Why did mfpark get more snow than we did?

oops, I just noticed we're not in the bubble anymore, and my window tells me it's snowing already.

So does this 3-hour jump-start mean it will end earlier, or we will get more snow? 

shanabana said:

So does this 3-hour jump-start mean it will end earlier, or we will get more snow? 

I don't think it started 3 hours earlier. They were now calling for the watch/snowfall to begin about 5 PM so it was just a bit earlier if that.

wendy said:

shanabana said:

So does this 3-hour jump-start mean it will end earlier, or we will get more snow? 

I don't think it started 3 hours earlier. They were now calling for the watch/snowfall to begin about 5 PM so it was just a bit earlier if that.

I was responding to what Max wrote, that it would start at 7. So it was not three but two and a quarter.

No real change to the forecast.  The warning holds, the timing is still the same, there is still a chance it busts to rain, and still about an equal chance of 6"

Most likely outcome 4" - 6" of wet snow, much of which will melt tomorrow as temps get up into the 40s.

This is a fast-moving system, and the bulk of the snow will have fallen by 4am.  The system is trending towards the warmer end of the forecast, which is good in that it will keep the snow totals down, and it looks like freezing rain or ice (which were never very likely) are now mostly off the table.

Warming tomorrow and rain Monday likely to make this snowfall a fading memory.

About 6 to 8 here in Morristown.  Wife has to be somewhere by 8.  Roads are clear but I still need to shovel so she can get out. Can't wait for the meltdown.  Bummer.

Nothing like the gleaming frosted trees and crisp blue sky the morning after a snowfall.

Pretty indeed.  About 40% of full sidewalk done. Heading out to do more in a few minutes.  Not as much of an accumulation as I expected.  More large lumps than even powder we usually get.  Comes up from the sidewalk easily.  I would just leave it to the sun if we didn't get so many church goes walking past the house for Sunday  morning service.

mfpark said:

About 6 to 8 here in Morristown.  Wife has to be somewhere by 8.  Roads are clear but I still need to shovel so she can get out. Can't wait for the meltdown.  Bummer.

So Mark gets 6-8" and we only got 3-4"

Why? You might ask.

First, let's verify the results.  Newark Airport reported 3.1" when the snow stopped at 1 am.  This is an important data point, because it means that our total did not subside from when the snow stopped until I measured at 8:30.

Now Morristown.  We  have official reports of 7.4" in Morristown, and and 8.5" in Morris Plains.  Notice also, 6.9" in Livingston but 9.5" in Randolf.  So, to a point, there is significantly more snow further west, but a few miles makes a big difference.  Why?

1)  More water fell.  A band of heavier precipitation went through, centered just west of Morristown, that added 0.1" to 0.3" of water, in the form of snow.  This accounts for about 1.5 to 2" of the difference in snow depth.

2)  It was colder.  Not by much.  At the peak of the snowfall it was 34° here and 31° in Morristown.  But that was enought to change the snow yield from 6:1 here to 10:1 there.  So we got 3.5" from 0.6"  of precipitation, and Morristown got 7" of snow from 0.7".

That was why it was so hard to forecast last night's snowfall.  A combination of some banding was expected in a fast moving storm, and a temperature profile right around the freezing mark affecting yield.

On a newspaper copy desk, Max, they’d call that new thread title a great headline.

Looked like a lot less than 3 inches when I went out to shovel at about 8 am.  Could four blocks in distance have made that much of a difference in snow totals or had some compaction/melting already taken place?  Air temperature here was 34 degrees at 8 am this morning according to outdoor thermometer hanging over my front door.

It should have been less on the sidewalk, Joan.  Sun in the morning warmed pavements so that the first hour or two snow had difficulty adhering/accumulating. 

Thanks.

Thanks for the explanation, Max! I have to say it was a stunning morning to be shoveling.  The sky was powder blue and cloud free, the sunrise came in pinks and oranges and yellows behind the sparkling ice in the trees (we live on a steep hill).  At one point a flock of black birds danced in the sky overhead as the wind brushed snow from the trees and powdered the cleared street.  Later we made a snow person because the water content was perfect and just begged for one to be made.  I love the smell of warm snow days like this, too.  Perfect day.

NWS drew a pretty picture to illustrate my point: