Post mid-term chaos? Or not.

We may end up needing a “Murdoch/deSantis vs Trump” thread. Something tells me it could be very lively over the next two years. 

As things settle out with late results being tabulated I still worry about outbursts of violence. If the Democrats somehow manage to cling to control of the House and Senate, and mainstream Republicans continue to sharpen the knives for DJT, some of the more radical elements of the right could feel compelled to act. What that would look like I don’t know. Protests outside the Capitol building on January 3rd, trying to disrupt swearing in new members?


“House Republicans would not have a majority if it were not for the State of New York,” said Representative Elise Stefanik.
The denouement, particularly on the House map, had not been entirely unforeseen after New York’s once-in-a-decade redistricting process went haywire. Democrats in Albany began the year hopeful that they could draw new lines that would protect their incumbents and cost Republicans as many as four seats in the state to offset Republican gains elsewhere.
But New York’s highest court, in response to a Republican lawsuit, threw out the maps as an unconstitutional gerrymander and put more competitive alternatives in their place. In a handful of other states, courts ruled that Republicans had gerrymandered maps but did not enforce those rulings, but in New York, the judges insisted the lines be redrawn this year — instantly transforming the state into a critical, if unlikely, House battlefield.

Gerrymandering. In Republican states like Wisconsin, they Gerrymander to their hearts delight. Where their state courts said hey its not fair, but do it anyway. We won't enforce fairness.

In NY it wasn't allowed.

We'll see that the Democratic congressional candidates will be 55 to 60% of the national total vote. For the Republican 40 to 45%. But the Republican will likely be the majority.

Same old, same old. Republicans bringing real knives or guns to the fight. Democrats bringing butter knifes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/nyregion/new-york-republicans-house.html

ps - the NY political leadership should have disregarded their courts. Told them Republicans are gerrymandering however they like and so we will do the same.


mrincredible said:

We may end up needing a “Murdoch/deSantis vs Trump” thread. Something tells me it could be very lively over the next two years. 

As things settle out with late results being tabulated I still worry about outbursts of violence. If the Democrats somehow manage to cling to control of the House and Senate, and mainstream Republicans continue to sharpen the knives for DJT, some of the more radical elements of the right could feel compelled to act. What that would look like I don’t know. Protests outside the Capitol building on January 3rd, trying to disrupt swearing in new members?

I don't get the feeling that violence will erupt in any major demonstration. Previously Dems fit neatly in a box labeled Those We Hate, for all the Magas out there. Now, they have to divide their disdain for the Dems with their contempt for the Rs who have abandoned their fearless leader.

As well, the supporters who were not Proud Boys or Oath Keepers but just run of the mill Trump supporters, will be less likely to show up at a major demo now that they've seen the mayhem, the weapons, and the coverage.

It's easy for some to be swept up in the moment at a protest but not so much when you have seen were it ended up.


mrincredible said:

We may end up needing a “Murdoch/deSantis vs Trump” thread. Something tells me it could be very lively over the next two years. 

"Republicans In Disarray"


RTrent said:

Gerrymandering. In Republican states like Wisconsin, they Gerrymander to their hearts delight. Where their state courts said hey its not fair, but do it anyway. We won't enforce fairness.

In NY it wasn't allowed.

We'll see that the Democratic congressional candidates will be 55 to 60% of the national total vote. For the Republican 40 to 45%. But the Republican will likely be the majority.

Same old, same old. Republicans bringing real knives or guns to the fight. Democrats bringing butter knifes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/nyregion/new-york-republicans-house.html

ps - the NY political leadership should have disregarded their courts. Told them Republicans are gerrymandering however they like and so we will do the same.

this is Cuomo’s legacy.  All the result of crappy Court of Appeals appointments, with the corrupt DiFiore. 


ugh - Boebert is up by 433.


jamie said:

ugh - Boebert is up by 433.

Pueblo, Garfield and Pitkin counties still haven't fully reported yet.


About 5000 military ballots been yet to be counted in Boebert's district.  Uh oh.

But I'm calling NV and AZ for Dems at this point.  


GA is gravy at this point. Still...  need to keep Warnock in and I think he'll win.


dave said:

GA is gravy at this point. Still...  need to keep Warnock in and I think he'll win.

51 would mean Joe Manchin doesn't matter as much.


PVW said:

51 would mean Joe Manchin doesn't matter as much.

can I like this 1000 times?


unfortunately, without the House, Manchin becomes a bit player anyway. There won't be much major legislation coming his way that he can obstruct. 

Though I'm sure he'll find a way to be a PITA anyway.


With 99% reporting it seems Boebert just won.


dave said:

With 99% reporting it seems Boebert just won.

Almost every county is still at 95% (Pitkin at 93%) and Boebert is less than 2,000 votes ahead right now. Boebert is likely to win, but Frisch still has a chance. 


Kelly won!

Cortez Mastro is close - I think she'll put that one off.

Boebert still has an 1,122 vote lead.


jamie said:

Kelly won!

Cortez Mastro is close - I think she'll put that one off.

Boebert still has an 1,122 vote lead.

Pity poor Kevin McCarthy. He so wants to be speaker, but if it means that Lauren Boebert will constantly remind him that she's responsible for his slim GOP majority, it could break the man.


nohero said:

jamie said:

Kelly won!

