Inflation Scaremongering

Smedley said:

How do you know the gas is good quality? I always assume gas is the same everywhere, and the name brands can charge more just because they're name brands. I don't seek out discount / no-name places, but I end up at those places sometimes, and I've never had a problem afterwards.

https://www.autolist.com/guides/top-tier-gas


I'll still be okay with buying cheap gas based on past experience but it's interesting to know there's something to it. 

Separately, and back to the topic of the thread, is this inflation scaremongering? 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-lunch-work-from-home-11647611074?st=7vhau71e0kvo08u&reflink=share_mobilewebshare


Smedley said:

I'll still be okay with buying cheap gas based on past experience but it's interesting to know there's something to it. 

Separately, and back to the topic of the thread, is this inflation scaremongering? 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-lunch-work-from-home-11647611074?st=7vhau71e0kvo08u&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

paywall


drummerboy said:

paywall

tl;dr - midtown lunch still terrible, now even more expensive.


drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

I'll still be okay with buying cheap gas based on past experience but it's interesting to know there's something to it. 

Separately, and back to the topic of the thread, is this inflation scaremongering? 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-lunch-work-from-home-11647611074?st=7vhau71e0kvo08u&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

paywall

I read it for free via 

https://twitter.com/GRogow/status/1505884556376821768?s=20&t=xW5yxquVbS3quGObQPeJ4A

Perhaps if the WSJ didn't raise subscription prices due to inflation, you could afford to read it. 


Smedley said:

jimmurphy said:

the gas is good quality.

How do you know the gas is good quality? I always assume gas is the same everywhere, and the name brands can charge more just because they're name brands. I don't seek out discount / no-name places, but I end up at those places sometimes, and I've never had a problem afterwards.

There is the Top Tier certification program which some auto manufacturers recommend.  Also, it's worth noting that the BP Premium is (or at least used to be) the only fuel in the area that doesn't flow from one of two distribution pipelines.


I got past the paywall.

The article includes this para:

Mark Davis, a 30-year-old tech sales representative in Chicago, returned
to working from the office two or three days a week in October. He says
he is spending roughly $50 more every day on food and commuting than he
was while working remotely.

Now, how typical is someone's cost of living going up by $50 a day?


drummerboy said:

The article includes this para:

Mark Davis, a 30-year-old tech sales representative in Chicago, returned
to working from the office two or three days a week in October. He says
he is spending roughly $50 more every day on food and commuting than he
was while working remotely.

Now, how typical is someone's cost of living going up by $50 a day?

Return-to-office will automatically increase my cost of living about $10 a day for the train into NYC. Then there will be the snacks and takeout meals, so let’s say $25. (Maybe Davis’s commute and dining habits cost more than mine.) Neither added expense has anything to do with inflation, so I took Davis’s example as simply an anecdotal refection of facing RTO in conjunction with it.


DaveSchmidt said:

Return-to-office will automatically increase my cost of living about $10 a day for the train into NYC. Then there will be the snacks and takeout meals, so let’s say $25. (Maybe Davis’s commute and dining habits cost more than mine.) Neither added expense has anything to do with inflation, so I took Davis’s example as simply an anecdotal refection of facing RTO in conjunction with it.

If one drove into the city rather than taking mass transit, $50/day likely wouldn't cover tolls and parking, never mind lunch, snacks, and gas.


DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

The article includes this para:

Mark Davis, a 30-year-old tech sales representative in Chicago, returned
to working from the office two or three days a week in October. He says
he is spending roughly $50 more every day on food and commuting than he
was while working remotely.

Now, how typical is someone's cost of living going up by $50 a day?

Return-to-office will automatically increase my cost of living about $10 a day for the train into NYC. Then there will be the snacks and takeout meals, so let’s say $25. (Maybe Davis’s commute and dining habits cost more than mine.) Neither added expense has anything to do with inflation, so I took Davis’s example as simply an anecdotal refection of facing RTO in conjunction with it.

I guess I asked the wrong question about that paragraph. The question I should have asked is why lead the article about inflation with an anecdote of increased costs that are not completely due to inflation?

Maybe because $50 a day is a scary number?


Smedley said:

More scaremongering:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fewer-hot-showers-less-meat-143648837.html

I think the author missed the real point, which is how inadequate SS benefits are. Instead of highlighting a year of inflation, maybe it should have been a story about how living on SS alone leaves many people in poverty. 

