It's Time Again for the Hot Stove League!
Well, so much for what I know about baseball. Life is always humbling me.
Red Sox re-signed Keith Moreland at first base, taking them out of the Hosmer market and quite likely out of the Martinez market. It also means Hanley Ramirez either sticks as a DH with first base play against lefties, or just as likely Ramirez gets cut loose and the Sox eat the last year of his contract ($22M) or trade him and still eat most of that contract. If they ditch Ramirez and are willing to blow above the cap then Martinez may still be their DH.
In Moreland the Sox keep a really fine fielding first baseman who has a bit of thump left in his bat. He is not of the Santana/Hosmer/Martinez level of hitter they were supposedly seeking, but a two year deal at $6.5M a year is not bad at all for them to keep Moreland.
Scott Boras might be getting a bit of heat from his clients today.
Aw shucks. Thanks.
DaveSchmidt said:
mfpark said:
At this point it seems like the Marlins want young, cheap prospects, so I don't think Harvey would fill the bill.
No. 1: Thank you, mfpark, for keeping this thread going. As someone who is happier to receive winter baseball news than to seek it out, I really enjoy your updates, not to mention your commentary. My scant responses are no indication of the level of my attention or appreciation.
No. 2: I meant to compliment you earlier on your idiom above. Most people these days go around talking about bills that are somehow ill fitted — but if there’s a bill of wordsmiths somewhere with space for another name, yours can fill it.
If you're a Mets fan...who would you give up to get JT Realmuto? I love that dude. Would you give up Rosario?
NotoriousEAM said:
If you're a Mets fan...who would you give up to get JT Realmuto? I love that dude. Would you give up Rosario?
yes. but I don't think that would be enough.
Realmuto is in his first year of arbitration, and the projection is he goes from $525k in 2017 to about $4.2M in 2018. Then he has two more years of arbitration/control. There is some incentive for the Fish to trade him at this price, but as ml1 says, it will take more than one good young shortstop. And the Fish do have Rojas at short who is young, cheap, and controllable for a few more years and a decent player last year.
I can see taking a package of Rosario and Peterson or Szapucki (top left handed pitching prospects) plus perhaps taking Castro's salary on (if another middling prospect were tossed in). But I am not sure I would recommend it to the Mets. And it is an inter-division deal so those are always more dicey.
ml1 said:
NotoriousEAM said:
If you're a Mets fan...who would you give up to get JT Realmuto? I love that dude. Would you give up Rosario?
yes. but I don't think that would be enough.
I like Realmuto, but based on the above posts the Mets would only have him for three years before free agency. That has to lower the price. You can't throw the house at a three year player, and we know if he plays well the Mets won't pay to resign him.
Does David Wright get a chance to win back third base? If you were ownership would you give him this year to prove he's able or tell him "goodbye" if he's not?
Wright is finished. The team worked with him to keep insurance paying his salary for that last few years.
Give Wright a front office job and free up the space for a younger player.
Almost no one is more than a three year player these days. And if they sign for more years the team is more than likely to regret it come year four or five (or even year three).
FilmCarp said:
I like Realmuto, but based on the above posts the Mets would only have him for three years before free agency. That has to lower the price. You can't throw the house at a three year player, and we know if he plays well the Mets won't pay to resign him.
FilmCarp said:
Wright is finished. The team worked with him to keep insurance paying his salary for that last few years.
I totally agree. In a way, the David Wright situation and Eli Manning are similar in that ownership understands how important they are to the fan base and is allowing them a lot of flexibility in determining their fate which, unfortunately, will prevent a player from getting a shot.
Did you hear about the rumors of the Mets and Evan Longoria??
Nope. I hear San Francisco is trying to trade for him, but has too many other high priced contracts.
Longo carries a six year locked in contract escalating from $13.5M in 2018 to $19.5M in 2022. That is a lot to carry for a guy who is 32 and strikes out as much as he does even now.
NotoriousEAM said:
Did you hear about the rumors of the Mets and Evan Longoria??
