US/Australia relations, now with added Chinese spices!

I’ve just been asked about our federal election, which was held on 18 May (yep, the whole nation votes on the one day and often the result can be safely predicted a few hours after the booths close at 6pm). This year was meant to be different for several reasons.

This is critical to current US/Australia relations. You might be aware that we’ve just welcomed a new US ambassador, after not having one for a couple of years. The break was seen as a hurtful snub here, downplayed in public but very troubling in a region with growing nuclear powers nearby. Remember, we house strategic US military & naval bases and also NASA centres, and have done for decades; we’re partners not former enemies or colonies. 

Further, a long-term Prime Minister who forged a particularly close working relationship in modern trade with the US has just died (Thursday). As far as I can see, absolutely no acknowledgement by your president. International media has covered this national  loss extensively. While the Hawke family, and the ALP, can shrug the silence off, in terms of nation-to-nation diplomacy it’s incredibly poor form.

So: in the last week of the federal election campaigns, news broke that the US managed to convince the previous federal government (the conservative LNP, under Malcolm Turnbull and most recently Scott Morrison) to accept some Rwandan murderers as humanitarian migrants, in an exchange for resettling refugees from Nauru and Manus Island. (This, after blistering character attacks on refugees by the LNP as a reason for reducing non-European/WASP immigration). Those Rwandans are known to have murdered at least one Australian. 

News also broke of a water-rights agricultural deal, of $80 mil - which went to a Cayman Is company! - involving a federal govt minister & his Oxford Uni rowing mates. (I think some family are also involved ) what’s worse about this is the water deal itself is part of how the rivers downstream were dry this past summer, leading to the horrific algal blooms and death of millions of fish, ruining several industries at critical times in their operational year. 


There was so little public trust in the support systems operated by Centrelink that Royal Commissions were called for, into the so-called ‘robo-debt’ program and the parenting support program (which can actually penalise you for working or taking another child to a dentist instead of taking your toddler to storytime at the library!). 

Something like 80% of Australians don’t want the Adani mines to go ahead, want stronger action on climate change, want more renewable resources embraced, want faster and most positive action on Reconciliation & Recognition - LNP are directly in opposition to all of this. Turn back to the 1950s, and you’ll have their paternalistic attitudes. 

So the LNP campaigning was all for older, white people living on the coastal fringe who have money or own houses. 

It was expected they’d lose this election: record numbers of people pre-voted (postal votes, or early in-person votes), about 45% of voters. We had a larger pool of voters this year, too, and more first-time voters. So a huge swing was predicted, either for ALP (more left but not totally socialist these days) or The Greens.

It was thought we’d need at least a week for all the postal votes to come in, from overseas (military, travellers etc) and nationally and be counted. REMEMBER: the election was for every seat in the House of Representatives and half the Senate. 

And then you have to remember that Western Australia is 4 hours behind the east coast (Sydney), so if Sydney closes at 6pm, Perth still has 4 hours of voting left. 


The booth I worked at yesterday, on Gold Coast, is one of the major booths in Queensland. We were expecting 3500 people to come in between 8am-6pm. They came with babies, they came with dogs. (We’re in a high school auditorium and they bring their dogs!!!!) We had a record number of voters through our doors, but I can’t remember the exact number. 

(We started working, setting up booths and our desks with books of elector rolls, paper ballots, etc at 7am. We finished tallying ballots 11:15pm)


At 10:15pm, it was announced (but we didn’t know) that LNP had won a big majority and will be returned to government. Scott Morrison will be returned as Prime Minister. LNP will consider it has a mandate to continue the awful, horrible things it has done over its past two terms of government.

@LOST, you might find this article on what happens next re counting & protocols is of interest

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/federal-election-coalition-win-what-happens-next/11128280


How this affects immediate US relations is a little murky.

- Our ambassador to the US, Joe Hockey, is leaving. He’s been an occasional golf buddy of Mr Trump’s, apparently, but I’m not too sure what else he’s accomplished. 

-I’m not sure who will replace him. At one stage there was a rumour it could be Peter Dutton, however Dutton retained his seat yesterday (a shock result! He’s hugely unpopular around Australia. I’m sure there was voter fraud but I’m not sure how you’d prove it; there might have been a lot of informal votes though).

- one of the directions ScoMo was talking up in his campaign was stronger trade relations with Asia and especially China, which is a massive market for us. We’re also rebuilding our relationships with Indonesia, Koreas, and trying hard to refocus on Asia as a trading neighbour

- Julie Bishop, our former (fashion-conscious) Foreign Affairs Minister has retired from politics. LNP doesn’t like having too many women in Cabinet. Hm.....


Edited to add: Ambassador Joe is apparently always tweeting about Bluestone Lane, and how wonderful the Melbourne-style coffee house is (good for when he's homesick). And it's in NYC too, now! 


Interesting but without a background in Australian Politics difficult to follow.

It seems the Polls were wrong, just like here in 2016.

Cautionary tale for 2020 


So sorry to hear all this, joanne.  I'd say it's shocking, but it's hard to be shocked after 2016.  I hope it will not affect your good work too much.


