Winter Storm WARNING Sunday Night Mar 3 (was: Snow, Sleet, and Rain this Weekend Likely Mar 1 - 4)

max_weisenfeld

Light snow this morning (3/1) tapering off around 7:00.  Less travelled roads may be a little slick.

There will be several small precipitation events through Monday.  

The next round comes tonight, most likely after 9:00.  Starts as snow, then mixed snow and sleet.  Ending by daybreak Saturday, total of maybe an inch or two of snow and sleet.

The last round of this cycle will be Sunday evening and night.  The profile on this one could change but as of now it should start out as rain but change over to snow in the early hours of Monday morning, ending mid morning with an inch or two of accumulation.


mrincredible

Delayed opening today.

It was supposed to be a half day today for conferences at the elementaries but now it will be regular dismissal time.


Klinker
mrincredible said:
Delayed opening today.
It was supposed to be a half day today for conferences at the elementaries but now it will be regular dismissal time.

 Thank god we were all saved the horrors of having to drive through a quarter of an inch of snow.  Another potential Donner Party averted.


bub

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max_weisenfeld

I am beginning to think no one has a freaking idea what is happening tonight.

There are two issues with forecasting tonight's precipitation. One is the amount of liquid precipitation could be anywhere from 0.25" to an inch. This would only be a curiosity except that the rain/snow line is going to wander across the region like a drunken sailor and the models do not agree on the path it is going to take. This means that there is an unworkable range of snowfall prediction -- across the various NWS forecast products the range is 2 - 7 inches!

Their best guess is 3 - 4" here with warming above freezing by morning leading to a possible drizzly miserable day. I could spend the rest of the night looking at this and not come up with a better answer so I am going to leave it there.

I do not think there is any significant chance of icing or freezing rain.

NWS Winter Weather Advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected, with the higher amounts expected farther away from the Atlantic coast.

* WHERE...New York City and adjacent portions of northeast New Jersey south of Interstate 80.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.



conandrob240

ugh. I wish I would have paid attention to this so I could have gotten the things I’d want to eat tomorrow and not have to leave the house.


drummerboy

I have avocados. I'm all set.


max_weisenfeld

Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night (3/3) as the forecast worsens.

This morning (Saturday) the snow will end before 9:00, tapering off into a possible drizzle for a few hours as the temps warm.  

Sunday's storm track is still uncertain, affecting the start time, which right now looks to be between early evening and midnight.  At this time the most likely scenario would have light rain Sunday early evening, changing over to snow and then quickly to heavy snow overnight.  Snow amount will depend on how fast this changeover occurs and also whether bands of heavy snow develop.  This means there is a potential upside to the snow forecast.  The models range from 1 - 3" (which I would discount) to 4 - 6" with upside potential, which could lead the WS Watch being upgraded to a Warning.

My best guess for a Sunday night snowfall at this time is 4 - 6" but I believe there is potential for more.

Snow ends early Monday morning.  

Warm temps this afternoon and Sunday will probably not be enough to melt this morning's snow, which could re-freeze overnight Saturday and again as the storm starts up Sunday.


From the NWS:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
341 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet expected. Total accumulations of 2 to
  3 inches today. Moderate snow Sunday night into Monday morning
  with snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Hudson, Western Essex, Eastern Essex, Western Union
  and Eastern Union Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until noon EST today.
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon through
  Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.



drummerboy

well, I guess we were due. Been an easy winter so far.


mrincredible

So a pretty good chance of a Kranky Klinker on Monday morning.  smile 

It sounds like a good idea to get the snow shovelled this morning before it gets too wet and slushy. And make sure everything is good and cleaned up before tonight to avoid some nasty ice patches on our walks.


drummerboy

so, we got 3 inches or so today and we might get another 6 Sunday?

That's uh, .3...6...... carry the 7....

9 inches!


mrincredible

I feel like this is the third year in a row when we didn't get any significant snowfall until March.


tomcat

I adamantly refuse to use 4 letter words starting with the letter 'S'.

Will someone please clean the fluffy rain off my sidewalk?


bub

Easy shoveling this a.m., plus its getting into the high 30s later.  I'm not willing to call 3 to 6 tomorrow a Big One.  


rhw

Wonderful, beautiful SOMA morning. Saw lots of kids building snowmen and a couple of obligatory snowball fights. Way to go!


