Trend?

There isn't much data being provided these days but the NJ Covid Hub provides reported cases per week with an accompanying bar chart showing the numbers over time.  The weekly numbers were going up consistently from early July forward - usually an increase of a few hundred every week - until the week ending 9/30, when reported cases dropped by around 600 from the week before.  We'll see if its the beginning of a trend in a few days when this week's totals are in.  

Cases are no longer being tracked unless they result in hospitalization.  With home testing being the primary means of detecting COVID, many cases are not being reported to the Health Department.  The Maplewood Health Department is strongly recommending getting the new COVID shot which is available by appointment at local pharmacies.  They are also recommending a return to masking, especially for those with compromised immune systems.  

Not sure what you mean.  This is the site I'm referring to, which is a NJ government site.  They have a tab for weekly case counts and a separate tab for hospitalizations.   Numbers can't be trusted in absolute terms because we've long known that many people no longer report their illness but I think its worthwhile in showing trends.  Not sure why else the govt would report the numbers they get.
https://covid19.nj.gov/

The numbers being reported are much lower than the reality for the reasons I gave above.  This results in a sense of false security which contributes to community spread.  As long as Essex County continues to report low transmission rates, we will continue to have the large gathering so many of us enjoyed this summer.  That will result in a higher transmission rate than reported.  Some counties in the western part of the state are now reporting moderate transmission rate. We will likely be there too before very long.

I understand the numbers are a fraction of the actual cases and I'm certainly not presenting them to create a false sense of security.  Even as a fraction of the real cases, the bar graph kept going up and up in lock step with our anecdotal impression of the recent trend.  If the weekly numbers keep going down, I'm going to view that as a sign that the recent trend has peaked and that things are getting better even if the actual numbers are ten times what any given week shows on the chart.  

St Barnabas is now requiring masks. Can't find the link where I read that but yes based on Covid numbers that is the new requirement.

Anecdotally, we've personally seen many recent cases around us (including our 12 yo), but also anecdotally, whatever strain(s) seem to be going around appear to manifest itself in with much milder symptoms.  Our 12 yo felt bad (fever, listless) for a day.  The next day and beyond he reported being fine but still tested positive for the next 5 days.  None of us in the household, his classroom or his sports teams contracted it either - however, we do have a good idea who transmitted it to him over Labor Day weekend...   

I'm always wondering whether whatever vaccine iteration is in use is blocking whatever variant is having its day or is it just the "prevents serious illness" thing.  Would take the latter, but would love the former.  You think someone would be monitoring a test group to see how the vax is working.

When I got my shot yesterday, the material I was  given contained the disclaimer that the shot would not keep some recipients from contracting COVID.  

joan_crystal said:

When I got my shot yesterday, the material I was  given contained the disclaimer that the shot would not keep some recipients from contracting COVID.  

I think thats always been true, even with the first vax against the first strain. But it was highly effective at blocking the disease back then I think.   The question how effective the current vax is at blocking the current strain.  I'm sure its not 100% but it would be nice to know they are assessing how good it is at blocking.  

bub said:

I think thats always been true, even with the first vax against the first strain. But it was highly effective at blocking the disease back then I think.   The question how effective the current vax is at blocking the current strain.  I'm sure its not 100% but it would be nice to know they are assessing how good it is at blocking.  

They just started administering the latest vaccine.  It is too soon to see how effective it is against the current strain.  More likely, the issue will be how the current strain mutates over time and whether the now-current vaccine will be effective in combatting the new mutations that evolve.  This is similar to the issue with the flu vaccine which is adjusted every year in anticipation of which strains will be circulating in the year it is administered. 

joan_crystal said:

bub said:

I think thats always been true, even with the first vax against the first strain. But it was highly effective at blocking the disease back then I think.   The question how effective the current vax is at blocking the current strain.  I'm sure its not 100% but it would be nice to know they are assessing how good it is at blocking.  

They just started administering the latest vaccine.  It is too soon to see how effective it is against the current strain.  More likely, the issue will be how the current strain mutates over time and whether the now-current vaccine will be effective in combatting the new mutations that evolve.  This is similar to the issue with the flu vaccine which is adjusted every year in anticipation of which strains will be circulating in the year it is administered. 

My doctor did not recommend getting the latest Covid vaccine because he felt that the current, prevalent strain, which the vaccine works against, is waning and the vaccine may not protect against the new variant xx.000 something, something... I still got the booster. 

KarenMarlowe said:

joan_crystal said:

bub said:

I think thats always been true, even with the first vax against the first strain. But it was highly effective at blocking the disease back then I think.   The question how effective the current vax is at blocking the current strain.  I'm sure its not 100% but it would be nice to know they are assessing how good it is at blocking.  

They just started administering the latest vaccine.  It is too soon to see how effective it is against the current strain.  More likely, the issue will be how the current strain mutates over time and whether the now-current vaccine will be effective in combatting the new mutations that evolve.  This is similar to the issue with the flu vaccine which is adjusted every year in anticipation of which strains will be circulating in the year it is administered. 

My doctor did not recommend getting the latest Covid vaccine because he felt that the current, prevalent strain, which the vaccine works against, is waning and the vaccine may not protect against the new variant xx.000 something, something... I still got the booster. 

I guess we're always gonna be in this loop unless future variants truly moderate down to just a cold-like disease and nobody will care anymore.  Seems like many people feel that way already.  

bub said:

KarenMarlowe said:

joan_crystal said:

bub said:

I think thats always been true, even with the first vax against the first strain. But it was highly effective at blocking the disease back then I think.   The question how effective the current vax is at blocking the current strain.  I'm sure its not 100% but it would be nice to know they are assessing how good it is at blocking.  

They just started administering the latest vaccine.  It is too soon to see how effective it is against the current strain.  More likely, the issue will be how the current strain mutates over time and whether the now-current vaccine will be effective in combatting the new mutations that evolve.  This is similar to the issue with the flu vaccine which is adjusted every year in anticipation of which strains will be circulating in the year it is administered. 

My doctor did not recommend getting the latest Covid vaccine because he felt that the current, prevalent strain, which the vaccine works against, is waning and the vaccine may not protect against the new variant xx.000 something, something... I still got the booster. 

I guess we're always gonna be in this loop unless future variants truly moderate down to just a cold-like disease and nobody will care anymore.  Seems like many people feel that way already.  

Covid should eventually be like the flu.  We'll all get our flu shot and our Covid shot and they will help against some strains but not all strains.

I've never had the flu or Covid and hope to keep it that way.  I'd get vaxed every week if they recommended it.  I get that people are weary of Covid but I don't get vax weariness. A painless nothing that takes seconds.  In fairness, though, I never get side effects and I know they can be unpleasant albeit fairly brief.