Hot Stove League 2023 Version
Swanson to the quietly revamped Cubs, 7 years, $177MM. With Bellinger in centerfield and Hoerner shifting to second base, the Cubs have solid defense up the middle which will make their pitchers better.
Across town the Chisox signed Benintendi to a 5 year, $75MM deal. Another superb defender who gets on base and moves runners up, although not a lot of power for a left fielder. I am kind of surprised the Yankees did not re-sign him. Given all the other power on the team, his solid bat and fielding would fit in nicely. Certainly a better presence than Hicks.
Justin Turner signs with Red Sox on a two year deal, with a player opt-out after the first year. There are conflicting reports on the terms. First I saw it was at $8.3MM for the 1st year and $11.4MM for the 2nd year; now reports are $15.3MM for the 1st year and $7.7MM for the 2nd year, with lots of bonuses tossed in. Either way, a relatively (stress on "relatively") low price these days.
Turner is 38 years old, and last year he had one of the worst starts to a season since Clay Bellinger and Max Muncy (ahem). But he had a torrid second half of the season, and some have blamed the lockout and COVID protocols for his slow start. Not sure I buy that, but if he can be the second half player then this is a good signing.
Where he plays will be interesting to see. Devers is locked in at third base, and the Sox have a hot prospect they want to use at 1st base this year (Tristan Casas). They let Hosmer go to make room for Casas, so as of now he is their likely guy to start the season at 1st. I guess they will do a rotation with Turner taking a lot of DH at bats and spelling the other two at the corners.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around Joey Gallo signing for 11 million. 160 average and 46% strikeouts and he got a raise. Boras is a genius.
Gallo will be a prime beneficiary of the anti shift rule. In fact, thats why the Yankees got him in the first place hoping he could justify himself until then, which he clearly couldnt.
11 mm probably a steal for Gallo. Would have made more sense in TX.
Remember Rizzo barely cracked .220 and got effectively twice that. More HRs yes, better glove, possibly,
Seth Lugo signs with the Padres, where he gets a chance to be the fifth starter. Slots in well behind Musgrove, Darvish, Martinez and Snell.
This is a good signing for him. He has five pitches and he should be able to give a solid 5-6 innings most starts. $7.5MM in 2023 with a $7.5MM player option for 2024.
DanDietrich said:
I'm still trying to wrap my head around Joey Gallo signing for 11 million. 160 average and 46% strikeouts and he got a raise. Boras is a genius.
Gallo is a very good defensive outfielder, which is a benefit. When he hits the ball he hits it damned hard, and square on the barrel. The problem is, as you note, he misses a lot, too.
The anti-shift rule may help him as Barney notes--he saw the shift at a higher rate than almost anyone in baseball last year. But he basically gives you one of three outcomes each time at bat--home run, walk, or strikeout--so we shall see if he can adjust to hit more ground balls.
At $11MM for one year he is probably at or even a bit below market, as crazy as that sounds. He is only 29 years old and they are counting on a bounceback year (as the Cubs are with Bellinger, who is older and more impacted by an injury). Having lost out on Correa and every other prominent free agent, the Twins have money and need to do something, so Gallo it is.
mfpark said:
DanDietrich said:
I'm still trying to wrap my head around Joey Gallo signing for 11 million. 160 average and 46% strikeouts and he got a raise. Boras is a genius.
Gallo is a very good defensive outfielder, which is a benefit. When he hits the ball he hits it damned hard, and square on the barrel. The problem is, as you note, he misses a lot, too.
The anti-shift rule may help him as Barney notes--he saw the shift at a higher rate than almost anyone in baseball last year. But he basically gives you one of three outcomes each time at bat--home run, walk, or strikeout--so we shall see if he can adjust to hit more ground balls.
