em.

You are making a case he didn't make.  It's ok if you are unable to understand.  I thought his case was clear and plainly stated.   I would note that you didn't take issue with anything he actually said.


terp said:

You are making a case he didn't make.  It's ok if you are unable to understand.  I thought his case was clear and plainly stated.   I would note that you didn't take issue with anything he actually said.

as I said, "taken to it's logical extension"

if, as he contends, the economy grows but the money supply remains static then prices fall, won't prices continue to fall as the economy grows if the supply remains static? until prices are zero?

explain how I'm wrong.


drummerboy said:

terp said:

You are making a case he didn't make.  It's ok if you are unable to understand.  I thought his case was clear and plainly stated.   I would note that you didn't take issue with anything he actually said.

as I said, "taken to it's logical extension"

if, as he contends, the economy grows but the money supply remains static then prices fall, won't prices continue to fall as the economy grows if the supply remains static? until prices are zero?

explain how I'm wrong.

That's not what he's saying.  He's saying that prices will fall as production rises.  So, supply will increase with the same inputs. This would then result in lower prices.  This is what real economic growth brings.  Ultimately, the prices of many goods goes to zero. That is not due to the fact that there is unlimited supply, but due to the fact that they are replaced with superior products. 


terp said:

Ultimately, the prices of many goods goes to zero.

er, that's what I'm saying.

do you want to think about that for a bit?


drummerboy said:

terp said:

Ultimately, the prices of many goods goes to zero.

er, that's what I'm saying.

do you want to think about that for a bit?

That is factually correct, but not true.  You said everything will be free.


terp said:

drummerboy said:

terp said:

Ultimately, the prices of many goods goes to zero.

er, that's what I'm saying.

do you want to think about that for a bit?

That is factually correct, but not true.  You said everything will be free.

paying zero for something is not equivalent to it being free? (for the consumer, obviously)

OK

also, what does "factually correct, but not true" even mean?


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