Cortez Mastro is close - I think she'll put that one off.

Boebert still has an 1,122 vote lead.

Pity poor Kevin McCarthy. He so wants to be speaker, but if it means that Lauren Boebert will constantly remind him that she's responsible for his slim GOP majority, it could break the man.

After his groveling at the feet of Trump since January 6th, I am pretty sure he is well past the ability to feel any sort of shame.


I don't know if Boebert winning is good or bad for Dems.   Having raging loonies representing the other side seems to have helped.  Will probably help with getting Biden a 2nd term.


Dem wins Nevada - they hold the Senate

phew


I think the house may be an ungovernable mess for the Republicans, but I also think the Democrats have a lot of work to do.  Imagine if there was no Trump.  Where would the Democrats be?  A bunch of old, mostly white people who don't know how to reach Latino communities.

its time for party leaders to go into these communities and listen to the local leaders.


drummerboy said:

Dem wins Nevada - they hold the Senate

phew

plus we have Georgia coming up. Considering that Biden’s approval ratings has been low, I can safely say the blue levee held that red tide of toxic bacteria at bay.

All this silly talk about a red wave turned out to be nothing more than a light spotting…


I remember about a year ago that someone on this board was badgering a few of us about how Biden's approval rating was something we just HAD to be worried about. It was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems. 

I'm glad I didn't waste my time getting all riled up.


ml1 said:

I remember about a year ago that someone on this board was badgering a few of us about how Biden's approval rating was something we just HAD to be worried about. It was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems. 

I'm glad I didn't waste my time getting all riled up.

I never get worked up, I have confidence in people who stay the course, and project positive vibes. These characters are like that wasp nest under your front porch, I always have a can of spectracide wasp and hornet spray handy. 


If Biden has a Democratic Senate (especially with an extra Senator to get to 51) and a House with a very slim GOP majority, that’s not that bad for 2024.  He can confirm a slew of judges, while the GOP crazies go on full display. 


I’m wondering why these crazy MAGATS forgot about the Jewish Laser Beams? The spirit of a dead South American Dictator? The special boxes and boxes of ballots left under the table. Dominion machines rigged in favor of Democrats and all their other wild and crazy conspiracy theories. Their voter suppression plan backfired and motivated tens of thousands to come to the polls and vote in person or mail in a ballot. Maybe it's a good thing some of the extreme crazies were still elected. It might very well remind the public just how important it is to get out and vote. The democrats did very well considering everything. 


ml1 said:

I remember about a year ago that someone on this board was badgering a few of us about how Biden's approval rating was something we just HAD to be worried about. It was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems. 

I'm glad I didn't waste my time getting all riled up.

I did/do believe Biden's approval rating was a concern for Democrats in that it held implications for the midterms among other things. I highly doubt I ever said "it was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems" or any such similar declaration/prediction - show what you got if I did, and I'll own it.

And just because the bad scenario didn't play out in the midterms doesn't mean that Biden's approval rating wasn't a valid concern for the midterms. In fact, I remember a couple months ago someone on this board changing his tune from a presidential approval rating is. not. causative. to well, maybe sometimes it's causative.   


A follow up on my preceding comment:

https://maplewood.worldwebs.com/forums/discussion/subforum/post-mid-term-chaos/politics-plus?page=next&limit=30#discussion-replies-3603180

For the last two years, Republican state legislators have been openly breaking the law in drawing districts. In Ohio, they flatly defied the state Supreme Court’s orders to draw a better map until it was too late to change the illegal one. And in several other states, they appear simply to be waiting until the Supreme Court throws out the part of the Voting Rights Act that their maps are currently violating. If the G.O.P. does come away from the midterms with a narrow majority in the House, it will owe that advantage to its literal and figurative refusal to abide by legal boundaries.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/opinion/trump-republican-gop-midterms.html

To repeat -

The NY political leadership should have disregarded their courts. Told them Republicans are gerrymandering however they like and so we will do the same.


Smedley said:

ml1 said:

I remember about a year ago that someone on this board was badgering a few of us about how Biden's approval rating was something we just HAD to be worried about. It was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems. 

I'm glad I didn't waste my time getting all riled up.

I did/do believe Biden's approval rating was a concern for Democrats in that it held implications for the midterms among other things. I highly doubt I ever said "it was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems" or any such similar declaration/prediction - show what you got if I did, and I'll own it.

And just because the bad scenario didn't play out in the midterms doesn't mean that Biden's approval rating wasn't a valid concern for the midterms. In fact, I remember a couple months ago someone on this board changing his tune from a presidential approval rating is. not. causative. to well, maybe sometimes it's causative.   

Biden's approval rating is something to worry about. There is a coattail effect even when the president is not running. Had he a decent approval rating the Democrats would likely have kept the house. 


I have to give a shoutout to Michael Moore.  I was receiving his daily email where he was highlighting "Midterm Tsunami Truths"  You can see previous ones here:

https://www.michaelmoore.com/

I was really dismissive about them thinking that they were nice hopes, but ultimately wouldn't come to fruition.  I have to say - Mike is a pretty good predictor!

Here's his post for today:

https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/midterm-tsunami-truth-42


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