At $11MM for one year he is probably at or even a bit below market, as crazy as that sounds. He is only 29 years old and they are counting on a bounceback year (as the Cubs are with Bellinger, who is older and more impacted by an injury). Having lost out on Correa and every other prominent free agent, the Twins have money and need to do something, so Gallo it is.
if Gallo is the same guy he was up until the moment the Yanks acquired him, it's a steal. But the abolition of extreme shifts isn't really expected to help anyone that much, even Gallo. Teams are still going to move the 2B way over toward the hole, and the SS one step left of the 2B bag when he's batting. Maybe he'll gain 10 pts on his BA if he's lucky. Teams have charted this all out, and it's one of those things that helps a team with run prevention fairly significantly if it gets them even one or two extra outs a game, but doesn't really hurt an individual player as much as we might think.
if Gallo is the same guy he was up until the moment the Yanks acquired him, it's a steal. But the abolition of extreme shifts isn't really expected to help anyone that much, even Gallo.
And of course none of this matters if he strikes out a lot.
this is behind a paywall at The Athletic, so I don't like to share too much of their content for free, but here's a few tidbits from an article by Jayson Stark that they published on Dec. 5.
How MLB’s new rules are shaping the 2022-23 offseason and changing the art of team building
“Relatively speaking, we think the benefit of no shifts will be fairly small,” said an executive of one data-driven team who was among those granted anonymity for this story so they could speak freely. “Even for the hitters it’s likely to help, I don’t think we’re talking 30 extra hits a year.”
“Not all groundballs are the same,” another exec said. “We’ve done the research, like every team has. And the guys who see the biggest benefit are guys like Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo; in other words, not that guy who hits it on the ground at 91 miles an hour. It’s the guy who hits it on the ground at 106 — hard enough to get it by infielders standing on the dirt.”
In the minor leagues last season, only about one more groundball out of every 20 made it through the right side in leagues that banned the shift. Yep, one out of 20. So why does this new rule even matter? Because everyone agrees it will at least change the landscape for a fairly small group of pull-heavy left-handed mashers, especially in the big leagues.
and who are the lefty hitters who pulled the most 100+ MPH ground balls to their pull side? (spoiler alert, not Joey Gallo)
But which remaining free agents could get a boost from seeing the shift disappear? Here’s your top three, via Statcast, in most pulled groundballs hit to the right side at 100 mph or harder in 2022, among still-unsigned free agents:
Brandon Nimmo — 22
David Peralta — 19
Josh Bell* — 16
(*as a left-handed hitter only)
(Source: Statcast / Baseball Savant)
I'm glad to see Drury get $17 million for two years from the angels. Never a big star, but always working.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out with Correa. It seems to me his best bet is to make something work, since most other teams won't make him a long term offer.
DanDietrich said:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out with Correa. It seems to me his best bet is to make something work, since most other teams won't make him a long term offer.
My guess? He signs his contract but there will be an out clause if he winds up on the IL for reasons related to that broken leg, similar to what Ivan Rodriguez signed with the Tigers (also a Boras client). I also note that Correa has never so far been in the IL as a result of the broken leg; that if the plate has to be replaced that is relatively routine with perhaps 6 weeks down time; and you can bet that the Mets are laying off most of the risk through insurance.
Giants sign Conforto. Two year $36MM contract with a player option after 1st year is better than I would have expected. If he has a bounce back year, a good signing for both him and the team. But a risky one. Good luck to him and the Giants.
I never felt confident when he came to the plate in a big situation--outside of the good year he had in 2019. Like Bellinger, the question now is whether his shoulder has healed enough to give him back his power and bat speed.
Soul_29 said:
Yah, I saw that. Still am betting he is a Met one way or the other. Might be a big game of chicken and waiting to see who blinks first.
mfpark said:
Soul_29 said:
Yah, I saw that. Still am betting he is a Met one way or the other. Might be a big game of chicken and waiting to see who blinks first.
I'm scratching my head because A) I assumed that the Mets would have seen the Giants physical BEFORE making their offer and B) Having seen said physical, that's why the Mets offer was LOWER (years/dollars) than the Giants offer.
Soul_29 said:
I'm scratching my head because A) I assumed that the Mets would have seen the Giants physical BEFORE making their offer and B) Having seen said physical, that's why the Mets offer was LOWER (years/dollars) than the Giants offer.
