Aftermath - the 2021 elections
Smedley said:
Inflation is an exogenous factor that's not working in Biden's favor. However I am skeptical of the covid argument. While covid is not over , the past month to six weeks or so has been arguably the most sustained positive stretch since covid started 20 months ago. And yet that hasn't budged Biden's numbers.
if Delta surge were a primary cause of Biden's numbers decline, the numbers should be retracing by now.
The way I understand the "it's the economy, stupid" argument is not that there's a literal 1:1 correspondence between a specific metric -- unemployment, or GDP, or covid case numbers -- and a president's poll numbers. Rather, that it's a shorthand way of saying "people rate a president based on their experienced quality of life."
So a bad economy generally means bad presidential approval ratings because most people in a bad economy are experiencing a poor quality of life. But reducing that to, for instance, the unemployment rate, is too simplistic because other factors go into what people are experiencing. The same number feels different coming off of a hot economy than climbing out of deep recession, as one simple example.
Same with covid. Yes, the surge has receded, but our daily lives are still very much lived in the shadow of the pandemic. Masks are still a thing, travel is still a huge pain, normal daily interactions still involve fraught calculations of risk and reward. The pandemic, in other words, isn't over yet.
So what I'm looking for is to see if Biden's numbers rebound when the pandemic "ends." I think this could go a few ways:
- Children get vaccinated at a rapid rate, we avoid a major winter surge, and between that and treatments like molnupiravir becoming widely available we're pretty much done. The supply chain issues ease, and Biden begins his second year with the wind at his back and rising poll numbers, maybe as early as the SOTU, but possibly March or so, and I'm feeling pretty vindicated in my thesis.
- The above happens, and Biden's poll numbers stay close to where they are now. I have to revisit many assumptions.
- The pandemic improves, but the supply chain issues don't. It becomes very difficult to draw firm conclusions regardless of what happens to Biden's approval rating.
- The pandemic and the economy are stuck about where they are now. Again, difficult to draw many conclusions if that happens.
- Trump announces he's running for president; Biden's approval dramatically improves. Mtierney starts talking about Hunter Biden a lot more.
The fact that every house member, (Democrats and republicans) in New Jersey voted for the BBB, is a sign that Biden’s numbers will go up next year.
I would rather he polls low in the first year than his last year. The economy will pick up and people will start to see things differently. Of course we will still have people attacking Biden and the liberals on social issues, because that’s what they do when the economy is doing well. That’s what they did to Clinton and Obama. They are so predictable.
Smedley said:
Inflation is an exogenous factor that's not working in Biden's favor. However I am skeptical of the covid argument. While covid is not over , the past month to six weeks or so has been arguably the most sustained positive stretch since covid started 20 months ago. And yet that hasn't budged Biden's numbers.
You could look at the poll that you're relying on -
11. How about President Biden’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic - approve or disapprove?
(N=1,000) n %
Approve------------------------------------------------------------433 43.30
Disapprove--------------------------------------------------------500 50.00
Undecided --------------------------------------------------------- 67 6.70
11-8-21 National Poll with USA TODAY marginals (suffolk.edu)
The respondents don't sound as confident about Covid as you're assuming. Of course, the "disapprove" will include people who don't want any mandates at all, as well as those who think that Biden hasn't gone far enough.
ml1 said:
anybody know what Obama's approval rating was at the end of 2011?
Anything's possible, but Obama was a force of nature, and VP Biden was a solid behind-the-scenes guy. That mattered.
I'm sure you see things differently but IMO, President Biden is not a force (to put it delicately), and VP Harris is practically invisible. So it's tough to see how a similar trajectory unfolds.
ml1 said:
anybody know what Obama's approval rating was at the end of 2011?
Per Gallup - 43%.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/151025/obama-job-approval-monthly.aspx
A more reasonable comparison to today would seem to be 10/31/09, which was 53%.
Why?
jimmurphy said:
ml1 said:
anybody know what Obama's approval rating was at the end of 2011?
Per Gallup - 43%.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/151025/obama-job-approval-monthly.aspx
A more reasonable comparison to today would seem to be 10/31/09, which was 53%.
Why?
a year later he was reelected. After a low 40s approval rating.
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
anybody know what Obama's approval rating was at the end of 2011?
Anything's possible, but Obama was a force of nature, and VP Biden was a solid behind-the-scenes guy. That mattered.
I'm sure you see things differently but IMO, President Biden is not a force (to put it delicately), and VP Harris is practically invisible. So it's tough to see how a similar trajectory unfolds.
if he was a force of nature, how did he end up with a low 40s approval rating?
