Global Climate Change: Now we can add the accelerated sinking of Venice to our accomplishments

This is the short news story on NBC News:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/four-star-warning-generals-dub-climate-change-security-risk-n104751

Here's the link to the Center for Naval Analysis's study:
http://www.cna.org/reports/accelerating-risks

This study is a follow-on to its 2007 study.

Here's a quote from beginning of the study:

"In the seven years since the first MAB report, developments in scientific climate projections, observed climate changes (particularly in the Arctic), the toll of extreme weather events both at home and abroad, and changes in the global security environment have all served to accelerate the national security implications of climate change. While there has been some movement in efforts to plan effective responses to these challenges, the lack of comprehensive action by both the United States and the international community to address the full spectrum of projected climate change issues remains a concern."

Military generals and admirals (16 retired generals and admirals worked on the report) are not usually associated with "left wing" causes. By almost any standard the military is a conservative institution and its leaders are also conservative.

It probably won't make difference to the wing nuts in Congress, but it is pretty hard to ignore the military. After all, it is they that the wing nuts will call upon to go fight somewhere.

Those "left wing" scientists at NASA released this:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/april-2nd-warmest-globally-average-for-u.s-17433

"According to the latest NASA data, the planet’s average April temperature was 58.5°F — 1.3°F above the average temperature from 1951-1980. That ranks behind only April 2010 in the warmest Aprils on record. In particular, Europe and Asia saw an extremely warm month."

US was cold in the Northeast and the West Coast baked.

For those who say it's just fluctuations, just note this quote:

"That makes April the 350th month in a row — more than 29 years — with above-average temperatures, largely caused by the buildup of manmade greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere."

29 years in a row that global temps have risen above the 1951-1980 average.

Down in Alabama where it is close to illegal for government employees to discuss global warming, here's this item from Bloomberg News:
'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-12/alabama-avoids-preparing-for-rising-seas-menacing-mobile.html

Must be fun to plan for the future down there.

And here's a story about how two groups of scientists believe that the Antarctic Ice Sheets will collapse -- moving beyond the tipping point.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?ref=science&_r=0

who knew all those generals were secret commies hell bent on destroying the U.S. economy.

How many feet above sea level is Maplewood? I am just wondering if I should make mention in my will of a water front property.

just don't buy in Miami
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/11/09/3742641/rising-sea-levels-falling-real.html

And if you're looking in Manhattan, consider taxes to build a sea wall.

pmartinezv said:

How many feet above sea level is Maplewood? I am just wondering if I should make mention in my will of a water front property.

~200 feet. I don't think it will get to that point.

tom said:

pmartinezv said:

How many feet above sea level is Maplewood? I am just wondering if I should make mention in my will of a water front property.

~200 feet. I don't think it will get to that point.

172 actually, and yes, I am afraid not... But the beach will be way closer!

Here's a summary of a report from an MIT scientist on poleward migration of major storms:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140514133432.htm

This may help get that beachfront property thing moving faster. Here's a quote:

"Powerful, destructive tropical cyclones are now reaching their peak intensity farther from the equator and closer to the poles, according to a new study co-authored by an MIT scientist.

"The results of the study, published today in the journal Nature, show that over the last 30 years, tropical cyclones -- also known as hurricanes or typhoons -- are moving poleward at a rate of about 33 miles per decade in the Northern Hemisphere and 38 miles per decade in the Southern Hemisphere.

" 'The absolute value of the latitudes at which these storms reach their maximum intensity seems to be increasing over time, in most places,' says Kerry Emanuel, an MIT professor and co-author of the new paper. 'The trend is statistically significant at a pretty high level.' "

Fake science. Just like evolution.

Seems like a lot of hype and scare tactics.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-obamas-global-warming-folly/2013/07/04/a51c4ed0-e3fc-11e2-a11e-c2ea876a8f30_story.html

That old op-ed concludes with Krauthammer expressing a desire to reduce CO2 emissions ("I’m not against a global pact to reduce CO2."), which is entirely in line with the president.

So what is the hype?