Eliminate the cap on SS taxes and pay a living benefit. 


drummerboy said:

I guess I asked the wrong question about that paragraph. The question I should have asked is why lead the article about inflation with an anecdote of increased costs that are not completely due to inflation?

Maybe because $50 a day is a scary number?

The number terrified me, until the 67% increase -- I mean $6 -- in the price of a sandwich two paragraphs later talked me down. I'm hoping WSJ subscribers don't rattle as easily as I do.


ml1 said:

Smedley said:

More scaremongering:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fewer-hot-showers-less-meat-143648837.html

I think the author missed the real point, which is how inadequate SS benefits are. Instead of highlighting a year of inflation, maybe it should have been a story about how living on SS alone leaves many people in poverty. 

Eliminate the cap on SS taxes and pay a living benefit. 

The real point of this particular story is the impact of inflation on seniors. In the story, the author presented ample context about SS and its limitations. 

"Eliminate the cap on SS taxes and pay a living benefit" is a topic for separate op-ed. Your critique may as well be "the author missed the real point, which is the need for Build Back Better."  


Smedley said:

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

More scaremongering:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fewer-hot-showers-less-meat-143648837.html

I think the author missed the real point, which is how inadequate SS benefits are. Instead of highlighting a year of inflation, maybe it should have been a story about how living on SS alone leaves many people in poverty. 

Eliminate the cap on SS taxes and pay a living benefit. 

The real point of this particular story is the impact of inflation on seniors. In the story, the author presented ample context about SS and its limitations. 

"Eliminate the cap on SS taxes and pay a living benefit" is a topic for separate op-ed. Your critique may as well be "the author missed the real point, which is the need for Build Back Better."  

SS is not really a great example of the effects of inflation because as the article notes, it's indexed to inflation.  Seniors got a 5.9% raise in benefits this year, and will likely get another next year, so eventually they will catch up to inflation.  If a lag of 3-12 months in getting a raise that makes them whole on the last couple percent of price increases pushes them to cut out essentials like heat, then the problem is that SS benefits aren't really enough to live on.


The price of  West Texas Intermediate is back up to $114 today. 


Steve said:

There is the Top Tier certification program which some auto manufacturers recommend.  Also, it's worth noting that the BP Premium is (or at least used to be) the only fuel in the area that doesn't flow from one of two distribution pipelines.

I only bought gas from BP at vauxhall when I first moved to maplewood, I liked it when the Turkish people owned it. Since they left it wasn’t the same. I noticed a difference in how my truck runs with bp gas, especially on long trips. 
the worse gas was the delta on burnet and Stanley terrace.  So it’s definitely the additives in the gasoline some companies add, that makes the difference.


Don't underestimate the importance of fuel tank maintenance - including ensuring that it is a water-free environment - at each station.


Steve said:

Don't underestimate the importance of fuel tank maintenance - including ensuring that it is a water-free environment - at each station.

yes, I found that water got into my tank the one time I went to delta on burnet. I avoided deltas after that. 


I’m in the UK right now. Just filled up a car with diesel. After converting the currency and liters to us gallons, it appears that gas prices here for diesel are around $8.76 a gallon. We just filled up over 12 gallons for $114.


ridski said:

I’m in the UK right now. Just filled up a car with diesel. After converting the currency and liters to us gallons, it appears that gas prices here for diesel are around $8.76 a gallon. We just filled up over 12 gallons for $114.

thanks Biden.


ridski said:

I’m in the UK right now. Just filled up a car with diesel. After converting the currency and liters to us gallons, it appears that gas prices here for diesel are around $8.76 a gallon. We just filled up over 12 gallons for $114.

More than half of the cost of a liter of fuel is tax with 36% fuel duty and another 17% of the cost being VAT. The cost of diesel ex taxes is $4.12. I checked and the average price of diesel in the US East Coast is $5.14 (but that includes taxes.)

eta - The total tax on gasoline in NJ is 60.8 cents a gallon. Diesel tax is higher at  73.8 cents a gallon. 


ml1 said:

SS is not really a great example of the effects of inflation because as the article notes, it's indexed to inflation.  Seniors got a 5.9% raise in benefits this year, and will likely get another next year, so eventually they will catch up to inflation.  If a lag of 3-12 months in getting a raise that makes them whole on the last couple percent of price increases pushes them to cut out essentials like heat, then the problem is that SS benefits aren't really enough to live on.

The soc sec inflation index is a crappy index because its based on CPI-W. It should be based on CPI-E (consumer price index for the elderly, 62 and over). Often CPI-E is higher because senior needs such as medical are a higher percentage of their costs than those on CPI-W. We see that when there is 1.2% CPI-W increase (before this inflation nonsense) whereas the actual increase for seniors calculated using CPI-E would be about 1.5%.