Oh, just great. The Mets are talking to Adrian Gonzalez. The guy's back is perhaps 1% better than David Wright's, he is coming off of his worst year ever, he is 35 years old, and the Braves thought so little of him that they outright released him and will eat the rest of his 2018 contract.
This is the guy the Mets are talking to. SMH.
Evan Longoria was traded to the Giants for a couple of really good young prospects (especially an infielder, Christian Arroyo) and a one year rental on Denard Span ($11M in 2018 plus a $4M buyout in 2019). Plus Tampa Bay will kick in some unspecified cash to offset the really expensive remaining contract for Longoria (as noted above, $86M through 2022 and a $5M buyout for 2023).
Tampa Bay really got the better of this deal, even if they wind up sending heavy cash to the Giants. Longoria's bat really slowed down a lot the last four years, although he is a stellar third baseman and he is still an above-average bat for third base. His power numbers will not be helped by playing 81 games in AT&T Park which was by far the least home-run friendly of all MLB parks in 2017. SF is locked into a huge contract from age 32 through 36.
Don't look Mets Fans--this will hurt.
The Nats keep getting slightly better every day, signing important pieces to fill in around their otherwise pretty damned good core team. A long-relief/spot starter here, a solid left-handed bat off the bench/1B platoon player there.
Meanwhile the Mets are in front on the Adrian Gonzalez hit list.......Ugh!
Mets make big move--extend Alderson's contract two more years!
Not the announcement Mets fans were hoping for in their Christmas stockings.
I am trying to figure out the Mets' strategy this off-season. They shed a ton of salary with Granderson, Walker, and Bruce leaving, and insurance has been paying a huge chunk of Wright's salary the last few years (75% of his salary when he is on the DL).** I know many Mets fans blame the Wilpons for being misers and not spending on the team and I am beginning to believe them. (Love the comment section nickname for the owners--"The Coupons").
Hard to understand why the Mets are not hot in the Moustakas hunt for a third baseman or the Hosmer hunt for a first baseman--then again, I can also see why top FAs would not want to come to Citifield. It is one of the worst hitters parks in America and there is an absolute lack of a clear vision from the Executive suites.
**Wright has three years left at $20M, $15M, and $12M--meaning insurance will cover $35.25M of the $47M owed to him. In fact, they are better off if he does not play one single inning, because as soon as he is activated a 60 day insurance freeze out kicks in even if he goes back on the DL the next day.
I just hate this free agent dumpster diving from the Mets. Why couldn't they have signed Matt Adams? He agreed to a one-year deal for $4m. The Mets can't afford that? He would've fit the 1B need, lefty bat with some power. Not a great glove but he's a solid hitter and certainly good fill-in while Dominic Smith gets his feet wet. And he's 29! But we'll get the aging Adrian Gonzalez, if we're lucky.
Exactly. That is why I posted what I did about the Nats versus the Mets. It is depressing as all hell for Mets' fans to watch. And there seems to be no good financial reason and no good financial strategy for this team, other than to muddle through haphazardly.
The Phillies are trying, although they may be a year or two away from being very good.
The Braves are trying a new reboot at least, although the front office shenanigans may have derailed them for a year or so. Anthopoulos is reputed to be a top-notch GM and supposedly has a free hand to rebuild the team.
But the Mets are moribund and deadly boring. However, they should be able to finish above the Fish in 2018. Um, maybe.
NotoriousEAM said:
I just hate this free agent dumpster diving from the Mets. Why couldn't they have signed Matt Adams? He agreed to a one-year deal for $4m. The Mets can't afford that? He would've fit the 1B need, lefty bat with some power. Not a great glove but he's a solid hitter and certainly good fill-in while Dominic Smith gets his feet wet. And he's 29! But we'll get the aging Adrian Gonzalez, if we're lucky.
Matt Adams is a low OBP, replacement level platoon player. There's a reason he only got $4MM to be a backup player. The Mets might as well give the lefty platoon slot to Dom Smith.
