China Maneuvering Against Taiwan

In the "Putin Wants Ukraine" thread (or whatever its called) the discussion turned to Taiwan.  There's a "Nancy Visits Taiwan" thread, but the real issues are far beyond that one event.  So, this is a thread for discussing China's increased pressure on Taiwan.

I'll start out with something I posted on the "Nancy" thread.

China recently issued a long and detailed argument for its case that Taiwan should consent to be ruled from Beijing.

This is obviously something long-planned, and wasn't prompted by Pelosi's visit. They were just looking for a pretext to release it. Here's an article about it from Beijing's English-language media -

China releases white paper on Taiwan question, reunification in new era (www.gov.cn)

"The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China published a white paper titled "The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era" on Aug 10.

"The white paper was released to reiterate the fact that Taiwan is part of China, to demonstrate the resolve of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese people and their commitment to national reunification, and to emphasize the position and policies of the CPC and the Chinese government in the new era."

In that document, here is how the government of Taiwan is described: "They have steadily built up their military forces with the intention of pursuing 'independence' and preventing reunification by force."

The people of Taiwan don't want to be invaded by China, but China definitely wants to be able to do just that.


This is another article I had posted in the "Nancy" thread - it's another informative piece about the situation between China and Taiwan. It's unlocked so anyone can read it. I suggest that anyone who wants to comment on it, read the entire thing.

After China’s Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan

The exercises were designed to deter Taiwan from moving further away from Beijing, but they also indicated how few policy carrots China has.

Two excerpts, below, about what the people of Taiwan actually want.

"But since Taiwan emerged as a democracy in the 1990s, growing numbers of its people see themselves as vastly different in values and culture from the People’s Republic of China. That political skepticism toward authoritarian China has persisted, and even deepened, as Taiwan’s economic ties to the mainland expanded.

"But in increasingly democratic Taiwan, few see themselves as proud, future Chinese citizens. Support for Beijing’s proposals sank even lower after 2020, when China imposed a crackdown on Hong Kong, eroding the freedoms that the former British colony was promised under its own version of the framework."


So, do you think we should go to war with China?  Do you think we can win?


nan said:

So, do you think we should go to war with China?  Do you think we can win?

You’re asking the wrong questions.

[Edited to add] You should take the suggestion, to read the article before commenting like that. 


nan said:

So, do you think we should go to war with China?  Do you think we can win?

Similarly with the Ukraine question, there's actually two questions hidden in here:

- Should Taiwan resist China's attempts at foreceful reunification

- If yes, what role (if any) should the US play.

I find the first question pretty easy -- yes.

The second one is harder, but I do think that so long as the US has the sort of power it does, I want to see it used to promote a stable international order and, when possible, encouraging the development of open and democratic societies. That's why I opposed the 2003 Iraq invasion for instance and look poorly on much US involvement in Latin America throughout the Cold War (invading and overthrowing governments undermines a stable international order, and generally turns out to inhibit the development of open societies in the long run), and why I oppose Russia's repeated aggression against Ukraine (forcibly annexing territory, then invading and working to annex more undermines a stable international order, and a state of constant war undermines the progress of hybrid states such as Ukraine in their transition to full democracy).

With Taiwan, the goal is for there to NOT be a war. And I think the logic of strategic ambiguity -- make China unsure if there would be war, make it clear that if there were a war it would be very costly, don't support outright de-jure declaration of Taiwan's de-facto independence) -- does make sense if it can dissuade China from going to war against Taiwan.

But what if China decides to invade regardless? I don't know. Do nothing, and what happens to South Korea and Japan? Do they decide the U.S. is not trustworthy and choose to develop nuclear weapons, thus raising tensions and stakes? Does China decide the U.S. won't defend South Korea or Japan, and begin aggressing against them, increasing the chance of even more war?

This is what is difficult about these questions. The logic of "prepare for war to avoid war" seems paradoxical and I don't fully trust it. But I don't know that it's wrong either. Europe has never been more peaceful and more united than when it outsourced its security to the US nuclear umbrella. That's troubling; is peace and stability only possible when some larger power asserts a monopoly on violence? And what happens when the larger power's supremacy is challenged?


'New normal' across the Taiwan Strait as China threat looms ever closer | CNN

With any luck, Xi will stop swinging his d*ck around once the Chinese Communist Party confirms his trajectory for "Leader for Life", at the party congress later this year.

"The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is preparing to convene its 20th Party Congress in late 2022, and the party apparatus is already in full swing making the necessary arrangements for the political conclave, held every five years. President and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping had hoped to tread an easy path toward an atypical third term in power, but unexpected events at home and abroad have complicated that trajectory. Xi would like the congress to mark the beginning of what could be a sustained period of strongman rule, making it one of the most consequential party gatherings in decades"

Raising the Curtain on China’s 20th Party Congress: Mechanics, Rules, “Norms,” and the Realities of Power | Asia Society


As expected, the "Blame Ukraine" strategy is being used again, this time for Taiwan.

China's threats to invade Taiwan are a long-standing fact. So, Taiwan prepares to defend itself.

And the Usual Suspects say that this is a provocation, and it's the U.S. and Taiwan who would be at fault if China invades. 


[deleted]


Michael is a wannabe Dick 


Jaytee said:

Michael is a wannabe Dick 

There's a lot of that going around. 


Tankiest idea of the day - 


Beijing encouraging its new favorite tankie. 


The view from the people that the tankies want to make subject to the authoritarians in Beijing - 


I am not an Elon Musk fan, but I am glad for anyone who dares to speak out against the nutty neocons who dominate our foreign policy and brainwash Collective MOL.  We are headed for destruction unless we start acting like responsible adults instead of suicide bombers.   We need people who can negotiate and use diplomacy.  

