There is a FLOOD WARNING until 2:30 pm, then WATCH for today, Friday 12/21

max_weisenfeld

Thursday through Saturday, actually.

While there is zero chance of snow, there is a possibility of thunderstorms (especially Friday) and they could hold some gusty winds.  NWS right now is predicting between 1.5" and 2.5" of rain from Thurs through Sat morning, but if those t-storms show up it could be more.

With the ground still saturated, there is the potential for road ponding and small stream flooding.

Right now, the models are showing the heaviest rains Friday morning, but that is very much subject to change.


drummerboy

ick. The lawn has been a swamp for weeks now.

Wonder how this year stacks up in terms of rainfall?

I'm driving across PA to OH on Friday afternoon. Will it be bad going west too? Over Thanksgiving weekend I drove two hours in driving rain coming home from MA. It's very tiring.


yahooyahoo

How much rain did we get on Sunday by comparison?


max_weisenfeld
yahooyahoo said:
How much rain did we get on Sunday by comparison?

 Between Saturday and Sunday, 1.85"


max_weisenfeld
drummerboy said:
ick. The lawn has been a swamp for weeks now.

Wonder how this year stacks up in terms of rainfall?
I'm driving across PA to OH on Friday afternoon. Will it be bad going west too? Over Thanksgiving weekend I drove two hours in driving rain coming home from MA. It's very tiring.

 Top ten of all time.  Has a shot at top five, but no shot at wettest of all time.

Depending on your route, you will drive out of it eventually, sooner on 80 than 78/tpk.


max_weisenfeld

There is a FLOOD WATCH for tomorrow night and all of Friday 12/19-20.

The NWS has increased the rainfall forecast a bit, with total rainfall projected to be between 2 - 4" with the possibility of higher amounts if thunderstorms develop. With the ground saturated, the possibility of FLOODING (not just flash floods, but low-lying areas inundated for some significant time and some minor, river-over-the-banks flooding) is considered significant. See details in comments below.

There is also a possibility to winds of 20 - 30 mph, with some gusting if those thunderstorms happen. With the leaves off the trees, this is considered a lower risk event in terms of falling lumber; however, with the ground saturated the possibility of a tree coming down cannot be ruled out.

Forecast: the rain will develop south and west of MAPSO and move into the area Thursday afternoon and evening, becoming heavy most likely after 8:00pm. Heavy rain could continue for over 24 hours, tapering off after midnight Friday. Except for what happens in thunderstorms, highest winds will be later, on Saturday, most likely in the afternoon, as the clouds clear and the temperature drops into the 40s.

There is no chance of this being snow.


From the NWS:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
321 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk.

* From late Thursday night through late Friday night

* An area of low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachians Thursday into Friday will result in a widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall across the region. The rain could be heavy at times, especially late Thursday night into Friday.

* The heavy rain will result in the potential for flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas, as well as minor river flooding on fast responding streams. In addition, flooding concerns could be exacerbated along the coast if the heaviest rain coincided with the Friday morning high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop.



mfpark

Heavy rain, already saturated soil, and high winds.  A perfect recipe for trees being knocked over.

Time to check the flashlights and batteries.


Smedley

Heavy rain with a chance of thunderstorms, how Christmasy!


max_weisenfeld

better than the 3 feet of snow this would be if it were colder.


mfpark
max_weisenfeld said:
better than the 3 feet of snow this would be if it were colder.

 Yup, a ton of moisture in this one.  Although colder air tends to dry it out at altitudes, right?  Still, would be measured in feet if the temp was below freezing.



max_weisenfeld

Flood Warning


National Weather Service New York NY 722 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2018

Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Bergen NJ-Essex NJ- 722 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has extended the * Flood Warning for... Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... Union County in northeastern New Jersey... Central Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...

* Until 1030 AM EST.

* At 721 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that is causing area small streams and rivers to quickly rise to flood levels. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen. An additional one to two inches of rain is expected today.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Newark, Paterson, Elizabeth, Passaic, Wayne, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Linden, Orange, Paramus, Ridgewood, Summit, Millburn, Rutherford and Harrison.


max_weisenfeld

The flood warning has been extended to 2:30 this afternoon.

While latest models and radar show the very worst of this storm trending to our east over Long Island today, we have had between 1" and 2" so far (1.6" here in eastern Maplewood) on already saturated ground.  This has caused some low lying areas to flood.  There is additional concern that further downpours are possible and that the Rahway in Millburn and Caldwell could rise and flood.

The heaviest rains could fall in the next few hours.  Then the rain tapers off from south to north late this afternoon into this evening, although the system will be capable of heavy showers until midnight.


ridski

So what we're seeing is a temporary lull and it's going to rain harder again later, right?


max_weisenfeld

That's what the radar and models show, yes.


ridski

Thanks. I'm concerned about high tide/storm surge pushing the sewage water back up the system like it did this morning. But I have a feeling we'll be okay by then.


max_weisenfeld

https://www.facebook.com/177148895647767/posts/2426853564010611/


So the worst of the rain is over, but there remains a chance of a shower throughput the rest of the day.

Long Island and coastal Connecticut getting the worst of it.  Unless we get another significant shower, we may not see 2" total.

Flood warning for small streams remains in effect here until 2:30.


oots

gonna check out paterson falls tomorrow-should be an awesome sight!




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