Old storm thread that morphed into thread about non-storm this weekend, Jan 13th

max_weisenfeld

Hope everyone had a safe and happy New Year.

There is a chance of a little snow overnight Wednesday Jan 2 into Thursday Jan 3.  At this time it is a less than 50/50 as the storm, a small fast clipper, looks to be passing south of us through the Maryland/Virginia area.  Temps will be borderline for any accumulation, at best.


max_weisenfeld

As of this morning, there continues to be a chance (50/50 or a bit less) of a little snow overnight tonight, Wed 1/2.  Less than an inch total accumulation if it happens.


Ridley

I just realized that’s the date in the header and not that there‘s a half (1/2) chance of snow. Even though there’s a 50/50 (or a half) chance of snow.

It’s so early. 


max_weisenfeld
ridski said:
I just realized that’s the date in the header and not that there‘s a half (1/2) chance of snow. Even though there’s a 50/50 (or a half) chance of snow.
It’s so early. 

 morning demands coffee


ml1
Formerlyjerseyjack said:
Update?

 it didn't snow.


John
ml1 said:


Formerlyjerseyjack said:
Update?
 it didn't snow.

 How do you know it didn't snow, just not stick? Where you up all night?


ml1
Formerlyjerseyjack said:


ml1 said:

Formerlyjerseyjack said:
Update?
 it didn't snow.
 How do you know it didn't snow, just not stick? Where you up all night?

I'm sure it snowed somewhere


max_weisenfeld

As forecast, the system passed substantially to our south, and we survived unscathed.


drummerboy

Yet, I feel scathed.


mrincredible
drummerboy said:
Yet, I feel scathed.

 Perhaps someone gave you a scathing look and you didn't realize it?


tjohn

So, Max and WxNut, what's the outlook for Sunday.  I have to go to Philly on Sunday and would prefer to not drive in a snowstorm.


conandrob240

maybe start a new thread with snow dates so this isn’t confusing.


drummerboy
tjohn said:
So, Max and WxNut, what's the outlook for Sunday.  I have to go to Philly on Sunday and would prefer to not drive in a snowstorm.

 snowstorm????? I have big plans for Sunday too.


mfpark

From NJ.Com

It's unlikely a "blockbuster" snowstorm will hammer New Jersey this weekend, but forecasters say it remains possible the state will get blanketed with some snow Saturday night into Sunday.

While conditions probably won't be conducive for a major snow event, a storm that is expected to hit Virginia, West Virginia and parts of North Carolina could affect the New Jersey area, according to AccuWeather.com.

The National Weather Service says areas of New Jersey along and south of the Interstate 95 corridor have the best chance of getting snow. Any snow could mix with rain closer to the Jersey Shore.

View image on Twitter

New Jersey could still dodge the snow entirely, though. A high pressure system expected to form over Ontario and Quebec, Canada could push cold, dry air toward our area and cut off potential precipitation from reaching much of Garden State.

Forecasters caution that their confidence is still in the "low to moderate" range with any possible snow still more than three days away.



mfpark

From National Weather Service, Upton:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty northwest winds will slowly begin to diminish Thursday
night as the area remains sandwiched between a departing low
over the Canadian Maritimes and a building high to the west.
Winds will further subside through the day on Friday as the high
continues to build toward the area, but with strong cold air
advection continuing aloft temperatures will only manage to rise
into the mid 20s to around 30. By Friday night, mostly clear
skies and continued diminishing winds will lead to more
favorable radiational cooling conditions, as temperatures fall
well into the teens across many areas outside of New York City.
After another cold and dry day on Saturday, high pressure gives
way to a developing area of low pressure along the Gulf coast.
Relative to 24 hours ago, there is better model consensus that
the northern and southern stream waves will not fully phase,
resulting in a more suppressed storm track as the low emerges
off the North Carolina coast on Sunday. This places the local
area on the northern edge of the system as it passes well east
of the region Sunday into Sunday night. With temperatures cold
enough for snow, maintained chance PoP ahead of the system
Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The evolution of this
system will have to continue to be watched with subsequent model
runs as the energy associated with it still remains over the
Pacific Ocean.
High pressure then returns to the region for the start of the
next work week, resulting in dry conditions and gradually
moderating temperatures.



mfpark

From NWS Mt Holly:

Saturday through Tuesday...
Main story for this period will be low pressure system which may
impact at least parts of the area with snow Saturday night into
Sunday.
For Saturday, clouds quickly increase well ahead of a developing low
pressure system over the southeastern states. This low will develop
in response to southern stream energy moving east from Texas.
Conditions should be dry through the morning but by late day there
could be a little light snow developing from west to east as temps
will be cold enough for it.
Saturday night into Sunday, aformentioned low looks to move
northeast passing off the coast south of the forecast area.
Forecast models have started to come in to better agreement but
since this is still several days away confidence regarding this
system is still only in the low to moderate range. Latest
indications are that southern stream shortwave will tend to
fracture apart as it gets pulled into confluent upper level flow
over the northeast. The result would be a somewhat weaker low
passing farther south than what the GFS and GEM were showing 24
hours ago. There will also be a surface high over Ontario/Quebec
feeding cold, dry air into the system and this could also
result in a sharp northern cut off in precip. The upshot is that
there is still a potential for some accumulating snow to occur
with the highest chances for precip being areas near and
especially south of the I-95 corridor. There could also be a
little rain mixed in near the coast. However at this point it
doesn`t look to be a blockbuster storm. Also, the system should
be progressive with high pressure to return by Monday with fair
weather which should continue through Tuesday. &&



max_weisenfeld

There is a general consensus in the models that if a storm develops -- and it is still an if -- the bulk of the precipitation will be south of us and also out to sea.  Which is what Mark said above.

There is still quite a bit of variability in the forecast as to timing and intensity.

A few days ago one of the models, the GFS, was showing a significant storm signal, but it has faded from run to run and the tend is away from a serious storm in that most major models no longer show the two sources of energy phasing into a single system.  


sprout

Looks big, but like it's heading to the south of us. Any chance it could swing northward, and that we might see some snow or ice? 




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