LOST said:
Interesting but without a background in Australian Politics difficult to follow.
It seems the Polls were wrong, just like here in 2016.
Cautionary tale for 2020 

 Not really. Out 2016 polls were pretty accurate, well within their margin of error.

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/315145-one-last-look-2016-polls-actually-got-a-lot-right

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx

As, for Australia, I don't know how much the polls were off and where, that is local vs national. I do know the right wing appreciates fraud and any other deplorable action that can be of benefit.


There’s a lot of shocked articles on how the predictions are mostly based on robocalls to Landline’s, and so many voters especially younger voters just don’t bother with landline phones anymore. So new models to predict voter trends need to be devised. 

I have read at least one article that said, ‘hang on. We predicted a number. It’s right within 3% up or down. That’s noted. What resulted as just over that [i think 4%] s, not so wrong after all’. 

And yes, as you’ve noted, we’re following overseas trends of voting for older, sadder and bitter white men. We have a lot of young voters very cross about the process and wondering about what happened to their voice for the environment, for jobs, for welfare & community support structures generally.  They’ve been angry that our international aid has been allowed to fall, arts fail, research opportunities shrink, etc. 


I have to rush - more later. 


joanne said:

And yes, as you’ve noted, we’re following overseas trends of voting for older, sadder and bitter white men. We have a lot of young voters very cross about the process and wondering about what happened to their voice for the environment, for jobs, for welfare & community support structures generally.  They’ve been angry that our international aid has been allowed to fall, arts fail, research opportunities shrink, etc. 


I have to rush - more later. 

Yes, the young are upset and talk a lot. Stupidly, for them, many do not vote. More so than any other age group.


Hi again. 

Here, it's compulsory to show up for voting. People grumble about it, people draw or write quite crude or disgusting things all over their ballot papers (yes, we still use paper and pencils; the most reliable secure technology anywhere and everywhere in our Commonwealth), but they show up to avoid being fined. That includes young people, and very elderly, frail people. 

Once you have your ballot papers, you could decide to not mark them. In this case, you just fold the papers and shove them in the ballot boxes.  Or you could vote Informal in some way: not complete the numbering, or draw/mark outside the preference squares, comment on the weather, vote for Captain Cook or James Kirk or Capt Janeway...  You could donkey-vote: just number straight down from 1 at the top.... You could mix up numbering systems (numbers and letters, ticks and crosses etc). It must be very very clear what your first preference is, and the order of preference for all other choices.

Our young voters seem to be raking this process quite seriously, even going so far as to raise petitions and seeking out Have Your Say opportunities. They're also initiating opportunities for community consultations and new programs. What's not being matched is funding. 



Further news of funding cuts to critical community resources resumed today. The populace is NOT happy yet the Scott Morrison govt is trumpeting 'mandate!'



I can’t read the New York Times articles, they’re behind a paywall and there’s some geo-blocking at work too. However, it’s Murdoch press. Murdoch has been heavily anti-the ALP and anti-Greens for decades; also extremely well-known for backing something called the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) which pretty much dictates LNP policy. 

In terms of ‘journalism’ purporting to analyse this election and results, as well as trying to predict or discuss future policies, take such publications with tons of cynicism

(See also the mid-campaign attack articles on ALP leader Bill Shorten for ‘misrepresenting his mother’, a well-known lawyer who gained her qualifications as a mature student after her children finished school. The story was presented as revealing a shameful secret; in fact, it’s widely known in Bill’s home town and in the ALP)


Just occurred to me: if this article is about the hundreds of jobs Adani is going to provide, this has already been shown as false MANY times simply by going through Adani’s own paperwork. 

Further, there is NO EXPORT MARKET any more for this coal, neither China nor India want it under their revised energy plans. 


the Times makes it difficult to grab portions of news articles..


“She said doing so was a strategic mistake for politicians comparable to Hillary Clinton’s description of some Donald Trump supporters as “deplorables” during the 2016 United States presidential election.

“You can’t trigger the pride response,” Ms. Harris-Rimmer said.

Scholars of Australian populism agree, arguing that the weakening of the major parties and the country’s tilt to the right have been driven mainly by class envy and alienation, including the belief that the elite do not understand the needs and values of the working class.

Despite his Sydney upbringing and former career in advertising, Mr. Morrison, 51, won in part by presenting himself as an Australian everyman — a rugby-.....



aha. I see what they're trying to do. 

And the answer is a resounding No. 

No-one believes for a second the 'I'm just like you' act that Scott Morrison puts on, especially because of his advertising background. No-one believes believes in a 'team of LNP ministers working together to carry out a carefully developed progressive vision for Australia's future'. 

However, quite a few find Shorten offputting for some reason (possibly too academic), and over the past 6 years the LNP and Murdoch have been spreading nasty rumours about his previous work associations. Against LNP wishes, the ALP and minor parties have been successful in bringing about major inquiries into banking and finance; aged care (ongoing); sex abuse of minors; some handling of important government programs; etc and the results have been quite horrific, and embarrassing for the LNP govt. So the Murdoch media and IPA/LNP have worked hard to undermine public confidence in ALP leadership, economic vision and industrial protections.


