Debate New Hampshire
Virginia he is polling 29%.
Texas is 25%.
Georgia is 33%
Those are all Super Tuesday states. There's more but I'm supposed to be hanging pictures. Also i don't have time to figure out how fresh that data is.
Klinker said:
What is the next state Biden is expected to win after South Carolina?
(honest question, I am just curious)
He’s neck and neck with Sanders in polls in Nevada, whose caucuses come before S.C.
After S.C. is Super Tuesday, which muddies what you mean by the “next state.”
ETA: Cross-posted.
Does anyone know how delegates are awarded to states? Is it by total population or by the number of registered Democrats?
Klinker said:
Does anyone know how delegates are awarded to states? Is it by total population or by the number of registered Democrats?
good question. I found this. Looks like it's primarily (heh) based on past Presidential voting.
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml
Delegate Allocation Overview
The pledged delegate "base" allocation is determined by the jurisdiction's Presidential vote in 2008, 2012, and 2016; and the jurisdiction's electoral vote allocation based on 2010 census. Jurisdictions beginning their process later in the cycle and neighboring states that concurrently begin their process (aka "clustering") receive bonus delegates [Call to Convention I.].
The unpledged PLEO Democratic (aka Automatic) Delegates consist of Democratic Governors (and the Mayor of DC), Democratic U.S. House members, Democratic U.S. Senators (and the Statehood Senators of DC); DNC members; and distinguished party leaders (current and former Democratic Presidents, Democratic leadership of the U.S. House and Senate, and Chairpersons of the DNC) [Call to Convention IV.B.1.].
Elections, appointments, and deaths from now until the 2020 convention roll call will keep the unpledged delegate count in flux.
DaveSchmidt said:
In the context of the times, Nixon may not have been as loathed by Democrats as Trump is today, but he was close. Ripe for the picking. That’s what gives what happened then more relevance today, I think, than the arguments I’ve seen can easily dismiss. (The moderate Muskie was beating Nixon in a Harris poll in early August 1971 — and maybe other polls, too, but that was the one citation I checked.)
in 1972, Nixon's approval rating was around 60%. He was unpopular with young people but not overall.
Trump’s approval rating is 44%. Nixon at this stage in 1972 was 50%. You see a rise during the year — his visit to China later in February and the SALT treaty in May having something to do with that. Do advances like those, the dirty tricks and the missteps specific to McGovern’s campaign explain the landslide apart from McGovern’s policy prescriptions? Maybe. Nothing to concern 2020 Democrats? Maybe.
mrincredible said:
Virginia he is polling 29%.
Texas is 25%.
Georgia is 33%
Those are all Super Tuesday states. There's more but I'm supposed to be hanging pictures. Also i don't have time to figure out how fresh that data is.
The numbers are the numbers, but I’d take Biden’s poll figs with a grain of salt because I think his candidacy has entered a vicious circle. He did crummy in Iowa which got a lot of attention and dropped his national polling a leg down and also hurt his chances in NH. Assuming he does crummy again in NH, same thing happens, only more seriously because now it’s two bad showings rather than one and even more doubt that he’s the guy. He seems like a lock to win SC but then it’ll be more downhill. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if SC is his first and last primary win.
And I just don’t think he has anything left in the tank to turn things around. This weekend’s ads attacking Pete were clever, but I see them more as a sign of a desperate candidate than anything else.
I don’t think Biden is too conservative or too stupid, as one poster has opined about 672 times now, but he is too damn old. Warren, sanders and Bloomberg are no spring chickens, but they don’t seem to need the old folks home quite yet. Joe does.
Smedley said:
I don’t think Biden is too conservative or too stupid, as one poster has opined about 672 times now, but he is too damn old. Warren, sanders and Bloomberg are no spring chickens, but they don’t seem to need the old folks home quite yet. Joe does.
He would definitely get my vote if he ran for Resident President at Shady Acres.
Smedley said:
Biden is too conservative or too stupid, as one poster has opined about 672 times now
Unlike some candidates, the truth never gets old. Also, by my records, it is 680 times. You probably missed those posts on on the pets threads.
DaveSchmidt said:
Trump’s approval rating is 44%. Nixon at this stage in 1972 was 50%. You see a rise during the year — his visit to China later in February and the SALT treaty in May having something to do with that. Do advances like those, the dirty tricks and the missteps specific to McGovern’s campaign explain the landslide apart from McGovern’s policy prescriptions? Maybe. Nothing to concern 2020 Democrats? Maybe.
Given that half of the voters from 1972 are likely dead, and half the voters this year weren't even born, and given all the other tremendous differences between then and now, not least the terrible campaign run by McGovern, I'm not sure what lessons we take from that election. As klinker is suggesting, maybe the lesson of Democrats running a centrist in 2004 against an unpopular incumbent is the closer parallel. Who knows? None of us, really.
Amy in 3rd in the latest polls, interesting. I would have thought she would be better-suited to do well in Iowa rather than NH, but I imagine she's benefiting from Joe's slippage.
Disclaimer: There have been other polls conducted, and there exist multiple other sources of political news and commentary. Some of this information may show analysis, data, conclusions and commentary that differ from the above referenced link. Readers are advised to review this material in conjunction with the above Smedley-generated post and form their own conclusions.
Smedley said:
Amy in 3rd in the latest polls, interesting. I would have thought she would be better-suited to do well in Iowa rather than NH, but I imagine she's benefiting from Joe's slippage.
Disclaimer: There have been other polls conducted, and there exist multiple other sources of political news and commentary. Some of this information may show analysis, data, conclusions and commentary that differ from the above referenced link. Readers are advised to review this material in conjunction with the above Smedley-generated post and form their own conclusions.
I attribute it to her best debate performance so far. And her Town Hall performance was very good. She had specifics on her education plans, including funding. It gave her time to spell out her plans. As I've posted recently she seems to fit neatly between Biden and Buttigieg in terms of age and experience.
Not sure what will happen when Bloomberg hits Nevada but she seems to be a viable centrist with Warren as the best progressive in my view.
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In the context of the times, Nixon may not have been as loathed by Democrats as Trump is today, but he was close. Ripe for the picking. That’s what gives what happened then more relevance today, I think, than the arguments I’ve seen can easily dismiss. (The moderate Muskie was beating Nixon in a Harris poll in early August 1971 — and maybe other polls, too, but that was the one citation I checked.)