Aftermath - the 2021 elections

What was it that the preface to Lyrical Ballads called the spontaneous overflow of powerful citations?


I'm just bummed that there's apparently some inner circle, and no one has ever invited me to the meetings. 

Next thing you're going to tell me they've been serving refreshments. 


tjohn,

when you've got Carville AND Dowd coming down on the same side, you can be 200% sure they're wrong.


drummerboy said:

tjohn,

when you've got Carville AND Dowd coming down on the same side, you can be 200% sure they're wrong.

 Keep telling yourself that.


two more elite Dem strategists join the Carville/Dowd tsunami

Mark Penn (former Trump advisor) and Andrew Stein (Trump supporter)


drummerboy said:

two more elite Dem strategists join the Carville/Dowd tsunami

Mark Penn (former Trump advisor) and Andrew Stein (Trump supporter)

 Why do you think Biden won the primary rather than Bernie or Warren?


jimmurphy said:

drummerboy said:

two more elite Dem strategists join the Carville/Dowd tsunami

Mark Penn (former Trump advisor) and Andrew Stein (Trump supporter)

 Why do you think Biden won the primary rather than Bernie or Warren?

 But they're saying Biden needs to move to the right. Isn't he centrist enough already?


drummerboy said:

 But they're saying Biden needs to move to the right. Isn't he centrist enough already?

The Democrats need to counter the Republican narrative and they need to decide where they need to be on the political spectrum.  If the electorate says he needs to move right, then that is the answer.


Countering a narrative, as I posted earlier, is one thing. Moving around on the political spectrum is quite another.

Exactly how are they supposed to accomplish that movement without disrupting the Democratic base? And why should they, since the Republican narrative is completely based on b.s.?

As I asked earlier, should they support policies that are less popular? Like what?


drummerboy said:

jimmurphy said:

drummerboy said:

two more elite Dem strategists join the Carville/Dowd tsunami

Mark Penn (former Trump advisor) and Andrew Stein (Trump supporter)

 Why do you think Biden won the primary rather than Bernie or Warren?

 But they're saying Biden needs to move to the right. Isn't he centrist enough already?

 Historically yes, but his administration so far has been lefter than many people expected. 


jimmurphy said:

drummerboy said:

two more elite Dem strategists join the Carville/Dowd tsunami

Mark Penn (former Trump advisor) and Andrew Stein (Trump supporter)

 Why do you think Biden won the primary rather than Bernie or Warren?

 Plus Bernie and Warren were both much stronger candidates than Biden in terms of energy, persuasiveness, messaging etc. And they still lost.  


drummerboy said:

 But they're saying Biden needs to move to the right. Isn't he centrist enough already?

 If only Biden had moved to the right, Delta would've fizzled and the Port of Los Angeles would tearing through its backlog.


GOP has found their message and is sticking to it. Cry victimization of the white race while gerrymandering minorities into irrelevance.

Then obstruction in Congress. 

Let the different ends of the Democratic spectrum fight amongst themselves. 


mrincredible said:

GOP has found their message and is sticking to it. Cry victimization of the white race while gerrymandering minorities into irrelevance.

Then obstruction in Congress. 

Let the different ends of the Democratic spectrum fight amongst themselves. 

The victimization shtick is highly effective.  How do we counter it?  How do you counter the Critical Race Theory line of crap when, I highly doubt that CRT is being taught in most schools.  When my daughter took APUSH, the teacher used a book by Howard Zinn.  He wasn't teaching CRT, but you can be sure that teachings from Zinn would give the white victims crowd a serious case of the vapors.  And Zinn is merely telling the truth.


tjohn said:

The victimization shtick is highly effective.  How do we counter it?  How do you counter the Critical Race Theory line of crap when, I highly doubt that CRT is being taught in most schools.  When my daughter took APUSH, the teacher used a book by Howard Zinn.  He wasn't teaching CRT, but you can be sure that teachings from Zinn would give the white victims crowd a serious case of the vapors.  And Zinn is merely telling the truth.

 While I'm less convinced of how much of an effect any of this political branding has (like jimmurpy, I'm much more of the "it's the economy" school of thought), I do think it has some effect on the margins, and in a highly polarized political environment featuring close races, that can matter.

One thing that's long bugged me with Democratic branding is I wish they'd switch to an approach that assumes that mult-racial, multi-cultural, democratic America is the norm and that it's the Republicans who are the radicals. Shrug off all talk about CRT. Instead talk up how amazing it is that we have an education system based on ordinary citizens serving as teachers and on school boards and paint Republicans as radicals pushing exclusionary ideologies that erase millions of Americans from our history. Talk about how ordinary voters want and expect decency and civility while Republicans are assaulting educators and disrupting public meetings and shouting and starting fights.


PVW said:

 While I'm less convinced of how much of an effect any of this political branding has (like jimmurpy, I'm much more of the "it's the economy" school of thought), I do think it has some effect on the margins, and in a highly polarized political environment featuring close races, that can matter.

One thing that's long bugged me with Democratic branding is I wish they'd switch to an approach that assumes that mult-racial, multi-cultural, democratic America is the norm and that it's the Republicans who are the radicals. Shrug off all talk about CRT. Instead talk up how amazing it is that we have an education system based on ordinary citizens serving as teachers and on school boards and paint Republicans as radicals pushing exclusionary ideologies that erase millions of Americans from our history. Talk about how ordinary voters want and expect decency and civility while Republicans are assaulting educators and disrupting public meetings and shouting and starting fights.

The CRT whine fuels the belief that schools are focusing too much on "the liberal agenda" and not enough the 3 R's.  That is what, I think, is damaging.


I want to get to a place where talking about race and slavery isn't the "liberal agenda," it's just the agenda.


