Snow predicted for Thursday.

No, it's not.  At least not by the NWS.  

There is a chance of wintery mix here.  Just a chance.  Accumulating winter precipitation, if it occurs, much more likely to be north and west.

The Euro, which is the most aggressive model, has a negligible amount of snow mixed in with a fairly significant amount of rain. 

Don't get me wrong, has the potential to be a shirty day, weather wise.  Just not a snowstorm.


The end of the week has some real potential for accumulating snowfall. ECMWF ensemble mean is sitting around 3ish inches in our area. Not ready to totally buy into it yet.


what exactly does “end of the week” mean? Potential timing?


conandrob240 said:
what exactly does “end of the week” mean? Potential timing?

 Thursday through Friday


all day/night Friday or still mostly Thursday ending early Friday?


conandrob240 said:
all day/night Friday or still mostly Thursday ending early Friday?

Hard to say right now. A tiny shift could make a big difference in terms of timing/if we get snow at all.


okay. Have a Friday flight. Who would have thought I’d need to worry about snow delays in November. Ugh


Well, WxNut is the expert, so I will defer, but I think the middle layers are too warm, and wintery mix is the most likely result.


max_weisenfeld said:
Well, WxNut is the expert, so I will defer, but I think the middle layers are too warm, and wintery mix is the most likely result.

Depends on your choice of model. GFS supports a wintry mix. The issue is the difference will be based upon model physics, so it’s a little tough to know for sure.


Starting an official thread.


You guys will make me choose sides

Ron Carter


FWIW, even the regulars over on the weenie boards are discounting this one.


while I’m leaning towards a lower magnitude event, I’m not ready to discount anything yet. 


oooh, the “weather wars”- this might be fun!


conandrob240 said:
oooh, the “weather wars”- this might be fun!

Ha! No wars here, I think Max is likely right in his analysis. Temperature profiles are likely a little marginal for really heavy accumulating snow. But it’s hard to totally ignore snow maps like that. It’s likely the tail of the distribution though.


WxNut2.0 said:
while I’m leaning towards a lower magnitude event, I’m not ready to discount anything yet. 

 Spoken like a scientist.


Thanks  for the always useful information.  Tomorrow We have to drive to the doggie oncologist in Red Bank. Please tell my husband to allot extra time. 


Jerseyperson said:
Thanks  for the always useful information.  Tomorrow We have to drive to the doggie oncologist in Red Bank. Please tell my husband to allot extra time. 

Red Bank may not get snow. But I'd still allot extra time.



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