Iowa predictions?

nohero said:

I suspect that's the strategy behind letting him onto the stage in Nevada.  For all the handwringing about "bending the rules", the debate stage is not the best outlet for Bloomberg to get his message out before Super Tuesday. 

 he's not a guy who likes to be challenged.  If they all go after him, we'll likely see the pissy, churlish "how dare you question me" Mike Bloomberg.

nohero said:

On page 1 of this thread, I went with the "conventional wisdom" that Biden and Sanders would be the top finishers.  That didn't happen.

I think the real story isn't just Pete's success, but also Bernie falling short.  After 4 years of effectively campaigning, and after getting the Democrats to tailor the structure of the caucuses, to his advantage, he still got only about a quarter of the vote.  In other words, he did worse than he did the last time.

Sanders and Biden or Sanders and Buttigieg, the result isn't really any different for Bernie. The fact that Biden placed fourth instead of first is the real takeaway here.  If Buttigieg can beat Biden in NH and do respectably well in SC (a big if) it will be time for Biden to take his rightful place in history as a footnote to the Obama Administration.

I think in the absence of Elizabeth Warren Bernie would have done much better. Like in the 40-45% range.

I think there may be some Progressive voters who are happy to have an alternative to a septuagenarian white guy (albeit with a septuagenarian white woman).

Also, it's just one caucus. There may be a huge shift by the end of February.