“I dream of a world where chickens can cross the road without having their motives questioned.”


Smedley said:

drummerboy said:

jimmurphy said:

drummerboy said:

two more elite Dem strategists join the Carville/Dowd tsunami

Mark Penn (former Trump advisor) and Andrew Stein (Trump supporter)

 Why do you think Biden won the primary rather than Bernie or Warren?

 But they're saying Biden needs to move to the right. Isn't he centrist enough already?

 Historically yes, but his administration so far has been lefter than many people expected. 

 no its not. He's actually trying to do pretty much exactly what he ran on.


Well that would be news to many independent voters.  

  • Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

(from Oct 23) The most recent Gallup poll, published on Friday, showed President Biden currently has a 34 per cent approval rating among Independents, almost halving his approval rating among the same group a month after he took office.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-approval-rating-independents-poll-b1944099.html


Smedley said:

Well that would be news to many independent voters.  

  • Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

(from Oct 23) The most recent Gallup poll, published on Friday, showed President Biden currently has a 34 per cent approval rating among Independents, almost halving his approval rating among the same group a month after he took office.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-approval-rating-independents-poll-b1944099.html

 If everything under the control of Congress and the WH was exactly the same -- same bills passed, on the same timeline, with the same drama and delays -- but there had been no delta surge, and there was no bullwhip effect -driven inflation -- do you think those poll numbers would look better, worse, or about the same?


Smedley said:

Well that would be news to many independent voters.  

  • Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

(from Oct 23) The most recent Gallup poll, published on Friday, showed President Biden currently has a 34 per cent approval rating among Independents, almost halving his approval rating among the same group a month after he took office.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-approval-rating-independents-poll-b1944099.html

 what does a satisfaction poll have to do with whether he's governing to the left of what he ran on?

really, you should lay off the polls. They tell you far less than you think they do.


Smedley said:

Well that would be news to many independent voters.  

  • Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

(from Oct 23) The most recent Gallup poll, published on Friday, showed President Biden currently has a 34 per cent approval rating among Independents, almost halving his approval rating among the same group a month after he took office.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-approval-rating-independents-poll-b1944099.html

I wonder wtf people expected to happen given that Biden was given a split Senate with 1 or 2 members who are barely Democrats.  The concerning trend in our politics is the apparent belief that the President alone can get things done.  


PVW said:

Smedley said:

Well that would be news to many independent voters.  

  • Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

(from Oct 23) The most recent Gallup poll, published on Friday, showed President Biden currently has a 34 per cent approval rating among Independents, almost halving his approval rating among the same group a month after he took office.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-approval-rating-independents-poll-b1944099.html

 If everything under the control of Congress and the WH was exactly the same -- same bills passed, on the same timeline, with the same drama and delays -- but there had been no delta surge, and there was no bullwhip effect -driven inflation -- do you think those poll numbers would look better, worse, or about the same?

Better, but only marginally. If Biden's underwater 8-10 points now, maybe that gap would be 6-7 points.

I think the main underlying issues are (in no particular order), (1) Trump receding from memory (at least somewhat and at least temporarily), which means many people who voted for Biden mostly because "orange man bad" (including myself) don't have that as reason to like Biden anymore; (2) general questions about Biden's competence and ability to do the job; and (3) perceptions of a leftward lurch, for example when Biden went along with the progressive caucus and put BBB in front of infrastructure (we saw how that worked out).   


Smedley said:

PVW said:

Smedley said:

Well that would be news to many independent voters.  

  • Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

(from Oct 23) The most recent Gallup poll, published on Friday, showed President Biden currently has a 34 per cent approval rating among Independents, almost halving his approval rating among the same group a month after he took office.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-approval-rating-independents-poll-b1944099.html

 If everything under the control of Congress and the WH was exactly the same -- same bills passed, on the same timeline, with the same drama and delays -- but there had been no delta surge, and there was no bullwhip effect -driven inflation -- do you think those poll numbers would look better, worse, or about the same?

Better, but only marginally. If Biden's underwater 8-10 points now, maybe that gap would be 6-7 points.

I think the main underlying issues are (in no particular order), (1) Trump receding from memory (at least somewhat and at least temporarily), which means many people who voted for Biden mostly because "orange man bad" (including myself) don't have that as reason to like Biden anymore; (2) general questions about Biden's competence and ability to do the job; and (3) perceptions of a leftward lurch, for example when Biden went along with the progressive caucus and put BBB in front of infrastructure (we saw how that worked out).   

 yeah, like the average voter even has a clue about the machinations regarding BBB.

Your problem is that you project your own thoughts about Biden onto the poll results.

It doesn't work that way.


First I should lay off the polls. Now my problem is projecting my own thoughts.

okay


Smedley said:

First I should lay off the polls. Now my problem is projecting my own thoughts.

okay

 Do you think those are mutually exclusive? Both are true.


Smedley said:

Better, but only marginally. If Biden's underwater 8-10 points now, maybe that gap would be 6-7 points.

I think the main underlying issues are (in no particular order), (1) Trump receding from memory (at least somewhat and at least temporarily), which means many people who voted for Biden mostly because "orange man bad" (including myself) don't have that as reason to like Biden anymore; (2) general questions about Biden's competence and ability to do the job; and (3) perceptions of a leftward lurch, for example when Biden went along with the progressive caucus and put BBB in front of infrastructure (we saw how that worked out).   

 Thanks, that's a straightforward response. We definitely disagree, though. I think Biden would be polling much higher, especially among independents. I suppose my thesis can be put this way: "Number of voters who actively watch CNN, FOX, and comment about politics on twitter < number of voters needed to move public opinion polls by more than a few points"


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