The race for the GOP 2024 nomination for President is heating up, so it probably needs its own thread.
And by "race" it's clearly a race to the bottom, to see who can demonstrate that they're a bigger piece of excrement than anyone else who wants it.
Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are definitely ahead of, I mean below, any other wannabes. But don't discount anyone on this plunge.
For example, Mike Pompeo is working hard to show that he's as sh*tty a human being as anyone could be. In his new book, he dismisses as "faux outrage" the reaction to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi .:"The media made Khashoggi out to be a Saudi Arabian Bob Woodward who was martyred for bravely criticising the Saudi royal family through his opinion articles in the Washington Post ... In truth, Khashoggi was an activist who had supported the losing team in a recent fight for the throne in Saudi Arabia, and he was unhappy with having been exiled."
And then he berated the Washington Post for being offended.
Americans are safer because we didn’t label Saudi Arabia a pariah state. I never let the media bully me. Just b/c someone is a part-time stringer for WaPo doesn’t make their life more important than our military serving in dangerous places protecting us all. I never forgot that. https://t.co/jidmb6R6oU
Ron DeSantis doesn't burn books, he just threatens to jail teachers who don't get permission to put a book anywhere a student might pick it up and read it.
In Ron DeSantis' Florida, all books are presumed guilty until proven innocent.
The book banning policy signed by DeSantis is so draconian that all books are presumed dangerous, and must be locked up until the censors have had a chance to vet them.
So we Democrats need to find some young bright lights and get moving. All of you mocking these candidates need to remember that they are winning way too often. Any Republican other than trump could have beaten Biden in 2020. Republicans in Congress are a mess, but they are the majority in the house.
The race for the GOP 2024 nomination for President is heating up, so it probably needs its own thread.
And by "race" it's clearly a race to the bottom, to see who can demonstrate that they're a bigger piece of excrement than anyone else who wants it.
Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are definitely ahead of, I mean below, any other wannabes. But don't discount anyone on this plunge.
For example, Mike Pompeo is working hard to show that he's as sh*tty a human being as anyone could be. In his new book, he dismisses as "faux outrage" the reaction to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi .:"The media made Khashoggi out to be a Saudi Arabian Bob Woodward who was martyred for bravely criticising the Saudi royal family through his opinion articles in the Washington Post ... In truth, Khashoggi was an activist who had supported the losing team in a recent fight for the throne in Saudi Arabia, and he was unhappy with having been exiled."
And then he berated the Washington Post for being offended.
by his logic, it would have been a-ok for the Biden Admin to follow Steve Bannon overseas and murder him. Hey, he was on the losing side. Tough luck.
I'd like Joe to ride off into the sunset (and the sunset of his life) secure in the knowledge that he saved us from Trump, achieved BIG legislative wins, and stuck to his self-described "transitional POTUS" label.
That said, I have no idea who should run in his place. Who is a nationally well-regarded statesperson to replace him?
I think good younger Democrats will percolate up over the next year or so. But we need more democrats in county, state, and congressional races nationwide. One way to win a Congressional race might be to actually look into the claims that your opponent is making about his resume and past. Complacency cost the democrats that seat in Queens.
I'd like Joe to ride off into the sunset (and the sunset of his life) secure in the knowledge that he saved us from Trump, achieved BIG legislative wins, and stuck to his self-described "transitional POTUS" label.
That said, I have no idea who should run in his place. Who is a nationally well-regarded statesperson to replace him?
I’m not sure there is any nationally well-regarded statesperson waiting in the wings. Might have to be a regionally well-regarded person who steps up to the national level. Who that is, I’m not sure - Whitmer or Pritzker perhaps? Just guesses.
But I agree w your point on Joe. He beat Trump, got infrastructure passed and got us through the pandemic. Time to ride off into the sunset. No more dementia in the White House, please.
btw: welcome back. I always appreciated your authenticity.
I'd like Joe to ride off into the sunset (and the sunset of his life) secure in the knowledge that he saved us from Trump, achieved BIG legislative wins, and stuck to his self-described "transitional POTUS" label.
That said, I have no idea who should run in his place. Who is a nationally well-regarded statesperson to replace him?
I'd like Joe to ride off into the sunset (and the sunset of his life) secure in the knowledge that he saved us from Trump, achieved BIG legislative wins, and stuck to his self-described "transitional POTUS" label.
That said, I have no idea who should run in his place. Who is a nationally well-regarded statesperson to replace him?
I think there's parallel discussions going into 2024.
On the Democratic side, there's "Should Joe Run?" It's related to the question, "Who should run if it's not Joe?" Personally, I think the Democrats should do some hard thinking about the answer to the second question before definitively deciding on the answer to the first question.
