Irma -- Updated 9/11

Ugh mamma.  I hope that they are safe and that their home is spared.  Keeping them in my thoughts.  

mammabear said:
 
Yes, they are "retired" but still work.  They have nothing else. 

debby said:

Horrible. Is this their year-round residence?

mammabear said:

My parents are assuming their home in Naples will be under water and that they will lose just about everything. It's such a devastating thought. I feel for them

www.fema.gov/hurricane-irma-rumor-control

From the NHC:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL112017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity. An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near 105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt. The planes have reported a double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West. Irma's intensity has been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air Force mission.

Irma has stuttered near the north coast of Cuba for the past few hours, which may be a harbinger of the north-northwestward turn that we've been waiting for. In any event, Irma appears to be moving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually shifting away from the north coast of Cuba. With the hurricane located near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn north-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west coast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours. Because of Irma's hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little left of the previous one.

Although it is likely that the eye will move near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf coast. If an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the Straits of Florida. After that time, however, southwesterly shear is expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then continue increasing through 48 hours. This shear, in addition to Irma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a weakening trend after 24 hours. The new intensity guidance calls for an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it conservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models. Irma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida west coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size, will produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in the Florida Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since tropical-storm- force winds are already affecting portions of the coast.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

I am reading my insurance policy now that it is heading straight for Tampa-St Pete and I don't think I bought the right amount. And I don't think I have flood insurance.  

Corrected: condo assoc holds flood insurance. It's part of our monthly dues.

(Our experience is that the insurance companies find any excuse they can to not pay. They'll re-define what's a 'storm event' and which part of the damage is actual 'flood', 'storm', 'water' or some kind of by-product of the event)

D's elderly cousins send out group periodic reports from West Palm Beach, so none of the rest of us overly panic. Frankly, apart from the Canadian branch, I think everyone else is almost as threatened by now. 

category 4.

This is a prime example of how there are other factors besides water temp at play when it comes to hurricane intensification. This is called an upper level water vapor satellite image. The hurricane is obviously visible near Florida. You can see that clouds are streaming away from it all the way up to the North Atlantic. This is evidenced that the upper level jet is helping to evacuate "outflow" away from the hurricane. This helps to intensify the cyclone rapidly. 

Definately moving north northwest now.

Click on satellite image to animate.

We're in the closet now. Severe tornado warning. Technology is amazing.

Tje Keys are getting creamed right now.

I'm so freaking hungry.

@debby <3

All clear.

The SW corner is getting pounded

Thanks. We're out now.

doulamomma said:

@debby <3

As of the 5:00 NHC update, Irma has made the turn to the north-northwest as expected, and is now gaining forward speed towards the southwestern portion of the Florida mainland.

The guidance continues to be tightly clustered along to forecast track, and the NHC made no adjustments in terms of direction.  Intensity is also on track, with Irma expected to arrive at the south western tip of Florida as a cat 4, and at Tampa as a cat 3.

Tornado watches now extend up the east coast and central Florida to just south of Orlando.

Boynton Beach is just starting a severe tornado warning, and it will move up a town every 5 minutes or so.

You can see that the eye is now skirting the mainland.

conandrob240 said:

I am reading my insurance policy now that it is heading straight for Tampa-St Pete and I don't think I bought the right amount. And I don't think I have flood insurance.  

If you have a mortgage and are in a flood zone you would be required to have flood insurance.  If you don't have a mortgage ?.   For our house In St Pete the hurricane insurance was a budget buster. $4500 a year for a 2000 square ft house (not in a flood zone) with a $15,000 deductible for hurricane damage, and that is with a discount for a reinforced hurricane roof.  St Pete is such a beautiful city.  It looks like half of it will be under water.  On Beach Avenue bordering down town and right on the bay, there are several blocks of low rise buildings that is a giant senior living facility with hundreds and hundreds of elderly.  I can't imagine how they will evacuate them all. In St Pete there are thousands of homes in zone A. Thousands   of people will lose their homes.   My heart is breaking.  The storm surge in Tampa bay could be the biggest story here.

This link:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093910.shtml?inundation##contents

Is to the NHC storm surge map.  This is a constantly updating forecast, so I am not going to screenshot it.  You can use it to get a visual fix on the areas in the most danger based on the most updated forecast.

You guys are doing an amazing job btw.

Still here! Power's been flickering, but is on for now. Numerous tornado warnings lit up our phones throughout the night, and the actual hurricane is just beginning to hit here in Boynton Beach with intense winds and torrential rain. The sound is scary as hell, and it will only get worse throughout the day.

The images from Key West are just heartbreaking.

I want to echo Sbenois' thanks for all the great information you guys are sharing with us.  Being up here while my mom is riding out the storm has been a lesson in powerlessness for me.  But being able to get sober, solid information and reasonable conjectures has helped me ride the emotional storm.

Yes, looked further. The condo HOA dues includes the hurricane & flood insurance. My insurance covers interior stuff and personal items but it looks like I made it way too low! $50k would have to cover all interior rebuild, windows, plumbing, etc. Let's hope for the best. Tracking further West again so maybe it'll be a little better than expected 

sarahzm said:

conandrob240 said:

I am reading my insurance policy now that it is heading straight for Tampa-St Pete and I don't think I bought the right amount. And I don't think I have flood insurance.  

If you have a mortgage and are in a flood zone you would be required to have flood insurance.  If you don't have a mortgage ?.   For our house In St Pete the hurricane insurance was a budget buster. $4500 a year for a 2000 square ft house (not in a flood zone) with a $15,000 deductible for hurricane damage, and that is with a discount for a reinforced hurricane roof.  St Pete is such a beautiful city.  It looks like half of it will be under water.  On Beach Avenue bordering down town and right on the bay, there are several blocks of low rise buildings that is a giant senior living facility with hundreds and hundreds of elderly.  I can't imagine how they will evacuate them all. In St Pete there are thousands of homes in zone A. Thousands   of people will lose their homes.   My heart is breaking.  The storm surge in Tampa bay could be the biggest story here.

Family has just reported that the elders' solution is to take out their hearing aids, so the winds don't scare them so much! Cousin A slept with earplugs, so she got a relatively good night. Now they're pretending to be in the middle of a disaster movie, playing cards... 

I love this family's courage!

We're off to bed here, prayers that all families will be safe despite property damage. 

newest NHC forecast wind. Up over 100 almost the whole SW FL coast.

Today is the same day Donna hit the Keys in 1960. It was a storm of very similar strength and path to Florida as Irene. 

Thankfully at least Irene does not seem to do what Donna did after Florida, which was go back into the Atlantic and go up the coast as a hurricane. Our basement in Queens flooded from it and I still have lots of water damaged family photos as a result. 

I guess contact with Key West has been lost.  Tried to access a few webcams, but they seem to be offline.

To be expected with power out. 

All preparations have been made............all those who intend to evacuate have done so.

There comes a time in everyones life that all we can do is pray.

We've reached that point.

One of my husband's friends moved to just west of Ft Laudedale. They lost power at 8am, so I can only imagine that the Keys have it much worse. Not surprised at all if webcam, etc, are down.