Inflation Scaremongering

I don't believe it!  You've uncovered a politician trying to score points!

Unbelievable!


drummerboy said:

I don't believe it!  You've uncovered a politician trying to score points!

Unbelievable!

Is Chuck Schumer still doing Sunday press conferences?  They were always the dumbest things on Sunday night local news.  There was one where he called for lower breakfast cereal prices.  As if that was something the feds should be involved in.


ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

I don't believe it!  You've uncovered a politician trying to score points!

Unbelievable!

Is Chuck Schumer still doing Sunday press conferences?  They were always the dumbest things on Sunday night local news.  There was one where he called for lower breakfast cereal prices.  As if that was something the feds should be involved in.

Yup, those pressers were always cringeworthy.


terp said:

Its always the president's fault if he's in the opposition party and has nothing to do with him if he's in your party.


Too bad politicians almost always reach for the cheap talking points rather than trying to explain what is really going on.  On the other hand, cheap talking points have proven effective more or less since the beginning of verbal communication, so why change a proven approach.


more speculation on whether the Fed's approach (their only approach) to fight inflation is correct.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3506214-the-feds-cure-for-inflation-is-worse-recession/



And here's an interesting data point, which I have not independently corroborated.


drummerboy said:

more speculation on whether the Fed's approach (their only approach) to fight inflation is correct.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3506214-the-feds-cure-for-inflation-is-worse-recession/

Great stuff from a Fox News commentator and former advisor to Newt Gingrich. 

Here’s a better state of play article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/31/inflation-economy-timeline/



Was it really scaremongering though?


jimmurphy said:


Was it really scaremongering though?

When I started this thread it certainly was.


Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

more speculation on whether the Fed's approach (their only approach) to fight inflation is correct.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3506214-the-feds-cure-for-inflation-is-worse-recession/

Great stuff from a Fox News commentator and former advisor to Newt Gingrich. 

Here’s a better state of play article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/31/inflation-economy-timeline/

Nice Monday morning quarterbacking there.

Kind of useless information today.

And that makes it better than what, exactly?


drummerboy said:

When I started this thread it certainly was.

That example, sure. But they didn’t conjure it out of thin air.


drummerboy said:

And here's an interesting data point, which I have not independently corroborated.

Interesting because prices were unusually high (inflation-adjusted) in 1980, too?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/how-much-gas-cost-every-year-since-1978.html


DaveSchmidt said:

Interesting because prices were unusually high (inflation-adjusted) in 1980, too?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/how-much-gas-cost-every-year-since-1978.html

Always on point, that Schmidt.


jimmurphy said:

Always on point, that Schmidt.

that article suggests that $4.50 a gallon gas hasn't been all that unusual through the years, adjusted for inflation. So I'm not sure what the point is. 


DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

And here's an interesting data point, which I have not independently corroborated.

Interesting because prices were unusually high (inflation-adjusted) in 1980, too?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/how-much-gas-cost-every-year-since-1978.html

shoulda known not to trust an AEI guy.  question


ml1 said:

that article suggests that $4.50 a gallon gas hasn't been all that unusual through the years, adjusted for inflation. So I'm not sure what the point is.

I’d say above $4 in only eight out of 44 years, and in only three clusters, with an average of $3.14 over the span, makes $4.50 unusual. Your mileage, as they say, may vary.

But the point was that the tweeter selected a relatively high baseline year in order to falsely suggest that gas prices have simply followed inflation. It’s not true that inflation-adjusted gas prices have “barely budged since 1980.” They budged quite a bit in the interim, usually — there I go again — averaging more than $1 lower in a given year.


Politicians are usually pretty successful at mollifying people upset by high gas prices by pointing out that adjusted for inflation, the current prices are not that big a deal.  This kind of thinking is why Democrats routinely win the Presidency and majorities in the House and Senate.


What would be nice to see as part of this analysis is the cost of a gallon of gas in current dollars ex-taxes.  Seems a bit like comparing apples to oranges when taxes are included given the increase in both state and federal gas taxes over the years.


tjohn said:

Politicians are usually pretty successful at mollifying people upset by high gas prices by pointing out that adjusted for inflation, the current prices are not that big a deal.  This kind of thinking is why Democrats routinely win the Presidency and majorities in the House and Senate.

numbers without context aren't very meaningful. Ans it's not saying "no big deal" by saying it's not unprecedented. 


DaveSchmidt said:

I’d say above $4 in only eight out of 44 years, and in only three clusters, with an average of $3.14 over the span, makes $4.50 unusual. Your mileage, as they say, may vary.

But the point was that the tweeter selected a relatively high baseline year in order to falsely suggest that gas prices have simply followed inflation. It’s not true that inflation-adjusted gas prices have “barely budged since 1980.” They budged quite a bit in the interim, usually — there I go again — averaging more than $1 lower in a given year.

it would also be accurate to say prices occasionally spike to where they are now and then typically drift downward again. 


ml1 said:

it would also be accurate to say prices occasionally spike to where they are now and then typically drift downward again.

Also known as “budging.” We appear to be in agreement on the fallacy of that tweet.


Steve said:

What would be nice to see as part of this analysis is the cost of a gallon of gas in current dollars ex-taxes.  Seems a bit like comparing apples to oranges when taxes are included given the increase in both state and federal gas taxes over the years.

The comparison is to the average retail prices over the years, so the taxes are a part of that price. And, the price the customer pays is the one to compare over the years.


ml1 said:

that article suggests that $4.50 a gallon gas hasn't been all that unusual through the years, adjusted for inflation. So I'm not sure what the point is. 

The point was that if you're saying that it hasn't budged, and you're comparing to a point where the price was higher than normal (1980), then you're ignoring that the trend/average is lower.


drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

more speculation on whether the Fed's approach (their only approach) to fight inflation is correct.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3506214-the-feds-cure-for-inflation-is-worse-recession/

Great stuff from a Fox News commentator and former advisor to Newt Gingrich. 

Here’s a better state of play article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/31/inflation-economy-timeline/

Nice Monday morning quarterbacking there.

Kind of useless information today.

And that makes it better than what, exactly?

Better than a half-baked opinion piece from a Fox News guy.


nohero said:

Steve said:

What would be nice to see as part of this analysis is the cost of a gallon of gas in current dollars ex-taxes.  Seems a bit like comparing apples to oranges when taxes are included given the increase in both state and federal gas taxes over the years.

The comparison is to the average retail prices over the years, so the taxes are a part of that price. And, the price the customer pays is the one to compare over the years.

Yes, but my point is that the increase is not due solely to market forces/inflation, but other factors as well.  A few years ago, we had here in NJ a - I think - $.29/gallon increase in the gas tax.  That amount (and other additional tax increases) have nothing to do with inflationary pressures.


It seems $5 (for regular unleaded) is a bit of a psychological barrier that the local gasoline market is resisting. I've seen several $4.99 9/10s recently but no 5-handles. But I suspect it's inevitable, being we're entering peak summer driving season and oil prices are on the rise. 


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