We are not going to be the world's most powerful country forever.  That might end very soon and going around instigating proxy wars and regime change all over the world does not make other countries like us.  Remember when they used to tell us other countries were jealous of our democracy and appreciated our interference?  Turns out they don't and they all hate us and hope we have a big downfall. 

https://twitter.com/SmakSmik/status/1569301052758827008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1569301052758827008%7Ctwgr%5E2a0273e1ebb373d129e2f09c720e83260792364a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FSmakSmik2Fstatus2F1569301052758827008widget%3DTweet


nan said:

 Turns out they don't and they all hate us and hope we have a big downfall. 

Lie

Non-Western nations.


This garbage has nothing to do with Taiwan, which is in a region of the world where there are lot of "non-Western nations" that are democracies, not autocracies like China and Russia. 

nan said:

I am not an Elon Musk fan, but I am glad for anyone who dares to speak out against the nutty neocons who dominate our foreign policy and brainwash Collective MOL.  We are headed for destruction unless we start acting like responsible adults instead of suicide bombers.   We need people who can negotiate and use diplomacy.  

We are not going to be the world's most powerful country forever.  That might end very soon and going around instigating proxy wars and regime change all over the world does not make other countries like us.  Remember when they used to tell us other countries were jealous of our democracy and appreciated our interference?  Turns out they don't and they all hate us and hope we have a big downfall. 

https://twitter.com/SmakSmik/status/1569301052758827008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1569301052758827008%7Ctwgr%5E2a0273e1ebb373d129e2f09c720e83260792364a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FSmakSmik2Fstatus2F1569301052758827008widget%3DTweet


nohero said:

This garbage has nothing to do with Taiwan, which is in a region of the world where there are lot of "non-Western nations" that are democracies, not autocracies like China and Russia. 

nan said:

I am not an Elon Musk fan, but I am glad for anyone who dares to speak out against the nutty neocons who dominate our foreign policy and brainwash Collective MOL.  We are headed for destruction unless we start acting like responsible adults instead of suicide bombers.   We need people who can negotiate and use diplomacy.  

We are not going to be the world's most powerful country forever.  That might end very soon and going around instigating proxy wars and regime change all over the world does not make other countries like us.  Remember when they used to tell us other countries were jealous of our democracy and appreciated our interference?  Turns out they don't and they all hate us and hope we have a big downfall. 

https://twitter.com/SmakSmik/status/1569301052758827008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1569301052758827008%7Ctwgr%5E2a0273e1ebb373d129e2f09c720e83260792364a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FSmakSmik2Fstatus2F1569301052758827008widget%3DTweet

This "garbage" is applicable to Ukraine, Taiwan and other areas.  It's the same playbook.  We are turning into a terrorist state.  We need to stop playing chicken with nuclear powers.  

It's sad that Elon Musk is one of the few people speaking out but I'll take it.  Maybe his statement will inspire others to speak out against this madness. 


nan said:

This "garbage" is applicable to Ukraine, Taiwan and other areas.  It's the same playbook.  We are turning into a terrorist state.  We need to stop playing chicken with nuclear powers.  

It's sad that Elon Musk is one of the few people speaking out but I'll take it.  Maybe his statement will inspire others to speak out against this madness. 

"Speak out against this madness"? It's "madness" for the people of Taiwan to want their freedom and democracy, and not autocratic rule from Beijing? That's perverse thinking.


nohero said:

nan said:

This "garbage" is applicable to Ukraine, Taiwan and other areas.  It's the same playbook.  We are turning into a terrorist state.  We need to stop playing chicken with nuclear powers.  

It's sad that Elon Musk is one of the few people speaking out but I'll take it.  Maybe his statement will inspire others to speak out against this madness. 

"Speak out against this madness"? It's "madness" for the people of Taiwan to want their freedom and democracy, and not autocratic rule from Beijing? That's perverse thinking.

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?


Same crap, different thread.   


nan said:

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?

I have family IN Taiwan, which I’ve told you before  


nohero said:

nan said:

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?

I have family IN Taiwan, which I’ve told you before  

So, all the more reason for you to say no and yet, you don't answer.  Very telling. 


nan said:

nohero said:

nan said:

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?

I have family IN Taiwan, which I’ve told you before  

So, all the more reason for you to say no and yet, you don't answer.  Very telling. 

You have a perverse point of view about this.


nohero said:

nan said:

nohero said:

nan said:

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?

I have family IN Taiwan, which I’ve told you before  

So, all the more reason for you to say no and yet, you don't answer.  Very telling. 

You have a perverse point of view about this.

amazing isn't it?


nohero said:

nan said:

nohero said:

nan said:

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?

I have family IN Taiwan, which I’ve told you before  

So, all the more reason for you to say no and yet, you don't answer.  Very telling. 

You have a perverse point of view about this.

I advocate for peace.  Neocons find that perverse. 


nan said:

I advocate for peace.  Neocons find that perverse. 

NO...You advocate for PUTIN ! Disgusting !


Dennis_Seelbach said:

nan said:

I advocate for peace.  Neocons find that perverse. 

NO...You advocate for PUTIN ! Disgusting !

So Denis, my love, are you ready to sacrifice yourself and your family for Ukraine?

yea or nay?


nan said:

nohero said:

nan said:

nohero said:

nan said:

So are you willing to sacrifice yourself and your family for Taiwan?   Yea or nay?

I have family IN Taiwan, which I’ve told you before  

So, all the more reason for you to say no and yet, you don't answer.  Very telling. 

You have a perverse point of view about this.

I advocate for peace.  Neocons find that perverse. 

You're not "advocating for peace". Your reply is offensive.


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