Same here. And Correa is digging his heels in pretty hard. He was looking for a long-term deal with the Astros and they passed on it; then he took a short-term deal with the Twinkies in order to go for that long-term deal this year. Then the Giants dumped him after the physical, and there are problems with the Mets over the physical. Not a glorious track record when three over-spending teams pass on long-term deals.
I bet there will be plenty of teams willing to take him on for a one-year or two-year really high deal, but he may be toast with regards to a longer-term deal unless he agrees to an IL clause. Even if the leg is not truly a problem in the long-run, the optics are pretty bad.
Mets re-sign Ottavino to two-year deal. Two years, $14.5MM, player option after 2023. A very nice re-signing for the Mets, who know have a bullpen with Diaz, Robertson, Raley, and Ottavino. They are not letting the Correa situation distract them. And they continue to spend the way other teams could but won't (not that there is any collusion out there, oh no.....).
DaveSchmidt said:
Kimbrel to the Phillies.
Correa’s X-rays to the Mets.
Which Kimbrel will the Phillies get? He has been a tale of two relievers the last few years. Sometimes still lights out, other times pedestrian to unreliable. His signing puts the Phillies over the penalty tax limit, but not by much--perhaps a paltry $3MM in luxury tax (these numbers are nuts).
mfpark said:
Which Kimbrel will the Phillies get?
Kimbrel vs. ARI in 2022: 8 G, 7.2 IP, 11.74 ERA.
Kimbrel vs. everyone else: 55 G, 52.1 IP, 2.58 ERA.
Eovaldi signs with the Rangers for two plus a potential third year. A solid number three starter provided his back holds up--which is a big question.
DaveSchmidt said:
Kimbrel vs. ARI in 2022: 8 G, 7.2 IP, 11.74 ERA.
Kimbrel vs. everyone else: 55 G, 52.1 IP, 2.58 ERA.
A pretty amazing stat.
mfpark said:
A pretty amazing stat.
Luckily, the Phils play only 7 G against the Dbacks this season, not 8.
Red Sox sign Corey Kluber to a one year deal at $10MM, with a team option for 2nd year and a bunch of incentives.
The Red Sox are looking like a hot mess again for 2023. A team that seemed so well run in past years looks like it has lost its way. Not sure if the owners are trying to cut back on spending (they are way under the cap so far), if it is poor front office management, or a lot of bad luck (as in Chris Sales injuries).
When Kluber is the big FA pitcher signing who may wind up the number 1, you are in trouble in the AL East. He is a serviceable and perhaps durable arm, but he is not the ace that he was in his Cleveland days.
The Sox now have Pivetta and Kluber slotted as top of the rotation, with Sale and Paxton in the middle. The latter two have been injured the last few years, so there is no guessing their condition now. Behind them are several young and relatively untested arms.
The position player signings this year will also not wow anyone. Yoshida lit up the Japanese leagues, but it is unknown how he will fare against MLB pitching for 162 games. As a lefty he will need to go the other way a lot to take advantage of the Green Monster, but Japanese players seem better trained in this than US players.
Justin Turner was the other big signing, and while he had a good second half last year for the Dodgers, his first half was awful. He probably becomes the full-time DH, with some days at third when Devers sits or DH's, and even some time at 1st to spell the rookie prospect Casas. Still, losing Boegarts and Martinez hurts this offense more than Yoshida and Turner will likely help, and if the pithing is bad the Sox will again be at the bottom of the East.
I think that they have looked at the division and figured that they have no chance at all.
DanDietrich said:
I think that they have looked at the division and figured that they have no chance at all.
The Red Sox do have a top 11 farm system, with several players just about MLB ready. I wonder if they are making room for the kids to step up later this year and into next year? Sprinkled with a few judicious FA signings they could resemble the Astros and Braves in a few years. Keep an eye on Marcello Mayer (shortstop) later this year and it is expected that Casas (1B) will head north when they break camp.
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I would have liked to have him back.