Irma -- Updated 9/11
I'll field this one. Still hard to say. The models are still divergent. SC is in play, but it's hard to know if it's from a second landfall after it goes over Florida (more likely; weaker) or a first landfall a la Matthew last year (stronger; less likely). Also possible it does neither. We will know more in the next couple days.
Dennis_Seelbach said:
Max, just an ask for any insights on coastal South Carolina. We're just south of Myrtle Beach, and totally on edge. Does Irma go inland from Florida, or hug the coast?
My parents are in Naples, FL. They called tonight to say they want to leave tomorrow morning. :/
So now we have two record-setting storms in as many weeks. But please, don't say that the Biblical amount of rain or the catastrophic strength of the winds could possibly have anything to do with rising temperatures caused by climate change.
Dennis_Seelbach said:
callista said:
Dennis, my sister is in Pawleys. I hope it gives you guys a miss!
Where in Pawleys?
Reunion Hall
There is a catastrophic storm that is about to potentially impact millions of people. Can we get past landfall before you guys turn this thread into political nonsense that's not backed up by science? Please?
WxNut - I think a lot of the Climate Change - storm connection have been Gore's Inconvenient films. I haven't seen the last one - and it's been awhile since seeing the original, but from what I recall he was pushing the narrative that global warming was the reason for frequency and intensity of these storms. Would love to hear your take on Gore's research of the subject.
I think gores pursuit is noble. He's pushing a cause that needs attention, and for that I applaud him. But he's created a monster. Not everything can be attribute to climate change, as some overarching attribution blanket. There is plenty of work yet to be done on this going in both directions. Hurricanes are complicated beasts that need perfect conditions to do what the last two have done.
So to all who continue to push this narrative I ask two questions:
where we're all the major hurricanes impacting the US over the last ten years?
Did climate change begin ten days ago? Or is it just that all of a sudden we all suffer from confirmation bias?
jamie said:
WxNut - I think a lot of the Climate Change - storm connection have been Gore's Inconvenient films. I haven't seen the last one - and it's been awhile since seeing the original, but from what I recall he was pushing the narrative that global warming was the reason for frequency and intensity of these storms. Would love to hear your take on Gore's research of the subject.
Thank you
WxNut2.0 said:
There is a catastrophic storm that is about to potentially impact millions of people. Can we get past landfall before you guys turn this thread into political nonsense that's not backed up by science? Please?
I'm so sorry this has degenerated into this. Truly I apologize.
sarahzm said:
Thank you
WxNut2.0 said:
There is a catastrophic storm that is about to potentially impact millions of people. Can we get past landfall before you guys turn this thread into political nonsense that's not backed up by science? Please?
this you take your argument elsewhere and stop high jacking this thread. There is a catastrophic storm on the way. Many of us have friends and loved ones in its path. We don't care about your arguments. Stay on topic, post info that's actually helpful or get off this board
Again, I'm so very sorry this happened. I truly intended only to supplement max and help him report what's happening and keep you informed. That's what's most important right now.
sarahzm said:
this you take your argument elsewhere and stop high jacking this thread. There is a catastrophic storm on the way. Many of us have friends and loved ones in its path. We don't care about your arguments. Stay on topic, post info that's actually helpful or get off this board
We will. Bye.
fairplay said:
WxNut2.0 said:
Again, I'm so very sorry this happened. I truly intended only to supplement max and help him report what's happening and keep you informed. That's what's most important right now.
sarahzm said:
this you take your argument elsewhere and stop high jacking this thread. There is a catastrophic storm on the way. Many of us have friends and loved ones in its path. We don't care about your arguments. Stay on topic, post info that's actually helpful or get off this board
Carry on, experts!
Hey guys - it's a good debate - just start a new thread. Now let's get a Irma update . . .
Hurricane Irma is moving through the northern Leeward Islands as a Category 5.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic.
Irma will target the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico Wednesday into early Thursday.
Parts of Hispañola, the Bahamas, and Cuba are also in the path of Irma late this week.
Irma is increasingly likely to target parts of the Florida peninsula as a dangerous hurricane this weekend.
This is an instrument called a dropsonde that takes a vertical profile of that atmosphere after being dropped from a hurricane hunter plane. This is one of the most incredible images I've ever seen in meteorology. This hurricane, a few hundred feet above the surface, has winds at 199 knots. That's 229 mph. Absolutely mind blowing intensity.
So, we have decided to get out of the St Pete-Clearwater area early tomorrow and proceed with our Disney portion of our trip. I want to get away from the gulf. We had a complicated itinerary with husband headed to Pittsburgh so buying him a flight to EWR tomorrow or Thurs just wasn't happening. flights were sold out.
We did fine today- stocked up the car with water, snacks, beer/wine. Filled the tank, found a flashlight to buy and we'll make the drive early tomorrow. Hopefully roads won't be too overrun or crazy. It was a bit of a madhouse today- people driving crazy and long gas lines.
Not sure exactly what to do with condo. We've owned it a grand total of 32 days! Lol. No one else in complex seems to be doing anything like boarding up so I just moved all outside furniture into garage, moved everything away from the windows. will turn off water, unplug everything non essential. If anyone has any other advice, glad for it.
