Betrayal

ml1 said:

the sub-head of that Vox article: "The bill’s fate depends on whether he’s acting in good faith or bad faith."

Manchin's actions so far don't give us much reason to believe it's the former.

The WH's response certainly suggests they see the "bad faith' interpretation having greater weight.

OTOH, so much of legislating is performance, so while an ambitious BBB is clearly dead (and likely was from the beginning), I don't think we should write off all hope yet.

The climate stuff is hard though -- that's important, but with 50 votes, one being Mr. Coal Mine, the odds of big action on the legislative side were never high.

I was surprised to see that Manchin took a hard line against the child tax credit (WaPo) though. There goes one piece of BBB that I thought could be passed and that would be greatly beneficial even in a reduced package. I'd trade universal pre-k for that, if it were on the table.


PVW said:


I was surprised to see that Manchin took a hard line against the child tax credit (WaPo) though. There goes one piece of BBB that I thought could be passed and that would be greatly beneficial even in a reduced package. I'd trade universal pre-k for that, if it were on the table.

He has a problem with poor people spending gummint money. What an arse.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-manchin-build-back-better-child-tax-credit-drugs_n_61bf8f6be4b061afe394006d

WASHINGTON — After months of haggling with President Joe Biden and other Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) dashed his party’s hopes on Sunday by announcing he wouldn’t vote for the Build Back Better legislation.

Publicly, his biggest gripes are about the cost of the bill. But privately, Manchin has told his colleagues that he essentially doesn’t trust low-income people to spend government money wisely.

In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.


PVW said:

The climate stuff is hard though -- that's important, but with 50 votes, one being Mr. Coal Mine, the odds of big action on the legislative side were never high.

Is there any hope in reaching out to someone like Romney on the climate issue?  If you can't go through Manchin, it certainly would be delicious to go over him.


I haven’t brushed back up on this yet, but I believe that budget reconciliation can be used only twice in a year. If so, that limitation would pose an obstacle to passing smaller bills.


DaveSchmidt said:

I haven’t brushed back up on this yet, but I believe that budget reconciliation can be used only twice in a year. If so, that limitation would pose an obstacle to passing smaller bills.

Yes, Manchin has wasted the remaining reconciliation for this year.

It's a twofer!


DaveSchmidt said:

I haven’t brushed back up on this yet, but I believe that budget reconciliation can be used only twice in a year. If so, that limitation would pose an obstacle to passing smaller bills.

I hadn't thought of that.  You are probably right.


DaveSchmidt said:

Kudos to you. I posted the quote just in case anyone other than me was curious what his actual words were. 

I wasn't looking for kudos for remembering Manchin used the term "conservative" in some context referring to himself. Noteworthy that we live in a time when a person needs to modify it with "moderate". I guess that's to distinguish himself from the extremists who call themselves conservatives. 

But I suppose Manchin is the best source to answer the question of whether or not he's conservative. 


drummerboy said:

He has a problem with poor people spending gummint money. What an arse.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-manchin-build-back-better-child-tax-credit-drugs_n_61bf8f6be4b061afe394006d

WASHINGTON — After months of haggling with President Joe Biden and other Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) dashed his party’s hopes on Sunday by announcing he wouldn’t vote for the Build Back Better legislation.

Publicly, his biggest gripes are about the cost of the bill. But privately, Manchin has told his colleagues that he essentially doesn’t trust low-income people to spend government money wisely.

In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.

Yeah, he's a conservative. 


ml1 said:

Yeah, he's a conservative. 

Interesting that he ties it to drug use, rampant in W. VA due to the very poverty that the aid would work to reduce.


drummerboy said:

He has a problem with poor people spending gummint money. What an arse.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-manchin-build-back-better-child-tax-credit-drugs_n_61bf8f6be4b061afe394006d

WASHINGTON — After months of haggling with President Joe Biden and other Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) dashed his party’s hopes on Sunday by announcing he wouldn’t vote for the Build Back Better legislation.

Publicly, his biggest gripes are about the cost of the bill. But privately, Manchin has told his colleagues that he essentially doesn’t trust low-income people to spend government money wisely.

In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children, according to two sources familiar with the senator’s comments.