On the Republican side, there's the collection of genuinely offensive people mixed in with the obvious right-wing puppets.
And I think these are parallel discussions, not intertwined. The Democrats have to make their decision no matter who manages to win the very ugly contest to be the GOP nominee. What the Democrats can't do, though, is let the media and by extension the general public fail to focus on the seriously awful policies and political philosophies of the "Hedley's Army" collection of contenders on the GOP side.
Trump is going to win every Republican Presidential nomination until he dies. He’s the new Lyndon Larouche.
I won’t belabor my past points about how the nomination process is set up to favor a candidate like him. Just suffice it to say he needs less than 15 million fervent supporters to vote for him in the primaries.
I think DeSantis may have some early victories but will flame out. He can’t take the Trump loyalist votes away and he’s too Trumpy to snatch up enough of the other GOP voters. Even if Trump is in legal crisis, I think he had a lot of voters who won’t come out for another candidate.
Trump is going to win every Republican Presidential nomination until he dies. He’s the new Lyndon Larouche.
I read a comment yesterday that if Trump attorney Harmeet Dhillon wins the contest for RNC chair, there will barely be a GOP primary contest against Trump, and if McDaniel is reelected the odds are 50-50.
a lot of the typical "Dems in disarray" coverage about the party not having a leading presidential candidate outside of Biden is typically stupid Beltway conventional (not)wisdom.
it's like people forget that Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were nobody's idea of statesmen or party leaders when they announced their campaigns. And for those who may have forgotten, each was eventually elected POTUS.
Not to mention that the pundits thought TFG's candidacy was a complete joke when he announced.
Someone will emerge from the Democratic primaries as a strong and viable candidate. And his/her biggest challenge will be heading off the blizzard of lies about him/her that will characterize the GOP strategy.
A funny thing is the GOP has it in their power to expunge their Trump problem. He could be forbidden from running for office again by a 67% vote in the House and Senate. I don’t think there’s a Democrat who wouldn’t vote for that.
That would be like a baseball team deciding to cut a bunch of players with huge contracts who aren’t delivering wins. Admit that it’s time to retool, commit to taking some lumps for a few years and get back in the game with a better lineup.
It’s strange because the party has a lot going for it politically. It still controls a majority of legislatures and governorships so it has a lot of control over Congressional districting. It still has an advantage in the Senatebbecause of the rule of two Senators per state no matter the population. They could rebrand themselves once again as the party of fiscal conservatism, and maybe drop some of the social conservative crap that they’re saddled with right now. That’s how they might be able to win back some Biden voters.
But they can’t do it. They can’t bear to face the wrath of the Trumpers. I think as a group they’re afraid they can’t win without those 12-15 million diehard MAGA voters. And they believe that it’s political suicide to take a stand against him. ANY Republican congressperson who joined in a vote to bar him from future office would be risking the fate of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinziger.
The irony is that he’s an albatross around the neck of the GOP. And I think he’ll be a presence in their primaries for a long time and will always have a good chance of winning the nomination.
A funny thing is the GOP has it in their power to expunge their Trump problem. He could be forbidden from running for office again by a 67% vote in the House and Senate. I don’t think there’s a Democrat who wouldn’t vote for that.
That would be like a baseball team deciding to cut a bunch of players with huge contracts who aren’t delivering wins. Admit that it’s time to retool, commit to taking some lumps for a few years and get back in the game with a better lineup.
It’s strange because the party has a lot going for it politically. It still controls a majority of legislatures and governorships so it has a lot of control over Congressional districting. It still has an advantage in the Senatebbecause of the rule of two Senators per state no matter the population. They could rebrand themselves once again as the party of fiscal conservatism, and maybe drop some of the social conservative crap that they’re saddled with right now. That’s how they might be able to win back some Biden voters.
But they can’t do it. They can’t bear to face the wrath of the Trumpers. I think as a group they’re afraid they can’t win without those 12-15 million diehard MAGA voters. And they believe that it’s political suicide to take a stand against him. ANY Republican congressperson who joined in a vote to bar him from future office would be risking the fate of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinziger.
The irony is that he’s an albatross around the neck of the GOP. And I think he’ll be a presence in their primaries for a long time and will always have a good chance of winning the nomination.
They are probably just hoping he will die and save them the discomfort.
a lot of the typical "Dems in disarray" coverage about the party not having a leading presidential candidate outside of Biden is typically stupid Beltway conventional (not)wisdom.
it's like people forget that Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were nobody's idea of statesmen or party leaders when they announced their campaigns. And for those who may have forgotten, each was eventually elected POTUS.
Not to mention that the pundits thought TFG's candidacy was a complete joke when he announced.
