Betrayal

I don't know what else to call it.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/19/manchin-says-he-wont-support-bidens-social-spending-bill-525458

“To me, that’s not acceptable,” said progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.).
 “I wish we would have kept both bills together. That was the plan throughout several months of negotiation,” Bowman said. “I was frustrated then and obviously frustrated now that we decided to decouple those bills, because, as Manchin has shown in the past, we cannot just take his word for something.”

Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said in a statement that Manchin had "betrayed his commitment." Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Sunday he “absolutely” wants to see a vote on the legislation, calling for Democrats to "let him vote no in front of the whole world" on CNN's "State of the Union."

When are "Progressives" actually going to get tough?


If ever there was an argument for proportional representation in the Senate, this is it. 


He not only betrayed Biden and the Democrats, he betrayed West Virginia. I know it might not seem that way presently, but that coal he’s heavily invested in is a dying resource. He’s probably the worst member of the Democrat party at this time in history. 
With so many people in his state on drugs and Medicaid, he should honestly be supportive of Biden and this BBB initiative. 


I think Manchin will soon pull a Specter.  Good riddance! 


Jaytee said:

He not only betrayed Biden and the Democrats, he betrayed West Virginia. I know it might not seem that way presently, but that coal he’s heavily invested in is a dying resource. He’s probably the worst member of the Democrat party at this time in history. 
With so many people in his state on drugs and Medicaid, he should honestly be supportive of Biden and this BBB initiative. 

25% of people over 65 in W. Virginia have no natural teeth left.

https://khn.org/news/article/medicare-dental-care-west-virginia-senator-joe-manchin/

MAGA!


STANV said:

When are "Progressives" actually going to get tough?

What do you think Manchin’s stance might be right now if the infrastructure bill were still being held up in the House? If you think it would be different, why? And would you be OK not having either the infrastructure bill or BBB done yet?


DaveSchmidt said:

What do you think Manchin’s stance might be right now if the infrastructure bill were still being held up in the House? If you think it would be different, why? And would you be OK not having either the infrastructure bill or BBB done yet?

I think if the infrastructure bill had continued to be held up, Biden would have two legislative failures instead of one.

I suspect Manchin is bolting the party at this point Good luck to him - it'll be tough overcoming that vote for impeachment. Can't see him doing well in a Republican primary. Maybe he's planning to switch in 2022 and then retire at the end of his term.

Beyond supply chain and pandemic issues, I think Dem's best bet here is to come up with a much smaller, much less ambitious bill. I think getting a version of the expanded child tax credit made permanent in some form is a good goal -- make sure its refundable, and I guess negotiate on where the income cut off is. That's a good return on investment in reducing poverty, though. Climate stuff will have to go through executive actions. I'm on the record as not loving governance through executive action, but also seeing it as the inevitable consequence of the way we've set up our government. Biden should also cancel most student debt -- that's a popular move that would meaningfully help many people, and Dems could really use a win right now.


Why do "progressives" actually think they have much of a hand to play?  If "progressives" play hardball, they'll get nothing.


tjohn said:

Why do "progressives" actually think they have much of a hand to play?  If "progressives" play hardball, they'll get nothing.

Why are we even talking about progressives?  It is the Democratic Party writ large that Manchin has declared war on.  If your group opposes you 49 to 1, perhaps it's time to step aside and bow to the consensus.


Is this the voting record of a Senator who has "declared war" on the Democratic party?

There's a lot of hysteria around a centrist Senator from WV, who was always questionable on BBB, not supporting BBB. Most likely it'll come back in a reduced / piecemeal form and something will pass. 


What exactly makes Manchin a centrist and not a conservative?


Smedley said:

His voting record?

https://apnews.com/article/ap-fact-check-voting-rights-government-and-politics-c65d4424c200ede56fc31db42e28e084

With the caveat that opposition by a single senator (or a few House members) can prevent bills from coming up for a vote to begin with, so the opposition in those cases — often disproportionately major ones — is not reflected in the percentages.


Fine. But the voting record is where the rubber hits the road. And I don't think any reasonable person can look at Manchin's voting record and conclude he is a conservative and/or he has declared war on the Democratic Party. 


PVW said:

DaveSchmidt said:

What do you think Manchin’s stance might be right now if the infrastructure bill were still being held up in the House? If you think it would be different, why? And would you be OK not having either the infrastructure bill or BBB done yet?

I think if the infrastructure bill had continued to be held up, Biden would have two legislative failures instead of one.

I suspect Manchin is bolting the party at this point Good luck to him - it'll be tough overcoming that vote for impeachment. Can't see him doing well in a Republican primary. Maybe he's planning to switch in 2022 and then retire at the end of his term.