He's always changing his story. In this case I do believe him because he strikes me as one who has contempt for those who are disadvantaged in life. But, they vote for him.

I think the real reason is he's corrupt. Taking care of his and his acquaintances pocket books.

A lying bag of **** which other Democrats and the WH could but can't bluntly call him. He's still needed to get Biden's judicial nominations through the senate.

drummerboy said: 25% of people over 65 in W. Virginia have no natural teeth left.

Well, for him loss of teeth is not a personal issue. 


So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?


Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

Stupid comment. The buck never got a chance to stop there.


Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

I seem to recall McCain got full credit for sinking the attempt to repeal the ACA.


Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

BDS again !


Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

"Shepherding" is difficult when the Republican sheep all fall in line to oppose anything from Biden, and the one "black sheep" Manchin lied when he said he was cooperating.

At this point, blaming Biden for the actions of Senators is silly.


The WH narrative is that Manchin reversed position which is what progressives believe but there's another version of the story that Manchin's position was fixed all along and Biden misjudged. 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/biden-build-back-better-manchin-democrats/index.html 


Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

Curious as to what you think Biden could have done differently. I'm not seeing much to support the idea that Manchin was ever going to vote for this regardless of efforts to convince him -- not holding up the infrastructure bill, not more one on one meetings with the president.


Smedley said:

The WH narrative is that Manchin reversed position which is what progressives believe but there's another version of the story that Manchin's position was fixed all along and Biden misjudged. 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/biden-build-back-better-manchin-democrats/index.html 

what does "fixed" mean exactly? That he was never going to vote for it?

And if was fixed, why did Manchin spend months negotiating?

The only misjudgement was that Biden assumed good faith from Manchin.

Anyway, pretty sure that Manchin's many, varying public statements on the matter show that his position was not fixed.


PVW said:

Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

Curious as to what you think Biden could have done differently. I'm not seeing much to support the idea that Manchin was ever going to vote for this regardless of efforts to convince him -- not holding up the infrastructure bill, not more one on one meetings with the president.

Not announced the "framework for an agreement" in late Oct which was apparently built on sand.  


Smedley said:

PVW said:

Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

Curious as to what you think Biden could have done differently. I'm not seeing much to support the idea that Manchin was ever going to vote for this regardless of efforts to convince him -- not holding up the infrastructure bill, not more one on one meetings with the president.

Not announced the "framework for an agreement" in late Oct which was apparently built on sand.  

and what difference would that have made?


drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

The WH narrative is that Manchin reversed position which is what progressives believe but there's another version of the story that Manchin's position was fixed all along and Biden misjudged. 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/biden-build-back-better-manchin-democrats/index.html 

what does "fixed" mean exactly? That he was never going to vote for it?

And if was fixed, why did Manchin spend months negotiating?

The only misjudgement was that Biden assumed good faith from Manchin.

Anyway, pretty sure that Manchin's many, varying public statements on the matter show that his position was not fixed.

From theCNN article:

In an interview with West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval on Monday morning, Manchin said Democratic leaders knew where he stood all along. "I was at $1.5 from the beginning," Manchin said. "I gave (Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer exactly the philosophical beliefs and the amount of money that I thought we could raise and pay for everything. So they've had that from Day 1, on July 2020, of this year. He's had that."


drummerboy said:

Smedley said:

PVW said:

Smedley said:

So much focus on one Senator. I guess the President has been flawless in shepherding this thing through? 

Remember a certain sign on the desk of Harry S Truman?

Curious as to what you think Biden could have done differently. I'm not seeing much to support the idea that Manchin was ever going to vote for this regardless of efforts to convince him -- not holding up the infrastructure bill, not more one on one meetings with the president.

Not announced the "framework for an agreement" in late Oct which was apparently built on sand.  

and what difference would that have made?

Not put Manchin in a corner if he hadn't in fact signed on at that point, which could have given  negotiations a better chance. 

Also not risked looking bad when the "deal" turns into no deal.

Do you think Biden has done everything right on BBB?  I guess you do.  


Smedley said:

Not announced the "framework for an agreement" in late Oct which was apparently built on sand.  

I still don't see how that would have somehow led Manchin to supporting BBB? The buck still seems firmly in Manchin's hand, no?