Someone will emerge from the Democratic primaries as a strong and viable candidate. And his/her biggest challenge will be heading off the blizzard of lies about him/her that will characterize the GOP strategy.
Ehud Barak Obama?
I disagree re: Barack Obama. He was seen as the chosen one dating back to his transcendent DNC speech in 2004 -- by the time he announced in 2007 he was a legit big deal and Hillary knew she was screwed.
I disagree re: Barack Obama. He was seen as the chosen one dating back to his transcendent DNC speech in 2004 -- by the time he announced in 2007 he was a legit big deal and Hillary knew she was screwed.
That was not the conventional wisdom around the MOL in 2007 and early 2008.
I disagree re: Barack Obama. He was seen as the chosen one dating back to his transcendent DNC speech in 2004 -- by the time he announced in 2007 he was a legit big deal and Hillary knew she was screwed.
I agree. Then Oprah had him on her show, and the rest is history.
a lot of the typical "Dems in disarray" coverage about the party not having a leading presidential candidate outside of Biden is typically stupid Beltway conventional (not)wisdom.
it's like people forget that Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were nobody's idea of statesmen or party leaders when they announced their campaigns. And for those who may have forgotten, each was eventually elected POTUS.
Not to mention that the pundits thought TFG's candidacy was a complete joke when he announced.
Someone will emerge from the Democratic primaries as a strong and viable candidate. And his/her biggest challenge will be heading off the blizzard of lies about him/her that will characterize the GOP strategy.
Ehud Barak Obama?
I disagree re: Barack Obama. He was seen as the chosen one dating back to his transcendent DNC speech in 2004 -- by the time he announced in 2007 he was a legit big deal and Hillary knew she was screwed.
you can disagree, but you're wrong. Obama was indeed considered a rising star, but he was by no means experienced or considered a party leader in 2007. He hadn't even completed one term in the Senate. Remember Palin's "community organizer" put-down?
Clinton was considered a shoo-in at the time, and it was considered too soon for Obama to be running. He only became a big deal after he started doing well in the primaries.
It only seems like he was a big shot in retrospect.
In early 2007, in head-to-head polls Clinton's lead was anywhere from +14 to +29 over Obama. Before mid-2006, most pollsters didn't even include Obama in their surveys.
So he was hardly considered a Democratic Party leader before he announced his candidacy.
Incumbent presidents almost always win re-election.
Biden’s candidacy was kaput after early 2020.
Midterm elections are always a disaster for the sitting president.
Younger people become conservative as they age.
Everything we assumed was gospel from the 20th and early 21st century no longer informs the future, IMHO. Karl Rove changed the game, Trump knocked over the board. Everyone is trying to put the pieces back where they belong. I don’t think it’s ever going back.
I don’t know who is out there among Democrats that’s going to excite the base, inspire young people to get out the vote, and also not make centrists and independents uneasy. The last one you’ll need to win the general election. The first two to win the nomination.
I like Kamala Harris but I don’t think she can win the general. There’s too much racism and sexism in the electorate still. Likewise Pete Buttegieg is just a great, smart, charismatic guy but would an openly gay man win the general? Maybe in another generation but not 2024.
I think Democrats best defense against a second Trump term is another Biden campaign. People like the guy and I think he’s been reasonably progressive. I wish he was 65.
Has Hilary Clinton made any overtures?
Gavin Newsome? Andy Beshear? Roy Cooper? The last two are democrat governors of red states.
Wes Moore? He’s a much of a political neophyte as Obama was.
Incumbent presidents almost always win re-election.
Biden’s candidacy was kaput after early 2020.
Midterm elections are always a disaster for the sitting president.
Younger people become conservative as they age.
Everything we assumed was gospel from the 20th and early 21st century no longer informs the future, IMHO. Karl Rove changed the game, Trump knocked over the board. Everyone is trying to put the pieces back where they belong. I don’t think it’s ever going back.
I don’t know who is out there among Democrats that’s going to excite the base, inspire young people to get out the vote, and also not make centrists and independents uneasy. The last one you’ll need to win the general election. The first two to win the nomination.
I like Kamala Harris but I don’t think she can win the general. There’s too much racism and sexism in the electorate still. Likewise Pete Buttegieg is just a great, smart, charismatic guy but would an openly gay man win the general? Maybe in another generation but not 2024.
I think Democrats best defense against a second Trump term is another Biden campaign. People like the guy and I think he’s been reasonably progressive. I wish he was 65.
Has Hilary Clinton made any overtures?
Gavin Newsome? Andy Beshear? Roy Cooper? The last two are democrat governors of red states.
