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DaveSchmidt said:
mfpark said:Go ahead and trade deGrom, but don’t pin everything on getting a Top 10 MLB prospect. Instead, as in the Machado and Hamels trades, deal in bulk: a franchise’s No. 4 (or so) prospect and four or five other young players you like.
Fine, but what do the Mets do to improve? Standing pat? Ugh!
why would they trade the best pitcher in the league for anything less than a top 10 prospect? Quantity doesn't make up for that. The team already has a quantity of average players.
To expand on my previous post: If I’m a Dodgers fan, I’m happy we didn’t give up one of our top three rated guys. If I’m an O’s fan, I’m happy we raised our odds of filling the many holes in a rebuild by getting a handful of promising players.
ml1 said:why would they trade the best pitcher in the league for anything less than a top 10 prospect? Quantity doesn't make up for that. The team already has a quantity of average players.
This approach makes more sense, I think, if you believe your team is only one or two players away from contending.
Also, teams just don’t trade top 10 MLB prospects anymore, do they?
I think Cabrera and Familia are goners. I think the hope is when Cespedes, Bruce and Frazier are all together in the lineup, it'll resemble something major league-like which is probably why the Mets won't do too much. On the plus side, the injuries gave them a chance to look closely at Nimmo, who has potential to be a nice player and should be the #4 outfielder. The question is whether the Mets will rotate Cespedes and Bruce at first base which will give Nimmo a chance to play more frequently. I guess they've given up on Dom Smith, right?
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:This approach makes more sense, I think, if you believe your team is only one or two players away from contending.
why would they trade the best pitcher in the league for anything less than a top 10 prospect? Quantity doesn't make up for that. The team already has a quantity of average players.
as a fan who watched the Mets trade Tom Seaver for a boatload of serviceable pieces, I can tell you it's not a path to contending again. The Mets are not one or two players from contending. But they aren't 5 or 6 replacement level players away from contending either. They need a couple of guys who are very good, not a bunch of guys who are mediocre.
DaveSchmidt said:
Also, teams just don’t trade top 10 MLB prospects anymore, do they?
no. But that's also why teams rarely trade top current MLB stars with 2.5 years of team control left. They wait until the walk year, and get a bunch of decent prospects.
NotoriousEAM said:
I guess they've given up on Dom Smith, right?
I'm getting the sense that they have, and they're just waiting for Peter Alonso to get some time at AAA.
ml1 said:
as a fan who watched the Mets trade Tom Seaver for a boatload of serviceable pieces, I can tell you it's not a path to contending again.
Exhibit B: the team that traded Cole Hamels, a top MLB starter (and lefty to boot; oh, how those crafty southpaws endure!) with 5 years of team control.
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:Exhibit B: the team that traded Cole Hamels, a top MLB starter (and lefty to boot; oh, how those crafty southpaws endure!) with 5 years of team control.
as a fan who watched the Mets trade Tom Seaver for a boatload of serviceable pieces, I can tell you it's not a path to contending again.
Who did the Phils get back for Hamels?
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:Exhibit B: the team that traded Cole Hamels, a top MLB starter (and lefty to boot; oh, how those crafty southpaws endure!) with 5 years of team control.
as a fan who watched the Mets trade Tom Seaver for a boatload of serviceable pieces, I can tell you it's not a path to contending again. The Mets are not one or two players from contending. But they aren't 5 or 6 replacement level players away from contending either. They need a couple of guys who are very good, not a bunch of guys who are mediocre.
I'm not sure I'm getting your point. None of the guys the Phils got for Hamels is the reason they're contending for the division lead this year. If the Mets got the equivalent in return for deGrom, they'd still need to come up with a whole bunch of other good players to rebuild.
ml1 said:
I'm not sure I'm getting your point. None of the guys the Phils got for Hamels is the reason they're contending for the division lead this year. If the Mets got the equivalent in return for deGrom, they'd still need to come up with a whole bunch of other good players to rebuild.
They wouldn’t be leading the division without Alfaro and Williams. True, they are only pieces, but, as you say, you need as many pieces as you can get to rebuild. That’s been my point. I won’t bore (or confound) everyone by making it any more.
Jim: They also got Eickhoff and Jake Thompson. Eickhoff is hurt but looks like a keeper. Thompson has been up and down.
Here’s how ESPN sees the Cubs as a potential suitor for deGrom, with major-leaguers leading the package:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:They wouldn’t be leading the division without Alfaro and Williams. True, they are only pieces, but, as you say, you need as many pieces as you can get to rebuild. That’s been my point. I won’t bore (or confound) everyone by making it any more.
I'm not sure I'm getting your point. None of the guys the Phils got for Hamels is the reason they're contending for the division lead this year. If the Mets got the equivalent in return for deGrom, they'd still need to come up with a whole bunch of other good players to rebuild.
Jim: They also got Eickhoff and Jake Thompson. Eickhoff is hurt but looks like a keeper. Thompson has been up and down.
I don't think they needed to trade a front line starter to get a catcher and a fourth outfielder.
You need good pieces to rebuild. And the Phillies best pieces were draft picks and Latin American free agent picks.
I'm not saying a team should not trade their best players. But you need to get something in return that is better than just a couple of average players. If not, don't do it. A front line starter who is among the top 2-3 pitchers in the league is worth more than a whole lineup of average players. You can pick up average players anywhere.
ml1 said:
You need good pieces to rebuild. And the Phillies best pieces were draft picks and Latin American free agent picks.