The only thing I see is how crazy it is to assume that a year from now the world will look like it looks today. The answer for Biden and the Democrats isn't to obsess over the polls. It's to get some things done for regular people. And last Saturday was a small step.
ml1 said:
if he was a force of nature, how did he end up with a low 40s approval rating?
The only thing I see is how crazy it is to assume that a year from now the world will look like it looks today. The answer for Biden and the Democrats isn't to obsess over the polls. It's to get some things done for regular people. And last Saturday was a small step.
Agreed on focusing on polls in the moment being foolish for predicting the future.
Doesn’t mean that they’re not feedback that might inform exactly what things should be done for regular people.
tjohn said:
I wonder wtf people expected to happen given that Biden was given a split Senate with 1 or 2 members who are barely Democrats. The concerning trend in our politics is the apparent belief that the President alone can get things done.
The Senate split wasn’t holding up the infrastructure bill. What my dad, a lifelong Delawarean who likes Biden, expected him to do was sign the bill months ago. I tried explaining the reason for the holdup, and why the leverage was important for the progressives. He’s no Republican, but the rationality of the politics — and eventual resolution — didn’t temper his frustration with the Democrats.
ml1 said:
Smedley said:
ml1 said:
anybody know what Obama's approval rating was at the end of 2011?
Anything's possible, but Obama was a force of nature, and VP Biden was a solid behind-the-scenes guy. That mattered.
I'm sure you see things differently but IMO, President Biden is not a force (to put it delicately), and VP Harris is practically invisible. So it's tough to see how a similar trajectory unfolds.
if he was a force of nature, how did he end up with a low 40s approval rating?
Obama didn’t “end up” with a low 40s approval rating, he ended up with a mid 50s approval rating.
To your (kinda dumb) question, just because someone is a force of nature doesn’t mean that person won’t have difficulties, setbacks, troubles etc. But being a force of nature means you have a better chance to overcome that stuff and win out in the end, which is what Obama did, finishing two terms and being generally regarded as a successful president.
Biden may get lucky and have things go his way which will bail him out, but unfortunately he is too tired and flummoxed to drive his own comeback.
ml1 said: "The answer for Biden and the Democrats isn't to obsess over the polls. It's to get some things done for regular people. And last Saturday was a small step."
Get things done AND make sure people understand the benefits of what Dems have done and propose to do. The Dems (bless their hearts) have been tongue-tied about this kind of thing forever imo, while the Reps just pound pound pound on the vocabulary they've used at least since the days of Newt and GOPAC. (https://uh.edu/~englin/rephandout.html and many other cites/sites)
Come on, Dems, can you say 21st century jobs! America held back by crumbling outdated infrastructure, have to be up to date to lead the world.... Pix of crumbling bridges, aging airports supplemented by tents, potholes, Texans trying to get heat and light last winter, the sound of dial-up internet.... Contrast with some good completed? projects...surely there are some? Note current low low interest rates, a great time to borrow for deferred maintenance and to move forward.... Possibly something about Americans stepping up to buy bonds during WWII, the country needs to invest again, many around the world happy to buy our bonds? (if still true). Being careful with money, good; letting your/your children's home go to pot, not good.
PVW said:
The way I understand the "it's the economy, stupid" argument is not that there's a literal 1:1 correspondence between a specific metric -- unemployment, or GDP, or covid case numbers -- and a president's poll numbers. Rather, that it's a shorthand way of saying "people rate a president based on their experienced quality of life."
In a similar vein, I generally give a lot more importance to material circumstances than cultural issues. Here's George Will in the Washington Post, for example, writing that Progressives ruined San Francisco, but at least ‘advocacy’ is thriving. The problem, in his view, is progressives over-regulating ice cream and under-regulating drugs. This is nonsense. The problem with San Francisco is that its the urban center of a highly significant sector of our economy but has a population density lower than Brooklyn. And you could definitely attack liberals and progressives over this -- seems once people own property they get plenty conservative about their own backyards, regardless of who they vote for -- but this really has nothing to do with any of the culture war issues people like Will get hung up on.
“This has important implications, among other things, for the politics of economic policy. The economy is likely to get considerably better over the months ahead as the pandemic subsides and snarls in the supply chain get worked out. But there is no guarantee that the American public will even notice these gains. If the Biden administration wants to turn perceptions around, an objectively good economy won’t be enough; the good news will have to be sold, hard.”
Focusing on the “sold, hard” language. I’ll align with Smedley again and agree that Biden and the Dems need to do a much better sales job.
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Inflation is an exogenous factor that's not working in Biden's favor. However I am skeptical of the covid argument. While covid is not over , the past month to six weeks or so has been arguably the most sustained positive stretch since covid started 20 months ago. And yet that hasn't budged Biden's numbers.
if Delta surge were a primary cause of Biden's numbers decline, the numbers should be retracing by now.