Also, the medicare deduction is a fixed cost increase irrespective of the total payment. I know someone whose soc sec payment this year went from 844.00 to 880.00 a month, a 4.27% increase due to her large 14.55% medicare increase. A 4.27% increase is paltry considering costs have increased by 7 to 8%.

Using CPI-W instead of CPI-E usually screws senior out of .1 to .3% a year. It adds up over many years. Soc sec will be around 30 years from now but using CPI-W they will find that soc sec gives them only 2/3 of the buying power that seniors currently get.


RTrent said:

The soc sec inflation index is a crappy index because its based on CPI-W. It should be based on CPI-E (consumer price index for the elderly, 62 and over). Often CPI-E is higher because senior needs such as medical are a higher percentage of their costs than those on CPI-W. We see that when there is 1.2% CPI-W increase (before this inflation nonsense) whereas the actual increase for seniors calculated using CPI-E would be about 1.5%.

Also, the medicare deduction is a fixed cost increase irrespective of the total payment. I know someone whose soc sec payment this year went from 844.00 to 880.00 a month, a 4.27% increase due to her large 14.55% medicare increase. A 4.27% increase is paltry considering costs have increased by 7 to 8%.

Using CPI-W instead of CPI-E usually screws senior out of .1 to .3% a year. It adds up over many years. Soc sec will be around 30 years from now but using CPI-W they will find that soc sec gives them only 2/3 of the buying power that seniors currently get.

Messed up situation. 


RTrent said:

Using CPI-W instead of CPI-E usually screws senior out of .1 to .3% a year. It adds up over many years. Soc sec will be around 30 years from now but using CPI-W they will find that soc sec gives them only 2/3 of the buying power that seniors currently get.

Using a compound interest calculator and a difference of 0.2% annually over 30 years, I arrived at this: At the end of that period, a payment adjusted for CPI-E would be 6% higher than a payment adjusted for CPI-W.

How did you arrive at 2/3 the buying power that seniors currently get?


jimmurphy said:

Messed up situation. 

It is messed up. Here's some more info

https://www.ncpssm.org/documents/social-security-policy-papers/the-cpi-e-a-better-option-for-calculating-social-security-colas/

When politicians blab about helping seniors, the question asked should be, why haven't you pushed to change the law so CPI-E is used.


DaveSchmidt said:

Using a compound interest calculator and a difference of 0.2% annually over 30 years, I arrived at this: At the end of that period, a payment adjusted for CPI-E would be 6% higher than a payment adjusted for CPI-W.

How did you arrive at 2/3 the buying power that seniors currently get?



cramer said:

More than half of the cost of a liter of fuel is tax with 36% fuel duty and another 17% of the cost being VAT. The cost of diesel ex taxes is $4.12. I checked and the average price of diesel in the US East Coast is $5.14 (but that includes taxes.)

eta - The total tax on gasoline in NJ is 60.8 cents a gallon. Diesel tax is higher at  73.8 cents a gallon. 

Just reporting the facts on the ground, cramer.


ridski said:

cramer said:

More than half of the cost of a liter of fuel is tax with 36% fuel duty and another 17% of the cost being VAT. The cost of diesel ex taxes is $4.12. I checked and the average price of diesel in the US East Coast is $5.14 (but that includes taxes.)

eta - The total tax on gasoline in NJ is 60.8 cents a gallon. Diesel tax is higher at  73.8 cents a gallon. 

Just reporting the facts on the ground, cramer.

Yep, understood and appreciated. I know that prices in the UK are extremely high both for refined products and natural gas. I know why natural gas prices are high.  I  was surprised when I did a little research and found out that fuel taxes are so high. When you take into taxes, the price of regular gasoline (or petrol, as they call it) and diesel in the UK is not much higher than the US - and they're both high. 

CNBC had someone from Goldman Sachs on this morning to discuss the agreement between the EU and US for the US to supply more LNG to Europe. The guest was also asked why the price of gasoline is still so high when the price of crude oil has fallen. The response was that there is a global market for petroleum, and that the US imports some refined petroleum products.  I'm really not sure if that answers the question. 

eta - I also found out that the UK has the fourth largest refining capacity in Europe and can meet its own refined product petrol demand but not diesel. 



Its always the president's fault if he's in the opposition party and has nothing to do with him if he's in your party.


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