I'm waiting for them to find a 2B, and I think they're just waiting out the market. If Neil Walker or Jason Kipnis is playing 2B for them on Opening Day, I'll be satisfied. Then 1B can be a Flores/Smith platoon.
it looks like waiting is probably the smart move, even if fans are getting anxious and angry
As teams cut costs this winter, middle-class free agents are left out in the cold
I don't mind waiting on free agents. I do mind never being in the hunt for good trades, like Realmuto.
And that, my friendly Mets fans, is why the Yankees and Red Sox and Nationals and Angels and even A's are all better teams to root for than the Mets. Because it is not simply a matter of waiting--it is a matter of having a strategy and executing it. If your only strategy is to wait then you are not going to be active and you are not going to plug holes with those very same middle of the road players that others are signing. You are not going to make that one signing that, while perhaps more than you want to pay, will gel your lineup and propel you to the next level (like a Hosmer). You are going to get stuck with a gimpy Adrian Gonzalez at first base teamed up with a frustratingly inept Dominic Smith. Worst of all, you are sending a weak and exceedingly boring message to your team, fans, and the rest of the league.
Of course, you could get lucky and have all those injured starters come back strong and healthy, and Smith could rise to expectations, and Conforto could start swinging a bat again, and Bruce and Walker could sign for two year contracts and hit like they used to,and Rosario will continue to develop (a pretty good bet), and Cespedes will play a full season and justify his contract, and and and........I really wish the Mets would do something to get me more excited for 2018.
the prospects the Mets had were traded away in '15. Amed Rosario is the only MLB-ready prospect they have. You could make a case for trading him, but given how bad (really bad) the IF defense was last year, it might be a mistake.
And without high-level prospects, there are not going to be too many trades.
There are arguments to be made that just hanging on to Rosario and getting a competent 2B will improve the Mets by 10 games next year. It's hard to even describe to people how bad the Mets shortstops were before Rosario arrived last year. But even if you don't buy into the metrics, you could see how bad they were. If you do buy into the metrics, you know that the Mets infield gave up a ton of runs, more than any other team in the NL in the first half of 2017 (and it wasn't even close).
https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/mets-have-the-worst-infield-defense-in-baseball/241561556
My concern isn't that they don't have a strategy or they don't have enough talent. They do have enough talent to contend, assuming they don't have the injuries to key players next year. I'm mostly concerned that they don't have 2B and 1B settled. Asdrubal Cabrera is being overlooked, but his fielding at 3B was pretty good, and even though he was injured a bit, he hit 14 HR and had a .351 OBP last year.
If they land a decent 2B, and decide to platoon Smith and Flores at 1B, their lineup won't be terrible. Smith was awful overall, but he did hit 9 HR and drive in 23 runs in 146 PA against righties. And Flores killed lefties with a .862 OPS.
If the pitchers stay healthy, and the IF and OF defense is good, the team will contend. If the pitchers are hurt again, it will be another 90 loss season.
I have concluded that Alderson is not just a cheap GM, but that he is also a bad GM. Given all the bad years, the farm system should be in better condition than it is. Look what the Yankees did without having a single losing year. Alderson did well in the Dickie trade (but not well in the way he was expecting to do well), he (reluctantly) got Cespedes and he drafted Conforto. But his record as GM is really sub par.
Omar Minaya signed as a special assistant to Alderson. Like!
Excellent talent evaluator.
I can't see him being listened to much. He is totally not sabermetric and Alderson is totally wedded to it. But much of the Mets talent in their two good years was actually his doing.
Yeah, Alderson could see him as GM-in-waiting and freeze him out.
Agreed on the talent in the 2 good years.
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No. 1: Thank you, mfpark, for keeping this thread going. As someone who is happier to receive winter baseball news than to seek it out, I really enjoy your updates, not to mention your commentary. My scant responses are no indication of the level of my attention or appreciation.
No. 2: I meant to compliment you earlier on your idiom above. Most people these days go around talking about bills that are somehow ill fitted — but if there’s a bill of wordsmiths somewhere with space for another name, yours can fill it.