NJ Gov
Jaytee said:
Polls are utter bullsiht these days.
as someone who has relied on survey data my entire career, I don't disagree with you, with a couple of qualifiers. I have a suspicion that a big segment of GOP voters have decided polls are liberal fake news, and refuse to participate. I don't know how you'd study that other than to try and see what cooperation rates have been over time, and if they've been declining more in certain zip codes than others.
but if one group refused to participate and you're measuring their behavioral intentions, there's going to be serious systematic bias. And in this case if it's true Republicans are opting out, it's essentially a fatal bias that's going to completely destroy your poll's usefulness.
I drive around NJ a lot for work. Multiple Jack billboards. Murphy? Not so much.
Where were the get-out-the-vote drives, I wonder? Were they happening? I started getting messages on Friday that I hadn't returned my mail-in ballot yet. I dropped it in the box on Monday and it was recorded as received. Was I just taken for granted until records showed I hadn't cast my vote yet?
and fwiw, Murphy is currently 15,000 votes ahead, and aside from some precincts in Monmouth county, just about all the reporting that's outstanding is in Democratic-leaning counties (including Essex which reports only 90% of results delivered). Looks like. Murphy has a good chance of winning and avoiding a recount AND getting a bit more votes than he did four years ago.
and that's a different story than the narrative of unenthusiastic Democratic voters. At least in our state, the story is fired up conservatives. The Dems came out in the same numbers as the last time around. So the solution is to do what was done in 2020, and drive MORE turnout than usual.
BlueShirt88 said:
So Murphy is in the lead? How convenient.
Isn't that what happens when you get more votes than the other person?
mrincredible said:
Isn't that what happens when you get more votes than the other person?
Only at the state level. At the federal level...
ml1 said:
and fwiw, Murphy is currently 15,000 votes ahead, and aside from some precincts in Monmouth county, just about all the reporting that's outstanding is in Democratic-leaning counties (including Essex which reports only 90% of results delivered). Looks like. Murphy has a good chance of winning and avoiding a recount AND getting a bit more votes than he did four years ago.
and that's a different story than the narrative of unenthusiastic Democratic voters. At least in our state, the story is fired up conservatives. The Dems came out in the same numbers as the last time around. So the solution is to do what was done in 2020, and drive MORE turnout than usual.
I read that among the uncounted votes are provisional ballots. I used one as last year I voted by mail but this year I showed up in person. Given the partisan skew of people who chose to vote by mail last year, I suspect the provisional ballots will lean heavily toward Murphy.
This is interesting and a pretty quick read. It's funny that it's not more prominently in the news, but who knows why? Apparently a few dozen districts including several in Essex County have not returned their election results yet. It sounds like because the machines were shut down before they finished tabulating, they now have to go through a more protracted process to legally access these voting machines and count the votes recorded. Maplewood is among the towns affected.
I also just checked the ballot tracker, and my mail in ballot which was received on Monday has not had its status updated to accepted. I wonder if that means it has not been counted yet.
mrincredible said:
This is interesting and a pretty quick read. It's funny that it's not more prominently in the news, but who knows why? Apparently a few dozen districts including several in Essex County have not returned their election results yet. It sounds like because the machines were shut down before they finished tabulating, they now have to go through a more protracted process to legally access these voting machines and count the votes recorded. Maplewood is among the towns affected.
I also just checked the ballot tracker, and my mail in ballot which was received on Monday has not had its status updated to accepted. I wonder if that means it has not been counted yet.
Same here. I only hope this doesn’t give credence to the republicans claims that the election was rigged. It’s frustrating.
I don't think it gives credence, but certainly gives them ammo. When these votes are tallied it will certainly widen Murphy's lead, and anyone who pays attention to politics around here shouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.
It's the kind of thing that plays wl on New smacks and ONANN though, with a national audience that doesn't understand local politics. "Suddenly Murphy got a boost from these supposedly uncounted ballots that were over 80% in his favor!!!" I can hear f***er Carlson screeching already.
The ballots in question are from Essex and Camden Counties and Paterson. I don't know how many votes it represents but I gotta figure Murphy nets a couple thousand.
mrincredible said:
I don't think it gives credence, but certainly gives them ammo. When these votes are tallied it will certainly widen Murphy's lead, and anyone who pays attention to politics around here shouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.
It's the kind of thing that plays wl on New smacks and ONANN though, with a national audience that doesn't understand local politics. "Suddenly Murphy got a boost from these supposedly uncounted ballots that were over 80% in his favor!!!" I can hear f***er Carlson screeching already.
The ballots in question are from Essex and Camden Counties and Paterson. I don't know how many votes it represents but I gotta figure Murphy nets a couple thousand.
The worst part about people like Carlson is that I'm certain they understand perfectly well, and actively choose to lie and deceive their audiences for the sake of stoking anger, division, and profit.
mrincredible said:
I don't think it gives credence, but certainly gives them ammo. When these votes are tallied it will certainly widen Murphy's lead, and anyone who pays attention to politics around here shouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.
It's the kind of thing that plays wl on New smacks and ONANN though, with a national audience that doesn't understand local politics. "Suddenly Murphy got a boost from these supposedly uncounted ballots that were over 80% in his favor!!!" I can hear f***er Carlson screeching already.
The ballots in question are from Essex and Camden Counties and Paterson. I don't know how many votes it represents but I gotta figure Murphy nets a couple thousand.
People chased Russia collusion ghosts for 3 years. Some people still believe that nonsense.
terp said:
mrincredible said:
I don't think it gives credence, but certainly gives them ammo. When these votes are tallied it will certainly widen Murphy's lead, and anyone who pays attention to politics around here shouldn't be the slightest bit surprised.
It's the kind of thing that plays wl on New smacks and ONANN though, with a national audience that doesn't understand local politics. "Suddenly Murphy got a boost from these supposedly uncounted ballots that were over 80% in his favor!!!" I can hear f***er Carlson screeching already.
The ballots in question are from Essex and Camden Counties and Paterson. I don't know how many votes it represents but I gotta figure Murphy nets a couple thousand.
People chased Russia collusion ghosts for 3 years. Some people still believe that nonsense.
I assume you missed reading the Senate committee report on the issue. The Republican led committee. No ghosts.
ETA: other than that, your analogy is crap.
Rentals
Sponsored Business
Promote your business here - Businesses get highlighted throughout the site and you can add a deal.
he hung his hat on being the DeSantis of NJ regarding COVID restrictions. and it seems to have worked. He got 300,000 more votes than Guadagno, while Murphy is on pace to get more votes than in 2017. Ciatarelli managed to fire up a lot of people.