Why did mfpark get more snow than we did?

The models are giving them headaches over at the NWS this morning.  It is a real headscratcher. There is no consistency between the models or from run to run.

What I can say:

1)  Water will probably fall from the sky in some form, most likely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.  More water will fall from sky south and east of NYC than here.

2)  It will not be a lot, in water terms, but it is uncertain exactly how much, with QPF forecasts ranging from .025" to 1.00" (that is a large spread).

3)  It is unlikely to fall as all snow.  It is more likely to fall as a mix of rain and snow, changing over time.

4)  If any of it falls as snow, we are looking at a forecast range right now of 1 - 6" which is in statistical terms not much better than throwing darts.

5)  This is not a blizzard, and it is very very unlikely to even be much of a snowstorm.

6)  Timing of rain to snow, or snow to rain, or freezing rain if that even happens, is not knowable at this time.

7)  With the variations between the models and between runs, even if everything came together on the next set of runs, which it won't, I would not be more confident in making a forecast.

So based on all that, I am going to wait another 24 hours to update.  There is no practical value in any update in a shorter time frame as it will take at least 12 hours of consistent runs to gain any certainty on this thing.

Any forecaster claiming to have any fix on the weather this weekend is blowing smoke.



Ha! Thank you, Max, as always!  This Winter is crazy.


While there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast, and a fairly high "bust" potential for this system, since the potential also exists for 4" - 6" and so the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch.

Key facts:

-- Timing is overnight Saturday, ending early Sunday morning

--  Most likely precipitation form is snow

--  Amount of snow still very speculative, from 1" to 7"

--  Although forecast is currently calling for 4" - 6" there is still only a 50/50 chance of 4" or more.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Frpm the NWS:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
449 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179-
161630-
/O.COR.KOKX.WS.A.0004.180218T0000Z-180218T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
449 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...New York City, Southern Connecticut, Northeast New
  Jersey, Long Island, and Most of the Lower Hudson Valley.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.


My major area of uncertainty is whether to bother to shovel whatever accumulates or wait for the rain on Monday to take care of it.  The old "G-d put it there and G-d can take it away" approach.


4, 5, 6 inches by Tuesday all gone anyway so no big deal. Anyway glad it is a Saturday night with a 3 day weekend. Maybe just shovel sidewalk and let the warm weather take care of the rest.  


when is the next update, max? My parents are supposed to fly to Puerto Rico for a cruise Sunday morning and I want to switch them to a Sat am flight but right now United still doesn't have the waiver.  I think it has to go to the level of "warning" rather than "watch".


please just make it go away



oots said:

please just make it go away

It will by sometime in July


All of this advance precision info we now get has made us soft and neurotic.

It's the second half of February already, its going to be a middling snow total at worst, and its going to get quite warm very quickly after the snow.

Nothing to get upset about here.


But The Weather Channel has already named it.  It is a freaking NAMED storm!  It is the end of the world as we know it!!!@!

bub said:

All of this advance precision info we now get has made us soft and neurotic.

It's the second half of February already, its going to be a middling snow total at worst, and its going to get quite warm very quickly after the snow.

Nothing to get upset about here.



So that means there will be no milk , eggs or bread on the shelves.



conandrob240 said:

when is the next update, max? My parents are supposed to fly to Puerto Rico for a cruise Sunday morning and I want to switch them to a Sat am flight but right now United still doesn't have the waiver.  I think it has to go to the level of "warning" rather than "watch".

You know I don't try to forecast airplanes, especially United!  smile

That said, this is delays, not cancellations, I suspect.  It is localized, and moves through pretty fast, so I would not worry too much.  The chance of a warning level snowfall is not great.


Always been puzzled by the insane rush to clear the shelves of milk.  If you really think there's going to be cataclysmic, infrastructure-paralyzing snow event,  it makes sense to stock up on water.

And by the way, even after the worst snow storm, what's the longest the supply chain to the supermarkets has ever been interrupted?  Not long, I think.



mfpark said:

But The Weather Channel has already named it.  It is a freaking NAMED storm!  It is the end of the world as we know it!!!@!

http://dawnfrenchvideos.com/vicar-of-dibley/jim-and-owen-argue-over-the-great-storm/


Not asking you to. I was asking if you see this being upped to “warning” vs “watch”. 

Or at least when the NWS update would be


max_weisenfeld said:



conandrob240 said:

when is the next update, max? My parents are supposed to fly to Puerto Rico for a cruise Sunday morning and I want to switch them to a Sat am flight but right now United still doesn't have the waiver.  I think it has to go to the level of "warning" rather than "watch".

You know I don't try to forecast airplanes, especially United!  smile


That said, this is delays, not cancellations, I suspect.  It is localized, and moves through pretty fast, so I would not worry too much.  The chance of a warning level snowfall is not great.