Boinky said:

Seems like a lot of hype and scare tactics.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-obamas-global-warming-folly/2013/07/04/a51c4ed0-e3fc-11e2-a11e-c2ea876a8f30_story.html

Do you care that he opens his argument with a flat out lie?

"Global temperatures have been flat for 16 years — a curious time to unveil a grand, hugely costly, socially disruptive anti-warming program. "

Probably not.

It's also 10 months old, from an extremely partisan hack who loves to pontificate about things he knows nothing about, and completely unrelated to the new information being discussed.

And here is another link to a group of scientists who probably not as smart as Krauthammer! This is from AAAS -- the American Association for the Advancement of Science, a quite prestigious institution. They publish Science Magazine, one of the premier science journals that has articles across the gamut of disciplines.

http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AAAS-What-We-Know.pdf

The freaks that deny climate change and deny states and the nation from doing what is necessary are, in my opinion, now verging on criminality. Bad things will happen to people and property, for us and our children and theirs. And when it gets really bad in this century -- check the article once again on the Antarctic Ice Sheet and glaciers -- there will be no choice for much more draconian intervention. By the end of this century the quaint concept of states rights will give way as the sheer destruction we will face is so overwhelming that every state will cede authority to the central government.

Even now those who deny climate change and our role in it, are very happy to have the central government pay for flood insurance for developers who build in flood zones. Right wingers in North Carolina in 2012 got a law passed that forbade scientists to talk about climate change just so big real estate developments could go forward. and the feds pick up the flood insurance. Then when a storm hits, these same thugs come to the government for disaster funds. Not a single solitary shred of integrity, not one shred.

Here's the link to the section on the Northeast from the White House report on climate change:

http://www.globalchange.gov/explore/northeast

Might help to read that.

Here's one for the commuters to NYC:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/storm-surge-could-flood-nyc-1-in-every-4-years-17344

Here are some quotes:

"When a storm, such as Hurricane Sandy, sets waters in New York Harbor rising, those sloshing seas are now 20 times more likely to overtop the Manhattan seawall than 170 years ago, a new study finds.

"The increased risk comes from a combination of sea level rise — which has raised water levels near New York City by nearly 1.5 feet since the mid-1800s — and storm tide, or the amount that local seas rise during a storm. Storm tide is itself a combination of storm surge (the water that a hurricane pushes ahead of it) and the astronomical tide.

"The rise in sea level and storm tide combined puts the odds of storm waters overtopping Manhattan’s defenses at one in every 4 to 5 years, compared to only once in every 100 to 400 years in the 19th century, the study found. (Put another way, the annual chance of a storm overtopping the seawall has gone from about 1 percent to 20-25 percent.)"

Even if off by 100% -- every 8 years instead of every 4 -- this is not good.

this is how you know that the climate change deniers are full of it. when you throw out politics from the equation, and people actually have skin in the game (e.g., owning property in Miami Beach), then EVERYONE realized climate change is real. and that rising water levels are going to put property values in jeopardy.

just like there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no global warming deniers when money is on the line.

There are plenty of atheists in foxholes. It's a situation where the futility of prayer is more apparent than most. :-D

While east coast cities sooner or later have to ready themselves against the inexorable rise in sea levels, the west has its own problems. With the El Nino the prevailing winds were from east to west, blowing in extremely dry air from drought areas, the humidity was only at 5% today in parts of southern California.

The El Nino is a cyclical weather pattern, but the drought preceded the El Nino and now the state will have a very dry summer, which is a disaster in the making. The drought is the major climate issue which the El Nino will exacerbate.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-readies-to-fight-wildfires-365-days-a-year/

Those leftists at Standard & Poor issued the following on credit worthiness of nations over the long haul:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-15/climate-change-to-hit-sovereign-creditworthiness-s-p.html

So far we have financial guys who examine credit worthiness and retired military generals and admirals saying climate change is a REAL problem, it will take many years to correct, if at all, and we had better get our politicians to focus on the future. Your children and mine will live in that world. Sometime during their lifetime parts of the world may become inundated -- like Miami, lower Manhattan, Jersey Shore, Long Island, Mobile, New Orleans, much of Delaware's shore, and North Carolina beaches, Tamp-St. Pete, and so on.