So a key component of the LNP campaign was their national Budget management, which they claimed evidenced yet another 'return' to brilliant surplus due to their management of our resources. 

Except, if there any truth to that, it wouldn't be seen until after next financial year, and only if certain assumptions held (very unlikely as they were changing even as the Budget was being presented). 

The LNP then lied about the Treasury advice for the ALP response to the Budget, and Murdoch media blasted the LNP view wherever one turned. (Qld has no alternative mass media than Murdoch-owned or the national ABC, ad whatever is on your unreliable Internet).

This morning, we wake up to:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/scott-morrison-government-income-tax-cut-delay-election-budget/11132046

A key promise in the Budget, and election campaign, now deferred - as economists had predicted in the week after the Budget was announced. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/21/we-need-more-than-confidence-to-improve-the-sad-state-of-affairs-the-economy-is-in



As country after country falls to the far right/fascists this ceases to be a national problem and quickly becomes a global problem.


Klinker said:
As country after country falls to the far right/fascists this ceases to be a national problem and quickly becomes a global problem.

 Very true. And worrying, when your daily newspaper resorts to triumphantly publishing this image of the State’s Premier:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/sunshine-coast-daily-front-page-prompts-complaint/11132724

(The State government in Queensland is ALP [Labor, just to the left of centre], which Murdoch-media can’t abide. Admittedly, Palaszczuk has made some odd decisions, but there isn’t the same taint of corruption as with the previous State LNP government.  The media can’t stand a female head of government, let alone a competent one. It annoys themselves that the State opposition leader is also female!)


I’d gone to bed early last night and missed this important news, 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/abc-computer-election-results-confirm-majority-government/11136134

What’s important about Chisholm is that the campaign there was run against our rules - posters in the same colours as the neutral Australian Electoral Commission were printed in Chinese directing people to vote for the Liberal Party candidate; ALP direct mail was tampered with; even though complaints were lodged, the damage was done. Many voters of Chinese background have felt intimidated and pressured to vote a particular way. 

At the same time, there’s been some telco confusion re the Huawei involvement in the development of our national 5G network (I think they won the original tender then it was un-announced given 5-Eyes concerns). So China isn’t completely happy with us, and watches our friendship with you.  We’ve given another country permission to build a naval base in Darwin - remember, you have Pine Gap  and hold all kinds of military exercises nearby - I think it might be China. (From memory that naval base is there for 99 years) 

So I think we’re back to confused foreign policy, economics by reflex and wishful thinking (blaming everything on the left-wing government of ten years ago),  and the total failure to comprehend the urgent concerns of the newest taxpayers/voters. 

If this is the government of the Daggy Dad, mtierney, we’re doomed to live in faded postcard from the 1950s.

Edited to add: Electoral Commission is apparentlyacting on aome of those cases of bad ads etc:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/australian-electoral-commission-finds-87-cases-of-election-ads-breaching-law 


Our new Ambassador to the USA has been announced - Sinodinos - and many of us are shaking our heads in despair. Not only ‘jobs for friends’, this man has been investigated for shady government deals and did not come out well. It’s surprising he can hold any kind of community or government position at all.

Our media has been full of your President’s temper tantrum over someone most of us refuse to take seriously - ‘Fishnet Stockings’ Downer - and the impact that tantrum is having on our trade and alliances. Especially as the newly re-elected government seeks to confirm its links with the changing markets and bureaucracies in Asia and Europe. (You should read some of those articles, there’s a strong sense of the US administration as a domestic violence perpetrator about them) 


And then there’s this: the sheer bafflement and contradictory nature of our various international business and military treaties altogether! Military exercises in Darwin in July, involving large numbers of your military people, within spitting distance of Chinese company Landbridge, linked to their govt.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-28/china-united-states-fight-global-dominance-australia-safety-risk/11116086 



joanne said:
Our new Ambassador to the USA has been announced - Sinodinos - and many of us are shaking our heads in despair. Not only ‘jobs for friends’, this man has been investigated for shady government deals and did not come out well. It’s surprising he can hold any kind of community or government position at all.

Likely a good choice. Trump believes that any and everything that motivates is only due to self-interest. It is how he lives.

He and his cohorts are comfortable with the self-interested, the selfish. They understand each other and relate. Unlike with some altruistic starry eyed idealist who they would consider to be abnormally alien.


The trouble with this view is, from memory, the new man is beholden to murky mining interests that benefit a relatively obscure part of New South Wales (in terms of mineral rights). The Inquiry was messy and embarrassing for two governments.

If you're going to opt for plotters, deception and self-interest, you should choose a candidate who's got success and discretion in his recent history cheese


Has your news covered this incident? One of our military helicopters fired on by lasers apparently by a disguised Chinese fishing boat

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-29/australian-military-aircraft-targeted-with-lasers-in-scs/11158452 



In order to add a comment – you must Join this community – Click here to do so.