Wes Moore? He’s a much of a political neophyte as Obama was.
we've also got a year of GOP control of the House before the primaries even begin. Who knows how much damage the Republican caucus in the House might do the party's brand among unaffiliated voters? None of us know what decisions the SCOTUS will hand down this year either, that could hurt Republican's standing with independents.
But no matter what, it's almost certain that any Republican presidential candidate is going to win at least the 232 EVs that Trump captured. And is probably going to get at least 45% of the popular vote. That's the people who will never, ever vote for any Democrat. But that could be their floor AND their ceiling if the GOP gets any more extreme, especially in the House.
Which is to say, that there's still a lot of history to be written before someone stands on the stage at the DNC to accept the nomination.
I admit I had no idea who Obama was until shortly before he became the Dem nominee (I had a newborn around then, so politics was mostly off my radar). I just assumed Clinton was going to be it at the time.
a lot of the typical "Dems in disarray" coverage about the party not having a leading presidential candidate outside of Biden is typically stupid Beltway conventional (not)wisdom.
it's like people forget that Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were nobody's idea of statesmen or party leaders when they announced their campaigns. And for those who may have forgotten, each was eventually elected POTUS.
Not to mention that the pundits thought TFG's candidacy was a complete joke when he announced.
Someone will emerge from the Democratic primaries as a strong and viable candidate. And his/her biggest challenge will be heading off the blizzard of lies about him/her that will characterize the GOP strategy.
Ehud Barak Obama?
I disagree re: Barack Obama. He was seen as the chosen one dating back to his transcendent DNC speech in 2004 -- by the time he announced in 2007 he was a legit big deal and Hillary knew she was screwed.
you can disagree, but you're wrong. Obama was indeed considered a rising star, but he was by no means experienced or considered a party leader in 2007. He hadn't even completed one term in the Senate. Remember Palin's "community organizer" put-down?
Clinton was considered a shoo-in at the time, and it was considered too soon for Obama to be running. He only became a big deal after he started doing well in the primaries.
It only seems like he was a big shot in retrospect.
"Hillary knew she was screwed" when Obama announced was an overstatement on my part. But Obama was a big shot in 2007, in the sense that he was second in the polling right off the bat and stayed there for most of the year. So yeah, that's a big shot.
Going back to the comp with this election cycle, if any new shooter / fresh face candidate on either side announces their candidacy in the near future and is immediately #2 in the polling at 15-20% support, I'd also declare them a big shot. I guess you wouldn't. Takes a lot just to not be a single-digit midget in the very early stages of an election cycle, when there may be 10-15 names in the mix.
I'd agree with you about whether Obama was a big shot in 2007, if you were right.
"Hillary knew she was screwed" when Obama announced was an overstatement on my part. But Obama was a big shot in 2007, in the sense that he was second in the polling right off the bat and stayed there for most of the year. So yeah, that's a big shot.
Going back to the comp with this election cycle, if any new shooter / fresh face Dem candidate announces their candidacy in the near future and is immediately #2 in the polling at 15-20% support, I'd also declare them a big shot. I guess you wouldn't. Takes a lot just to not be a single-digit midget in the very early stages of a an election cycle, when there are 10-15 names in the mix.
I'd agree with you about whether Obama was a big shot in 2007, if you were right.
if we go back to my original post here's how I defined a "big shot""
it's like people forget that Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were nobody's idea of statesmen or party leaders when they announced their campaigns.
Obama was not a Democratic Party leader at that time. And certainly the term "statesman" wasn't being used to describe him.
If some rising star of the Democratic Party like John Fetterman declared and polled at 15-20% it wouldn't make him a statesman or a Democratic Party leader. It would certainly make him a formidable opponent. As was Obama eighteen months ahead of the election. Which was pretty much my larger point above -- that someone who isn't being considered by the pundits to be likely to declare a run may turn out to the the strongest candidate.
The race for the GOP 2024 nomination for President is heating up, so it probably needs its own thread.
And by "race" it's clearly a race to the bottom, to see who can demonstrate that they're a bigger piece of excrement than anyone else who wants it.
Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are definitely ahead of, I mean below, any other wannabes. But don't discount anyone on this plunge.
For example, Mike Pompeo is working hard to show that he's as sh*tty a human being as anyone could be. In his new book, he dismisses as "faux outrage" the reaction to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi .:"The media made Khashoggi out to be a Saudi Arabian Bob Woodward who was martyred for bravely criticising the Saudi royal family through his opinion articles in the Washington Post ... In truth, Khashoggi was an activist who had supported the losing team in a recent fight for the throne in Saudi Arabia, and he was unhappy with having been exiled."
And then he berated the Washington Post for being offended.