Oh, 100% of California is now in the worst stages of drought. Here's the link.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-severe-drought-or-worse-17444

Jude said:

Those leftists at Standard & Poor issued the following on credit worthiness of nations over the long haul:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-15/climate-change-to-hit-sovereign-creditworthiness-s-p.html

So far we have financial guys who examine credit worthiness and retired military generals and admirals saying climate change is a REAL problem, it will take many years to correct, if at all, and we had better get our politicians to focus on the future. Your children and mine will live in that world. Sometime during their lifetime parts of the world may become inundated -- like Miami, lower Manhattan, Jersey Shore, Long Island, Mobile, New Orleans, much of Delaware's shore, and North Carolina beaches, Tamp-St. Pete, and so on.

Oh but they are focusing on the future. They want to make sure we don't leave big debt for our children. Who cares if they won't have a world to live in, they are more concerned about the bills being paid.

And BENGHAZI! For the children.

I saw that report as well Jude. And it led to Climate Central's handy Surging Seas maps. kmk linked to the same maps in another thread asking bout the levee that shows up running through SO. Here's the one for our area..

http://ss2.climatecentral.org/?bbox=40.9575642968,-74.3114600742,40.4543832484,-73.6447094478&label=New%20York#10/40.7061/-73.9778?level=10&pois=show

So at 5 feet, it's mainly areas nearest bodies of water and wetlands that get inundated (duh!). Crank it to 10 feet, and a mind boggling landscape appears. Our area seems unscathed, which is surprising in light of flooding on non flood protected parts of the East Branch of the Rahway in the four 100 year floods we've had in the past 15 years. I'm guessing that flooding will have too localized an impact to inundate an area big enough to show up.

Start looking east and it becomes catastrophic. Newark Airport, Port Newark & Elizabeth, the South Ward and half the Ironbound are flooded. The Meadowlands is a lake, taking out both spurs of the Turnpike, the Skyway and Hudson County Extension. All of Jersey City is underwater up to and past the Extension. Hoboken is again underwater, this time west of Washington St. No Hudson River crossing, TZ included, is passable. Manhattan retreats past its original shoreline, with the Hudson and East Rivers flowing blocks inland. As for diverting to La Guardia or JFK, those are also built on former swamps and open water, so same story. Stewart Airport will finally become the hub the PA hoped.

Long story short, the Nation's financial capital will be out of commission and unreachable for a tremendous period of time. About the only silver lining is penthouses in all the luxury waterfront developments will skyrocket in value. But don't worry, we'll invent something to fix this any day!

Just some links on how the world is adjusting to climate change (or not!):

First link is how the insurance industry seems to be making money on selling new products for the climate change era:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/05/insuring-the-apocalypse.html

Here's a quote:
"By 2012, insurers had introduced eleven hundred and forty-eight climate-change products and services in fifty-one countries, according to a review by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. If you’re an executive today, for instance, especially if your business emits carbon, you may be interested in a policy from Liberty Mutual that protects against what the company calls “the continuously growing wave of litigation stemming from the alleged improper release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.” If you’re poor and African, you may be interested in reinsurer Swiss Re’s early efforts to insure you and four hundred thousand of your compatriots against drought. A 2007 program promised an eighteen-million-dollar climate-adaptation payout to subsistence farmers if the right “weather trigger” was hit, with premiums paid by international donors."

Insurance industry could just be cynical and sees a business opportunity. But as the capitalists are wont to say, the product is in demand. Good old capitalism.

For the drought areas, we have this obvious fact (obvious in hindsight):
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2014/05/16/wildfires-development-california-west-oregon/9169023/

The damage from fires increases as suburbia continued its inexorable expansion into wooded areas, not unlike the expansion of development in flood areas. Here's a great quote:

"Uncle Sam is spending more to hire additional firefighters and deploy more helicopters, fire trucks, airplanes and other equipment to protect homes in 'wildland-urban interfaces, experts say."

