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We have a weekend booked in Waterford, CT from Saturday through Monday. Debating whether to go or not. This one is so unpredictable, even to the last minute.
Friday Evening Henri Update
Latest models continue ticking westward. The NWS has posted Hurricane Warnings for Suffolk County on Long Island, and watches for the city and Nassau.
MAPSO is not currently under a watch or warning. The watch does extend to eastern Essex County, including parts of Newark, and towns east of the parkway. If the forecast holds, we would only see 0.5 - 1.5 inches of rain. Wind would not be an issue. At this time, I think these are solid forecasts.
However...This storm has been ticking west for repeated model runs now and some sub-elements of various models are mildly alarming. We need to keep an eye on this storm for the next 24 hours or so to get a better feel. If you remember last year, and years before, we often cannot be sure on a hurricane track until the day before. Because these storms tend to run parallel to the coast, a small shift can make a big difference in point of landfall.
That said, it is still very unlikely that Henri will make landfall on New Jersey.
Maplewood is right on the edge of the tropical storm watch. Though unlikely, there is still a possibility this thing continues to trend west. Probably best to start preparing for some power outages just in case.
Henri Update for Sat Morning, 8/21
The models are coming into agreement with Henri making landfall on Eastern Long Island early Sunday morning as a tropical storm, although cat 1 hurricane is not outside the range of possibilities. MAPSO is on the far edge of the affected area, but the storm is likely to have a very sharp gradient, that is, the amount of heavy rain will rise steeply over a short distance. The result is a rather wide range of forecast precipitation that will not get any narrower until we actually get rained on.
Currently, rainfall predictions are in the 0.5" to 4.0" range. Some showers from Henri could reach us by nightfall but more likely we will not see any real rain until well after midnight, continuing through the morning Sunday.
Warnings and Watches:
We are currently only under a Flash Flood Watch.
The NWS has also issued a hurricane local statement which I will put below.
You may have received a tropical storm warning ⚠️ on your phone. Although the alerts come out at the county level, the warning *does not* include MAPSO. It extends over Eastern Essex County, only coming as far west as the Parkway.
Regarding the trends, overnight most of the major models shifted back to the east, away from MAPSO. There is a growing consensus in the models on an Suffolk County landfall and then a track across the Island to Connecticut. Henri is currently located off the coast of South Carolina.
Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-211715- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0001.210822T0000Z-210823T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex- Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwest Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester and Southwest Suffolk. * From this evening through Monday morning. * A widespread rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is forecast in in association with Henri with localized higher amounts possible Saturday evening through Monday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Tropical Storm Henri Local Statement Advisory Number 22 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-211700- Tropical Storm Henri Local Statement Advisory Number 22 National Weather Service New York NY AL082021 528 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT SUNDAY NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for Southwest Suffolk - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Fairfield, Northern Westchester, Richmond (Staten Island), and Southern Queens - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for Southern Nassau - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Northeast Suffolk, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Bronx, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Southern Fairfield, and Southern Westchester * STORM INFORMATION: - About 530 miles south of New York City NY or about 550 miles south of Montauk Point NY - 33.1N 73.2W - Storm Intensity 70 mph - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Henri is currently 555 miles south of Montauk Point and will likely track north northeast across Long Island as a category 1 hurricane Sunday, and then track into southern New England and upstate New York later Sunday into Monday. The main threats from Henri are potentially life-threatening storm surge, heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding, tropical storm or hurricane force winds along the south shore and Long Island and across southern Connecticut. There will also be associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip currents. Severe beach erosion is possible for coastal areas of Long Island Sound and portions of Suffolk County, including the Twin Forks region. A widespread rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is forecast in the path of Henri with localized higher amounts possible Saturday through Sunday night. The highest amounts are forecast to be across eastern Long Island and much of southern Connecticut. This will present a likelihood for areas of flash flooding. Dangerous marine conditions are likely on the ocean waters south of Long Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and eastern bays of Long Island. Hurricane force winds will be most likely in those areas. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected along the ocean beaches of Long Island beginning Friday. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include: - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Large areas with power and communications outages. Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across the New York City metro, portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and portions of northeastern New Jersey. * SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across all coastal areas of Long Island Sound, and much of the Great South Bay and southeast coast of Long Island. Potential impacts in this area include: - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Very dangerous surf and rip currents. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Jamaica Bay, and New York Harbor. Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, little to no impact is anticipated. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, little to no impact is anticipated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. WATCH/WARNING PHASE - For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Saturday is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Make sure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges may be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember that during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making. Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge prone area, you could find yourself cut off by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by local authorities. If in a place that is vulnerable to high winds, such as near large trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see http://getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see http://redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in New York NY around 1200 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
Henri Update, Sat Eve 8/21
While some aspects of the storm have come into clear focus, there are a couple of points still tbd, most likely by direct observation tomorrow.
What we are pretty sure of:
Henri is likely to make landfall in eastern Suffolk County, Long Island, tomorrow around the middle of the day, as a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane.
The main effects in MAPSO will be rain, possibly all day Sunday and even possibly overnight and into Monday morning. Wind is almost certainly a minor issue for MAPSO with this storm, which is good since I have heard that PSEG has sent some crews to Long Island in anticipation of more problems there. I think we can expect maximum sustained winds of 15 - 20mph with afternoon gusts up to 30mph.
What is still up in the air a bit:
How much rain?
