Severe Weather threat for Tues 6/23

Just saw this on Facebook - any thoughts from our weather guys?

**SHARE NOW TO ALERT FRIENDS AND FAMILY***

In the history of my criteria (which is pretty young) I have never gotten to a 4 on the Severe Impact Index scale. The ingredients are here and the storms will be particularly dangerous and strong.

**Timing: Storms should effect our area around 1-8pm. The early the more north you are later the more south you are.***

Places in the red should expected to see storms rolling through with damaging winds that may be in excess of 65 mph. Trees may knock out power so be prepared and charge your electronics to stay ahead of the storms. Hail is another threat and hail of one inch in diameter may fall and damage homes and cars. The tornado risk is low but there is a chance a storm could spin one up so stay tuned if any tornado warnings pop up and be prepared to take shelter if you are places in a tornado warning.

Stay safe tomorrow and sorry that this severe weather outbreak is occurring on some of you High School Graduations! I hope your school makes the right choice on whether to post-pone or move it inside if a storm is coming. Remember share this post to friends and family to alert them on the severe threat.

NWS has this:

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/... 
departing mesoscale convective system across New England will complicate forecast some 
for Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front...as mostly cloudy 
skies could be present for the first part of the day...in addition 
to a few lingering showers/T-storms early as the warm front lifts 
north. By late morning...expect breaks in clouds and gusty SW flow 
to push temperatures to around or just above 90 in NYC...lower 90s across 
NE New Jersey and middle to upper 80s elsewhere. Heat indices will peak 
around 95 in NYC and in the upper 90s in NE New Jersey...and around 90 
elsewhere. This will generate moderate instability ahead of the 
cold front...with model forecast convective available potential energy of near or just above 2000 j/kg 
especially just inland. After a several hour break middle day...the 
front will begin to touch off scattered showers/T-storms which 
will progress from northwest to southeast across the region beginning inland 
during the early-middle afternoon. Given the instability in place and 
40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear forecast by the models...severe T-storms 
are forecast...with the Storm Prediction Center placing the entire 
region in a slight risk. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled 
out...damaging winds and perhaps some large hail appear to be the 
main threats. 

Cold front and associated T-storms will push southeast of the region during 
the early evening hours Tuesday with clearing behind the front. A 
drier airmass will be ushered into the region as well with 
lowering humidity. 

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches on 
Tuesday.     

Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/severe-storms-to-blast-philly/49093541

There is a good chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, and a very slight chance they will be severe in our area. Not too worried, but keeping an eye on it.

This is very much a short-term thing. Very hard to call it more than an hour or two out, and possibly less. With the low probability of severe weather here, I would just keep the radio on in case of alerts.

Accuweather, as usual, over-hype it.

I do not know whose map that is in Jamie's OP, but note that he talks about a level 4 (on his own personal scale) but we are not in a level 4 zone on his map, but level 3.

Here's the NWS Storm Prediction Center's map:

Looks like it was tweeted out by NJ Weather Center (who knows who they are- they don't look very reputable):

http://njweathercenter.weebly.com/

The NWS has upgraded the severe thunderstorm risk to "enhanced." See the graphic below:

The weather will come in two waves, with the severity of this afternoon's storms dependent to a fair extent on what happens after this morning's storms pass. The first line of storms is developing in central PA now, and will arrive mid-morning. I do not expect these to be severe, but more like regular thunderstorms, with some wind and of course lightning. After they pass, if the sky clears and it gets hot, the storms that come with this afternoon's cold front could be, as the NWS says, "enhanced."