I will take a stab that some of the fire areas have been run by politicians who (a) don't believe in climate change, (b) hate the federal gov't, (c) encourage development whenever and wherever the developers want, and (d) want the feds to bail them out

And this one from National Geo:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/05/140516-drought-wildfire-insects-southwest-connect-dots/

That article has some nice quotes:
"Drought Monitor, which updates national drought trends each week, reported on Thursday that half the area of the lower 48 United States is in drought, and it classified all of California as being in "severe to exceptional" drought. The state hasn't been this dry in 14 years, according to USA Today."

and

"New Mexico and Texas are especially dry. Texas's state climatologist told a gathering in San Antonio this week that the state's four-year drought is among the five worst in 500 years.

"The Panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas is seeing a return of massive dust storms, making some ask whether we are seeing a 'New Dust Bowl,' a reference to the devastating period for farmers during the 1930s. Boise City, Oklahoma, resident Millard Fowler told National Geographic, 'When people ask me if we'll have a Dust Bowl again, I tell them we're having one now.' "

The hope is that a full El Nino could eventually bring storms to California.

So we have insurers, cynically or not, reaping the benefits of businesses and homeowners buying climate change products; we have suburbia continuing its expansion in areas where fires are more and more likely; and we have a gigantic drought in much of the west and south.

Just some links on how the world is adjusting to climate change (or not!):

First link is how the insurance industry seems to be making money on selling new products for the climate change era:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/05/insuring-the-apocalypse.html

Here's a quote:
"By 2012, insurers had introduced eleven hundred and forty-eight climate-change products and services in fifty-one countries, according to a review by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. If you’re an executive today, for instance, especially if your business emits carbon, you may be interested in a policy from Liberty Mutual that protects against what the company calls “the continuously growing wave of litigation stemming from the alleged improper release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.” If you’re poor and African, you may be interested in reinsurer Swiss Re’s early efforts to insure you and four hundred thousand of your compatriots against drought. A 2007 program promised an eighteen-million-dollar climate-adaptation payout to subsistence farmers if the right “weather trigger” was hit, with premiums paid by international donors."

Insurance industry could just be cynical and sees a business opportunity. But as the capitalists are wont to say, the product is in demand. Good old capitalism.

For the drought areas, we have this obvious fact (obvious in hindsight):
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2014/05/16/wildfires-development-california-west-oregon/9169023/

The damage from fires increases as suburbia continued its inexorable expansion into wooded areas, not unlike the expansion of development in flood areas. Here's a great quote:

"Uncle Sam is spending more to hire additional firefighters and deploy more helicopters, fire trucks, airplanes and other equipment to protect homes in 'wildland-urban interfaces, experts say."

I will take a stab that some of the fire areas have been run by politicians who (a) don't believe in climate change, (b) hate the federal gov't, (c) encourage development whenever and wherever the developers want, and (d) want the feds to bail them out

And this one from National Geo:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/05/140516-drought-wildfire-insects-southwest-connect-dots/

That article has some nice quotes:
"Drought Monitor, which updates national drought trends each week, reported on Thursday that half the area of the lower 48 United States is in drought, and it classified all of California as being in "severe to exceptional" drought. The state hasn't been this dry in 14 years, according to USA Today."

and

"New Mexico and Texas are especially dry. Texas's state climatologist told a gathering in San Antonio this week that the state's four-year drought is among the five worst in 500 years.

"The Panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas is seeing a return of massive dust storms, making some ask whether we are seeing a 'New Dust Bowl,' a reference to the devastating period for farmers during the 1930s. Boise City, Oklahoma, resident Millard Fowler told National Geographic, 'When people ask me if we'll have a Dust Bowl again, I tell them we're having one now.' "

The hope is that a full El Nino could eventually bring storms to California.

So we have insurers, cynically or not, reaping the benefits of businesses and homeowners buying climate change products; we have suburbia continuing its expansion in areas where fires are more and more likely; and we have a gigantic drought in much of the west and south.

Not sure how the last post got posted twice! My apologies.