In the most likely scenario, 1 - 2 inches or less. However, a couple of the models are showing an interaction with an inverted trough that could mean more rain for us. In English, that means there is another low pressure system that could pump more tropical moisture into our area that Henri could then drop on us. In the worst case scenario, up to 4 or more inches. I think this is unlikely, but it is not impossible so I want to note it.
So the rain forecast is 1 - 5 inches possible but most likely is 1 - 2 inches.
Timing is also still a bit up in the air, not so much for landfall but for when, and for how long, it will rain here. Rain could arrive as early as midnight, but more likely in the morning, around 6:00 or 7:00. Any rain overnight is likely to be fairly light and sporadic. Here is where the models diverge, with some (the GFS for example) showing a compact storm that leaves us fairly dry, and others (the Euro is one) showing steady rain falling all day with some heavier bands in the afternoon.
When does the rain end? Not really sure...
Another feature the models disagree on is where the storm goes after landfall. The GFS has the storm exiting the area briskly and heading off to New England. The Euro has it stalling for much of Sunday night in the Hudson Valley. The latter would mean a longer rainfall for us, with some heavier rain also possible into Monday morning. We are unlikely to know which of these two scenarios will happen until later on Sunday.
The GFS yields less than an inch, the Euro 2 - 3 inches. I'm not going to bore you by getting into the other models out there since I think the spread on these two covers the most likely range.
Is this what we’re getting now part of Henri’s system?
Henri Morning Update, Sunday 8/22
So remember last night I mentioned that Henri might interact with a trough an we would get more rain? Well, that happened.
I haven't ventured out to the rain guage yet, but local reports are of 1.5 to 2 inches having fallen in the storms last night, with reports of 4 - 6 inches elsewhere in New Jersey and 6+ in Brooklyn for all you missing the city.
Rain from Henri itself (yes, that was a Previous Rain Event, Henri is not quite here yet) will begin arriving within the next hour or two. Rain will be heavy at times. Extent, location, intensity, and duration of rain will vary, and will be a matter of observation at this point not forecasting. Expect rain continue through at least midnight. We will have a better handle on Monday by this evening as we see whether the storm makes that left turn into the Hudson Valley or heads out through New England right away.
ETA at least 2.5" had fallen by this morning (2.81 in my guage in Eastern Maplewood) with 1 - 4" more expected.
Winds in the MAPSO area maintain the forecast of steady 15 - 20mph throughout the day with 30mph gusts, more likely in the afternoon.
Henri likely to cross Long Island Sound late this morning or midday just east of Montauk as a strong Tropical Storm and make landfall in Connecticut or Rhode Island.
If the rain keeps up like this I imagine there will be some localized flooding
If the rain keeps up like this I imagine there will be some localized flooding
Cranbury and some shore points flooded last night. Road ponding and low-level field flooding (think Memorial Park and the golf course) are ongoing. We would need to get hit with one of the really heavy bands for there to be severe flooding but I am sure there are a lot of very wet basements right now
Sunday Evening update, 8/22/21
Rain tonight and tomorrow, probably most of the day. Most likely will see another 1 - 2 inches total by tomorrow night. Although heavy banding and thunderstorms are not likely here, they are not impossible and so we remain under a Flash Flood Watch, just in case.
Here in Eastern Maplewood we have a total of 4.85" of rain so far, with over half of that falling during the PRE last night.
Wind was and will continue to not be a factor in this storm.
Henri has moved north and taken a small jog to the west that keeps us on the outer edge of the rain shield as the storm continues to weaken and slow. How long the storm will hang around (the center is located near the NY/Mass/Conn border) before scooting east through Mass and out to sea is an open question, and will determine how much of tomorrow is rained out.
The video below shows Henri making landfall today ad a relatively well-organized tropical storm, and then breaking apart and devolving into a tropical depression tonight. At the end you can see the center moving into the Hudson Valley region.
I just checked our rain gauge at 10:15 pm. We picked up another half inch to make an even 5". Well the rain barrel is full and all the extra buckets I put out are full (with mosquito dunks deployed of course).
So, is Cranford calling out for the reservation dam again? I gotta say, I feel sorry for them. Has anything been altered in the past 10 years to mitigate the problems downstream from us?
Monday Morning Henri Update 8/23
Henri spend the night centered and stalled over the Catskills. Additional rain fell bringing our 24 hour total to 3.11 inches and our total storm total to 5.92 inches in Eastern Maplewood.
Henri is showing signs of starting to move east now, with most models showing a slow exit through Southern New England during the day today. Most likely we will see only 0.5 - 1.5 inches more today, mostly this morning, then tapering off as the system leave the area. There is a slight possibility that a band of heavier precipitation could swing through the area if the storm moves south as it exits.
The Rahway River (yes, the stream is actually a river) is near flood stage in Springfield. Significant additional rain this morning, should it occur, could lead to flooding of low-lying areas. In MAPSO this would mean the new Waterlands fields in South Orange and the golf course & Memorial Park in Maplewood. These areas were designed to absorb and contain high water away from the built up areas.
On the other hand I am seeing a bit of blue sky as I write this...
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Tropical Storm Henri has taken a bit of a turn and is now forecast to make landfall (possibly as a cat 1 hurricane) on the east end of Long Island or southern New England Sunday morning.
Impacts here could be some rain and a storm surge at the shore.