Klinker
mrincredible said:
So a pretty good chance of a Kranky Klinker on Monday morning.  smile 
It sounds like a good idea to get the snow shovelled this morning before it gets too wet and slushy. And make sure everything is good and cleaned up before tonight to avoid some nasty ice patches on our walks.

 I now want to change my official handle to Kranky Klinker.


Klinker
bub said:
Easy shoveling this a.m., plus its getting into the high 30s later.  I'm not willing to call 3 to 6 tomorrow a Big One.  

 Yeah, it was like shoveling goose down. No problems.


conandrob240

we got around 5” in Westfield. Shoveled at around 9am and glad we did because it was already starting to get wet and heavy. 


mrincredible

I just came in from snowblowing and shovelling. It's starting to get slushy and pack down so if you haven't started yet you may want to.



EricBurbank

My neighbor did several of the sidewalks on the block  early this morning

with his snowblower.  So I figured I had time to shovel my driveway, especially after reading how light and fluffy the snow was.  Against my better judgement I waited until 1:30 to start shoveling my 120' driveway, half of which fits 2 cars side by side.  What a mistake!!!  The snow/slush was unbelievably heavy.  I just finished, and it now looks like it would have melted on its own.  I couldn't take the chance with more snow coming tomorrow night.  My son has a Dr appointment on Tuesday and his wheelchair does not drive well in an inch of snow, nevermind 4-6" of snow.


I think shoveling my deck is probably the worst.  Because it is wood the snow accumulates quicker and deeper.  I have to shovel the whole deck (which is also a large area) so my son can get from the back door to the lift, then the back walkway to the driveway.


Okay, I am now done bit**ing.  Sorry, just needed to vent.


RobertRoe

From Bob Roe:  Vent all you want Eric.  We are your friends.  


drummerboy

I have a physics question:

If you have 5 inches of light fluffy slow, how does that get any heavier, per square foot, if it turns to packed snow or slush?

It's still the same amount of water, right?


FilmCarp

I think because people shovel by cubic foot.  We are used to a certain amount on the shovel before we lift it, and if we do it when the shovel is half as full we think we are doing twice the work.


sprout

Agreed -- I think it's a psychological/size weight difference, not an actual total weight difference of the water.

That said, my neighbor who shoveled early this morning has a nice dry surface now, while my afternoon shoveling has left a thin water/slush lining on all surfaces that's likely to ice up tonight. (But maybe will evaporate tomorrow).

ETA: Just in time for the Sunday night-Monday precipitation.


Klinker
drummerboy said:
I have a physics question:
If you have 5 inches of light fluffy slow, how does that get any heavier, per square foot, if it turns to packed snow or slush?
It's still the same amount of water, right?

 If its on a hill, it can get saturated with runoff from up higher.  This happens with our driveway.


joan_crystal
drummerboy said:
I have a physics question:
If you have 5 inches of light fluffy slow, how does that get any heavier, per square foot, if it turns to packed snow or slush?
It's still the same amount of water, right?

 Yes and no.  When you are lifting light, fluffy snow, a fair amount of what you have on the shovel is air.  As the snow compacts, you have more snow and less air on you shovel and therefore more weight. 


drummerboy
joan_crystal said:


drummerboy said:
I have a physics question:
If you have 5 inches of light fluffy slow, how does that get any heavier, per square foot, if it turns to packed snow or slush?
It's still the same amount of water, right?
 Yes and no.  When you are lifting light, fluffy snow, a fair amount of what you have on the shovel is air.  As the snow compacts, you have more snow and less air on you shovel and therefore more weight. 

 not if you put the same amount of area on the shovel. If you consistently shovel one foot by one foot, say, there is no difference in the weight. It's just a change in volume.


EricBurbank

Thanks Bob and Jeff.



drummerboy said:
I have a physics question:
If you have 5 inches of light fluffy slow, how does that get any heavier, per square foot, if it turns to packed snow or slush?
It's still the same amount of water, right?

 No.  I believe it has to do with the liquid ratio of the snow.  We always went with the 10:1 ratio (not sure I am correct but that's what I did), meaning for every 10 inches of snow is equal to 1 inch of water.  That is not always the case, sometimes it is a 20:1 ratio and other times it is less, like a 5:1 ratio.  The moisture level changes based on the air temp and maybe even the surface temps.  So if it is warm out you will see less snow but more water.


Max, am I even close to being right?  I know you can explain it better than me.



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