Besides teeth, another interesting factoid:

In 1979 life expectancy in West Virginia was only about 14 months shorter than in New York; by 2016 the gap had widened to six years. And yes, Manchin’s home state would benefit immensely from the social spending its Democratic senator seems determined to block.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/opinion/manchin-build-back-better.html

But the fine citizens of WV will continue to vote their cretins into office.


PVW said:

Smedley said:

Not announced the "framework for an agreement" in late Oct which was apparently built on sand.  

I still don't see how that would have somehow led Manchin to supporting BBB? The buck still seems firmly in Manchin's hand, no?

There's the failure of the legislation which may or may not be Manchin's "fault" depending on whether you believe he went back on his word (the WH story) or if he never was signed on in the first place (which is what I believe).

But beyond the failure of the legislation, there's the collateral damage as outlined in the CNN piece I posted. 

I'm not saying BBB would have passed had Biden not announced the framework of an agreement, but I think announcing the framework for the agreement was a bad move. Someone got their wires crossed somewhere, and I have a hard time believing the whole thing boils down to Manchin being a snake and blind-siding everyone. That's a WH cop-out. 

I think this failure is at least partly due to Biden's mismanagement of the whole situation.  


Smedley said:

There's the failure of the legislation which may or may not be Manchin's "fault" depending on whether you believe he went back on his word (the WH story) or if he never was signed on in the first place (which is what I believe).

But beyond the failure of the legislation, there's the collateral damage as outlined in the CNN piece I posted. 

I'm not saying BBB would have passed had Biden not announced the framework of an agreement, but I think announcing the framework for the agreement was a bad move. Someone got their wires crossed somewhere, and I have a hard time believing the whole thing boils down to Manchin being a snake and blind-siding everyone. That's a WH cop-out. 

I think this failure is at least partly due to Biden's mismanagement of the whole situation.  

I think we are disagreeing on what the "failure" is here. To me, not passing BBB is the failure, and I have a hard time seeing how that's anyone's fault besides Manchin. I think you're saying the negative publicity is the failure? I mean, sure, I suppose it would have been possible to end up exactly where we are now but without all the accusations of broken trust etc, but to me that's not a different outcome in any meaningful way. I'm of the opinion that what gets done matters, not what gets said.


OK fair enough...but it's no secret that the Dems' margin in the Senate is razor-thin and a couple of Ds aren't all-in...so Biden's gotta know what he has to work with and craft legislation that will pass on the Senate he has, not the Senate he'd like to have.  


Smedley said:

There's the failure of the legislation which may or may not be Manchin's "fault" depending on whether you believe he went back on his word (the WH story) or if he never was signed on in the first place (which is what I believe).

Do you believe he took part in weeks of talks? If so, what do you think of a negotiating position that both begins and ends with the same number? Or do you think, instead, it was less a negotiation and more like weeks of Manchin repeating “$1.5 trillion, $1.5 trillion”?


Smedley said:

OK fair enough...but it's no secret that the Dems' margin in the Senate is razor-thin and a couple of Ds aren't all-in...so Biden's gotta know what he has to work with and craft legislation that will pass on the Senate he has, not the Senate he'd like to have.  

I agree with that, but I actually don't think Biden was wrong to take a big swing here. Manchin really does seem to have been a one-person obstacle here (though Sinema's been quiet lately -- who knows what she's thinking) , and believing it would be possible to win him over doesn't seem crazy. So if what you're arguing is that the line Manchin laid down in July should have always been taken as unmovable, I don't agree with that. Was there some alternate negotiating strategy that could have yielded better results? That I don't know, but if there was, it's not obvious to me.


DaveSchmidt said:

Smedley said:

There's the failure of the legislation which may or may not be Manchin's "fault" depending on whether you believe he went back on his word (the WH story) or if he never was signed on in the first place (which is what I believe).

Do you believe he took part in weeks of talks? If so, what do you think of a negotiating position that both begins and ends with the same number? Or do you think, instead, it was less a negotiation and more like weeks of Manchin repeating “$1.5 trillion, $1.5 trillion”?

Even if it was -- so what? That was his position, right or wrong. So why move forward with> $1.5tln if that was doomed to fail?


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