It comes down to your being more certain than I am that the other team’s top prospect will pan out. I’ll take the pretty good odds of getting two or three average (and potentially better) big leaguers, which every contender needs to go with its star draft picks and free agents, over the decent chance that the trade ends up riding on a Dom (Smith or Brown, pick ’em). They happen to the best of the scouting staffs.
DaveSchmidt said:
Here’s how ESPN sees the Cubs as a potential suitor for deGrom, with major-leaguers leading the package:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster
I don't want to trade deGrom. That said, Cubs should have to put Almora on the table if the Mets are to even talk. He's still only 24. That said, did I mention I don't want to trade deGrom?
Train_of_Thought said:I don't want to trade deGrom. That said, Cubs should have to put Almora on the table if the Mets are to even talk. He's still only 24. That said, did I mention I don't want to trade deGrom?
Theo brings good news: If that’s your prerequisite, you’ve got your wish.
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:It comes down to your being more certain than I am that the other team’s top prospect will pan out. I’ll take the pretty good odds of getting two or three average (and potentially better) big leaguers, which every contender needs to go with its star draft picks and free agents, over the decent chance that the trade ends up riding on a Dom (Smith or Brown, pick ’em). They happen to the best of the scouting staffs.
You need good pieces to rebuild. And the Phillies best pieces were draft picks and Latin American free agent picks.
For a player as good as deGrom, I'd want the other team's top prospect AND 2-3 other prospects. If any team offered only their top prospect for an elite pitcher in his prime, they'd likely be laughed out of the room. And in the perspective of past deals we've seen, the going rate is a very highly rated prospect and a few other players. The Yankees got Gleybar Torres and other players for a half season of Aroldis Chapman. The Mets got Toronto's top prospect and other players (Travis d'Arnaud, who turned out to be the "other guy" in the Syndergaard deal) for one season of R.A. Dickey.
DaveSchmidt said:
OK. Best of luck.
Probably why a deal won't happen. It doesn't appear that the teams that have the pieces to make a deal are the ones that need to make a deal.
You seem to think the scenarios I'm throwing out are unreasonable. But the so-called experts seem to think the same as I do. deGrom is worth more than one top prospect. From the ESPN article, an example in which the Mets would get 3 big leaguers, two of whom are still young and developing:
A survey of major league baseball scouts, front-office executives (not associated with the Mets or Cubs) and media members zeroed in on a trio of Cubs who could be the centerpiece of a larger deal with the Mets: shortstop Addison Russell, infielder/outfielder Ian Happand pitcher Mike Montgomery.
ml1 said:
You seem to think the scenarios I'm throwing out are unreasonable.
What do I know? If I had Torres, I might not have traded him even for a 30-year-old Seaver and his 35 games a year.
DaveSchmidt said:
ml1 said:What do I know? If I had Torres, I might not have traded him even for a 30-year-old Seaver and his 35 games a year.
You seem to think the scenarios I'm throwing out are unreasonable.
I thought Chicago way overpaid for Chapman, who ended up going right back to the Yanks after the season. But they did win a World Series, so they probably figured the deal is even. And they did have Javier Baez as their fall back, so there's that too.
Cleveland paid top dollar for the San Diego relievers. Was Familia even considered? I think most closers are overrated, so I would take advantage of that.
FilmCarp said:
Cleveland paid top dollar for the San Diego relievers. Was Familia even considered? I think most closers are overrated, so I would take advantage of that.
MLB.com lists Familia here:
10 players whose trade stock is rising
Agree with you that the Mets should jump on this.
ml1 said:
FilmCarp said:MLB.com lists Familia here:
Cleveland paid top dollar for the San Diego relievers. Was Familia even considered? I think most closers are overrated, so I would take advantage of that.
10 players whose trade stock is rising
Agree with you that the Mets should jump on this.
I wish that they could have jumped on it. How do they miss these deals?
be patient. there still a week and half left. and the closer to the deadline, the more likely some team with a need will get desperate.
Maybe, but the idea of missing a good catching prospect frustrates me. A position the Mets need to improve. I wonder if the Mets were approached at all by the Indians.
Coincidentally, deGrom and Hamels appear in the same ESPN article today. It’s an interesting statistical take, with some requisite caveats:
The Most Common Trade Deadline Mistake and the MLB’s Next Big Thing
With that in mind, here are a few trade candidates whose season-to-date performances cry out for significant negative regression: Jacob deGrom, Mets; J.T. Realmuto, Marlins; Jed Lowrie, Athletics; J.A. Happ, Blue Jays; Scooter Gennett, Reds; Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers; Francisco Cervelli, Pirates; Eduardo Escobar, Twins; and Corey Dickerson, Pirates.
It's not that any of these players are unworthy of targeting. But to know what you'd be getting, you had better look toward past seasons and not fixate on this year's success. Structure your offers accordingly.
On the flip side, here are some other trade candidates who are better than what they've shown so far in 2018. A team acquiring them might not only uncover a bargain, but a key piece for the postseason races ahead: Noah Syndergaard, Mets; Chris Archer, Rays; Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays; Brian Dozier, Twins; Yoenis Cespedes, Mets; Jose Abreu, White Sox; Adrian Beltre, Rangers; Todd Frazier, Mets; Adam Duvall, Reds; Cole Hamels, Rangers; and Adam Jones, Orioles.
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Go ahead and trade deGrom, but don’t pin everything on getting a Top 10 MLB prospect. Instead, as in the Machado and Hamels trades, deal in bulk: a franchise’s No. 4 (or so) prospect and four or five other young players you like.