Just out of curiosity, why isn't there a Category 6 for Hurricanes? Is there something intrinsically valuable about a 1-5 rating? Is it because we have 5 fingers on our hands? What's the story?
don't you bother your pretty little head about that.
tom said:
So now we have two record-setting storms in as many weeks. But please, don't say that the Biblical amount of rain or the catastrophic strength of the winds could possibly have anything to do with rising temperatures caused by climate change.
hmm, wonder why that is? could it be......
WxNut2.0 said:
This is an instrument called a dropsonde that takes a vertical profile of that atmosphere after being dropped from a hurricane hunter plane. This is one of the most incredible images I've ever seen in meteorology. This hurricane, a few hundred feet above the surface, has winds at 199 knots. That's 229 mph. Absolutely mind blowing intensity.
and I'm guessing, by definition, we now have an anomalous storm, right?
WxNut2.0 said: No. Many if not most Atlantic hurricanes form where Irma formed. Nothing anomalous.drummerboy said: I thought I read somewhere that Irma has started further east than any other storm. Is that correct, and if so, wouldn't that make it at least a bit of an "anomalous" storm?
Irma has made landfall on the island of Barbuda early this morning as a strong cat 5 hurricane with winds at the ground and at the eyewall of 185 mph. It is expected to continue WNW for the next 24 - 48 hours, passing over or near: * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Guadeloupe * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
The model tracks have continued a trend of shifting back towards the east. The NHC has also shifted the forecast to the east but are being more cautious, reflecting the instability in the guidance. In general, the forecast puts the storm at or near south Florida late Saturday or Sunday. A direct hit is still uncertain, as many of the model elements are now showing east of Florida. The forecast and tracking are complicated by the presence of Jose to the east and Katia to the west.
I wish we could give a more definitive forecast track, but it would be irresponsible to say, this storm will be at x point in five days. The read in the cone of uncertainty at 5 days is 225 miles, and Florida is only 150 miles wide, so you see the problem. The possibility that the storm will only graze Florida's east coast and run north to the South Carolina coast is now back on the table as well. A Florida west/gulf coast solution is less likely but not impossible.
I will post the NHC foecast cone below. You can see in the graphic how wide the cone of uncertainty is.
It is important to focus on the entire cone, not just the center track, as the storm can track anywhere within the cone. It is also important to remember that the storm is large and fierce, and the effects can and will be felt a long way from the center. A Florida east coast track that runs out to sea could still bring heavy rain and a storm surge, even if the full effect of the wind is not on land.
An off the east coast of Florida track could also bring the remnants through this area in the form of heavy rain midweek.
From the NHC:
"KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, today. Preparations should be rushed to completion.
2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, as well as the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, with hurricane watches for portions of Haiti and the central Bahamas. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through Friday.
3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.
4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts."
drummerboy said:
hmm, wonder why that is? could it be......
WxNut2.0 said:
This is an instrument called a dropsonde that takes a vertical profile of that atmosphere after being dropped from a hurricane hunter plane. This is one of the most incredible images I've ever seen in meteorology. This hurricane, a few hundred feet above the surface, has winds at 199 knots. That's 229 mph. Absolutely mind blowing intensity.
and I'm guessing, by definition, we now have an anomalous storm, right?
WxNut2.0 said: No. Many if not most Atlantic hurricanes form where Irma formed. Nothing anomalous.drummerboy said: I thought I read somewhere that Irma has started further east than any other storm. Is that correct, and if so, wouldn't that make it at least a bit of an "anomalous" storm?
Take this to another thread or I will ask @jamie to delete your posts.
Here is a link to drummerboy's thread on the effect of climate change on this hurricane season. While this is a legitimate conversation, let's have it over there so that people looking for short term information on Irma et al can find it easily here.
Jose at this time is strengthening in the in Atlantc, and only looks to be a threat to Bermuda.
Katia is steady in the western Gulf of Mexico, is unlikely to become a hurricane, and is effecting Mexico.
Please don't start with your confirmation bias party until after the storm is over.
And given that this is still on topic: the storm formed in a source region that gives birth to 70% of hurricanes. You asked if it's formation was record breakingly far east, the answer to which is still no.
drummerboy said:
hmm, wonder why that is? could it be......
WxNut2.0 said:
This is an instrument called a dropsonde that takes a vertical profile of that atmosphere after being dropped from a hurricane hunter plane. This is one of the most incredible images I've ever seen in meteorology. This hurricane, a few hundred feet above the surface, has winds at 199 knots. That's 229 mph. Absolutely mind blowing intensity.
and I'm guessing, by definition, we now have an anomalous storm, right?
WxNut2.0 said: No. Many if not most Atlantic hurricanes form where Irma formed. Nothing anomalous.drummerboy said: I thought I read somewhere that Irma has started further east than any other storm. Is that correct, and if so, wouldn't that make it at least a bit of an "anomalous" storm?
I know. I need to get better at ignoring him.
max_weisenfeld said:
You really don't have to answer his every post.....
In more directly related news, the overnight models have really taken quite a shift. There's actually a pretty substantial consensus both within and across models that this storm may miss Florida entirely to the east. I have the feeling that's why nhc shifted the cone so far to the east. Would like to see more consistency here run-to-run. But man this would be good, at least in the short term. That said, puts the Carolinas very much back in play.
I'm also glad the GFS stopped showing that sub 900 low. I new it would never verify but damn
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Max, just an ask for any insights on coastal South Carolina. We're just south of Myrtle Beach, and totally on edge. Does Irma go inland from Florida, or hug the coast?