LOST said:



mfpark said:

But The Weather Channel has already named it.  It is a freaking NAMED storm!  It is the end of the world as we know it!!!@!

http://dawnfrenchvideos.com/vicar-of-dibley/jim-and-owen-argue-over-the-great-storm/

This is why I won't watch the weather channel. What's next, named cold snaps? Dry spells? "Dry Spell Florence Update: No Rain In Eight Days!" 


It's drizzling!!!! Right now! 


"Flash Alert: Winter Shower Aaron..."



SNOMG! The Flake Plague's coming! The Flake Plague's coming!


I don't know why everyone gets so upset at naming winter storms. It makes them easy to talk about. Nothing more.



drummerboy said:

I don't know why everyone gets so upset at naming winter storms. It makes them easy to talk about. Nothing more.

I don't have cable so i don't get the memos.



drummerboy said:

I don't know why everyone gets so upset at naming winter storms. It makes them easy to talk about. Nothing more.

Because, unlike hurricanes, they are not discrete storms but complex systems.  There is no standard or criteria with which to define them.  At what point does what part of this system become Storm Fred?   Is it Storm Fred now, even though it is in three parts separated by thousands of miles?  If not, which part is Fred?  Or is one part Fred's leg, and another Fred's butt, and whem they come together with Fred's tits do they become an official winter storm? The concept is not science but marketing.  There is enough hoo-doo and pseudo-science in commercial weather reporting without them adding a fake veneer of authority they do not have.


I'll grant you all of that. Except there is some kind of weather system that could affect us in a significant way. It's a thing - by itself. So rather than call it a thing, give it a name. Then we're all on the same page.

Why is the system for naming hurricanes the only valid way for naming weather systems?

I just don't get the outrage.


max_weisenfeld said:



drummerboy said:

I don't know why everyone gets so upset at naming winter storms. It makes them easy to talk about. Nothing more.

Because, unlike hurricanes, they are not discrete storms but complex systems.  There is no standard or criteria with which to define them.  At what point does what part of this system become Storm Fred?   Is it Storm Fred now, even though it is in three parts separated by thousands of miles?  If not, which part is Fred?  Or is one part Fred's leg, and another Fred's butt, and whem they come together with Fred's tits do they become an official winter storm? The concept is not science but marketing.  There is enough hoo-doo and pseudo-science in commercial weather reporting without them adding a fake veneer of authority they do not have.



Update:  nothing happening with the models is giving me any more confidence in the forecast.  OTOH, nothing is inspiring me to change it, either.  So, snow overnight Saturday, ending early Sunday.  1" - 6"


Because the confusion it causes undermines confidence in the real forecast by cheapening value of a 'named storm'


When every named storm is potentially a threat to life and property, people know that hearing a named storm is coming is something to take seriously.  But naming systems like this, that hardly even qualify as a storm at all is crying wolf.  Sooner or later people will stop taking named storms seriously, and people will die.


drummerboy said:

I'll grant you all of that. Except there is some kind of weather system that could affect us in a significant way. It's a thing - by itself. So rather than call it a thing, give it a name. Then we're all on the same page.

Why is the system for naming hurricanes the only valid way for naming weather systems?

I just don't get the outrage.



A hurricane is a discrete thing. You can look at a satellite photo a week in advance and see it coming. These winter storms are a combination of different trends and measurements -- a band of low pressure here, a zone of high humidity there, a cold front coming from over that way -- that may or may not come together and become "Fred" at all. 


this could make for an interesting discussion, but not here.


Overnight, models have consolidated on a wetter, and colder, solution; the possibly higher precipitation rates make a colder solution more likely, meaning it is more likely that the precipitation will be mostly snow.

This is still a fast-moving storm.  The most likely timing for snow is 7:00 pm to 4:00 am, with the bulk of the snow likely before 2:00 am.  There is a possibility of fairly wide local variations in total snowfall.

Total snowfall range between 4" - 7" for our area.

As a result, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
332 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>073-078-079-176-177-
171645-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.180218T0000Z-180218T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0004.180217T2200Z-180218T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-
332 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Southern Connecticut, Northeast New Jersey, Northern New
  York City and Long Island and most of the Lower Hudson Valley.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of
Transportation information services for the latest road
conditions.



Max - will you be posting throughout the day?  I have friends who are supposed to come from Montclair to MW around 6pm - going back around 10:30 and they are nervous about forecast.  Sounds like it might start at 7pm 


radar at 4:20. It's like we're in a protective bubble, as the rest of the area gets engulfed


In order to add a comment – you must Join this community – Click here to do so.

Sponsored Business

Find Business

Advertise here!