Beyond supply chain and pandemic issues, I think Dem's best bet here is to come up with a much smaller, much less ambitious bill. I think getting a version of the expanded child tax credit made permanent in some form is a good goal -- make sure its refundable, and I guess negotiate on where the income cut off is. That's a good return on investment in reducing poverty, though. Climate stuff will have to go through executive actions. I'm on the record as not loving governance through executive action, but also seeing it as the inevitable consequence of the way we've set up our government. Biden should also cancel most student debt -- that's a popular move that would meaningfully help many people, and Dems could really use a win right now.

OK, I disagree with most of what you write. If the infrastructure bill had been "held up" and joined with BBB as originally promised I think Manchin would have been compelled to support both. Separating them gave him an option. But of course we can't go back and see what would happen.

Manchin will not switch parties. Doing so makes him less relevant. OTOH if he did so McConnell becomes leader and in essence head of the Republican Party which might give "the former guy" a heart attack so it wouldn't be a total loss. 

Why does a "smaller, much less ambitious bill" have any better chance? It still has to be done through reconciliation and you still need all 50 Dems to support it. And if that is what Manchin wanted he could have said so.


Smedley said:

Fine. But the voting record is where the rubber hits the road. And I don't think any reasonable person can look at Manchin's voting record and conclude he is a conservative and/or he has declared war on the Democratic Party. 

I do not know what a "reasonable person" looks like anymore since the most highly rated "pundit" on FOX News thinks Mitch McConnell is a "tool of the Left".

Also I am not sure what "conservative" means anymore. At least one frequent contributor to this forum has characterized Joe Biden that way. ( I am reading The Reactionary Mind to get a better understanding)

Manchin has not declared war on the Democratic Party. He has just stabbed its leader in the back. 


The Democratic caucus in the Senate isn't particularly progressive.  The Congressional Progressive Caucus is made up of 95 House members and only one senator.  There are 49 senators and at least 95 House members to the left of Joe Manchin.  He's not an insane right-winger like the Republicans, but he's conservative.  IIRC, he has referred to himself as a conservative Democrat.


ml1 said:

IIRC, he has referred to himself as a conservative Democrat.

“I’m a proud moderate conservative Democrat,” Manchin told Brett Baier in an interview in November last year.


Manchin is a conservative Democrat, sure. Just like John McCain was a liberal Republican. But I think saying that Manchin is a conservative holds as much water as saying McCain was a liberal -- ie, none.  


And ultimately, the Dems should consider themselves fortunate to have a Senator from West Virginia, a state that voted for Trump by more than 2-1, on their side, even if it's just 90% of the time or whatever the number is. Because the default alternative in a deep red state is a Republican Senator who would be on their side 0% of the time. 

So progressives who wish for Manchin to go to hell should be careful what they wish for.  


Manchin cannot vote against coal interests.  The BBB program has provisions to speed up the transition away from coal.  Manchin might as well resign if he votes against coal interests.  I think the analysis can start and end with this reality.


STANV said:

And if that is what Manchin wanted he could have said so.

From Manchin's POV, he has said so, multiple times, and it's the rest of his caucus that hasn't been listening to him and believed he could be convinced otherwise.

ETA: see the "Deal is still possible" reading in this Vox article.



PVW said:

From Manchin's POV, he has said so, multiple times, and it's the rest of his caucus that hasn't been listening to him and believed he could be convinced otherwise.

ETA: see the "Deal is still possible" reading in this Vox article.

I agree, he got what he wanted in the infrastructure bill. Plus he benefits financially from it, so now he’s just doing what he was threatening to do all along. His timing is perfect, he can blame inflation, he can blame the costs, coupled with the fact that the rest of his party no longer have any leverage over him. So yeah, he’s not a team player. 


How many politicians are team players when asked to cast a vote that will cost them their jobs?

Jeannette Rankin is the only elected official I can think of who voted on principle at the cost of her job.


this is the Joe Biden agenda.  We're not talking about some crazy far-left legislation. The Progressive Caucus is certainly 100% in favor of it, but it isn't their bill.

Manchin isn't roadblocking the Squad here.  He's roadblocking the president and about 99% of the Democrats in Congress.


DaveSchmidt said:

ml1 said:

IIRC, he has referred to himself as a conservative Democrat.

“I’m a proud moderate conservative Democrat,” Manchin told Brett Baier in an interview in November last year.

I'd say I got it pretty much right then:

ml1 said:

He's not an insane right-winger like the Republicans, but he's conservative.  


PVW said:

STANV said:

And if that is what Manchin wanted he could have said so.

From Manchin's POV, he has said so, multiple times, and it's the rest of his caucus that hasn't been listening to him and believed he could be convinced otherwise.

ETA: see the "Deal is still possible" reading in this Vox article.

the sub-head of that Vox article: "The bill’s fate depends on whether he’s acting in good faith or bad faith."

Manchin's actions so far don't give us much reason to believe it's the former.


ml1 said:

I'd say I got it pretty much right then:

Kudos to you. I posted the quote just in case anyone other than me was curious what his actual words were. 


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