Hot Stove League 2023 Version

jfinnegan said:

I thought he was going to get $400 mil. That deal doesn't seem that bad to me.

Yankees will get 4, maybe 5 good years out of Judge and then he will start a rapid decline.  They will be paying an old DH $40M per year before it's over.


yahooyahoo said:

Yankees will get 4, maybe 5 good years out of Judge and then he will start a rapid decline.  They will be paying an old DH $40M per year before it's over.

You never know. Edgar Martinez did more than OK as an old dude. 

I’m generally a fan of loyalty, both ways, so I applaud both parties for making this work.

SF had to be very tempting.


The Mets are sounding as if they think Nimmo is gone. He's fortunate to be a FA in a year where there really aren't any other two-way CFs. But teams may also be thinking he's got even more upside than he's shown due to the 2023 rule changes. Turns out that the best estimates for batted balls that were outs in the shift in the past that will be hits in the future are ground balls hit 100+ MPH into the shift. And it turns out Nimmo was among the top hitters in baseball last year with about 20 such batted balls. And he's also one of the top guys in terms of sprint speed, so there is some thought that the pitch clock and larger bases may mean more SBs for him.

Not only is he among only a few good hitting CFs, that position is also a deficit on a lot of otherwise good teams. How many years have the Yanks and Phils been looking for an answer? How many years were the Mets before Nimmo emerged as as good fielder last year?


ml1 said:

The Mets are sounding as if they think Nimmo is gone. He's fortunate to be a FA in a year where there really aren't any other two-way CFs. But teams may also be thinking he's got even more upside than he's shown due to the 2023 rule changes. Turns out that the best estimates for batted balls that were outs in the shift in the past that will be hits in the future are ground balls hit 100+ MPH into the shift. And it turns out Nimmo was among the top hitters in baseball last year with about 20 such batted balls. And he's also one of the top guys in terms of sprint speed, so there is some thought that the pitch clock and larger bases may mean more SBs for him.

Not only is he among only a few good hitting CFs, that position is also a deficit on a lot of otherwise good teams. How many years have the Yanks and Phils been looking for an answer? How many years were the Mets before Nimmo emerged as as good fielder last year?

Excellent analysis.


ml1 said:

 there is some thought that the pitch clock and larger bases may mean more SBs for him.

Um, he didn't steal ANY bases last year (one or two?).

But I like the rest of the analysis. 

Just listened to the Mets podcast and they made the case that not signing Nimo will hurt more than not signing deGrom. I agree. 


Soul_29 said:

Um, he didn't steal ANY bases last year (one or two?).

But I like the rest of the analysis. 

Just listened to the Mets podcast and they made the case that not signing Nimo will hurt more than not signing deGrom. I agree. 

10 SBs would be more than 1 or 2. There isn't anyone likely thinking Nimmo will steal 20 or 30 bases. But 10 or 12 at the right times would be a plus. 


Soul_29 said:

Um, he didn't steal ANY bases last year (one or two?).

But I like the rest of the analysis. 

Just listened to the Mets podcast and they made the case that not signing Nimo will hurt more than not signing deGrom. I agree. 

and I agree grin


ml1 said:

Soul_29 said:

Um, he didn't steal ANY bases last year (one or two?).

But I like the rest of the analysis. 

Just listened to the Mets podcast and they made the case that not signing Nimo will hurt more than not signing deGrom. I agree. 

10 SBs would be more than 1 or 2. There isn't anyone likely thinking Nimmo will steal 20 or 30 bases. But 10 or 12 at the right times would be a plus. 

23.

I had to look.

23 CAREER stolen bases!


Soul_29 said:

23.

I had to look.

23 CAREER stolen bases!

we should bet over/under on Nimmo's SBs next year. Let's set it at 9.5. I'll take the over. grin


Judge + Stanton + Cole > Orioles + A’s.


ml1 said:

How many years have the Yanks and Phils been looking for an answer?

Ten and counting, Phils-wise.


DaveSchmidt said:

Ten and counting, Phils-wise.

say hello to Brandon Nimmo. 


ml1 said:

Soul_29 said:

23.

I had to look.

23 CAREER stolen bases!

we should bet over/under on Nimmo's SBs next year. Let's set it at 9.5. I'll take the over.
grin

I am taking this bet. 


The Mets really need Nimmo back.  There just isn't a good replacement on the horizon.  And I'm really bummed about Walker.  More than DeGrom, and that's no slight.  I feel that Verlander is an even replacement for DeGrom, and I like shorter deals.  But the Mets need essentially 1000 innings out of 5 starters.  No matter how good the first three are, they have to fill 400 more.  And injuries happen.  


Soul_29 said:

I am taking this bet. 

what are the stakes? grin


DanDietrich said:

The Mets really need Nimmo back.  There just isn't a good replacement on the horizon.  And I'm really bummed about Walker.  More than DeGrom, and that's no slight.  I feel that Verlander is an even replacement for DeGrom, and I like shorter deals.  But the Mets need essentially 1000 innings out of 5 starters.  No matter how good the first three are, they have to fill 400 more.  And injuries happen.  

I'm still hoping Bassitt returns. But even if he doesn't I'm feeling confident about Peterson and Megill. And they've added a few other guys for depth in case of injuries. I'm more concerned that the bullpen is still thin. 


Quite a deal.  They are stacked.  But it does push 4 guys out of position.  


ml1 said:

Holy cow

Damned right.  I spoke above to the Padres wanting to spend big, so not totally surprised.  But the length of the deal is surprising--I am sure it surprised the Red Sox who I think were nervous enough at 5 years. 

The long-term deals for Harper, Turner, and now Bogaerts are related to the CBT.  The Annual Average Values may be lower than shorter-term deals, but the absolute value over the life of the contract is what matters.  Essentially teams are saying they are fine paying for low or no production in the out years in return for securing solid performances in the near-term while trying to stay under the cap (or as low as they can if over the cap).  Where once upon a time it was the Mets who were scorned for the Bobby Bonilla fiasco, I think we are going to see many others in this situation in a few years when these guys age out or are injured.

Even with the spread out term, the Padres are taking a hit with this signing.  They are already over the cap, and they are a two-year offender, so they are going to pay for this.  Bogaerts has a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so it will cost the Padres compensation, too (although as a two time offender themselves the Sox won't get as much as they might).

Bogaerts is a really solid hitter, and being stacked in with Machado, Soto, and Tatis he will be seeing a lot of good pitches to hit.  

As DanDietrich notes, the issue is where to play him.  Early on in the FA process his reps said he was absolutely committed to only playing shortstop.  Meanwhile the Padres have a Gold Glove quality guy there right now (Kim) and a pretty good one coming off the cheaters-list early next year (Tatis).  I wonder if part of getting 11 years Bogaerts agreeing to be more flexible on this.  Bogaerts is an average-quality shortstop--nothing to get too excited over.  And he is a really big guy, so he will slow down quickly as he ages.

It is possible they shift Kim to second and Cronenworth to first and Tatis to the outfield.  The NL having a DH will help them move folks around also.

Expect the Dodgers to now go in huge for Correa or Swanson (my bets are on Swanson).


mfpark said:

Bogaerts is an average-quality shortstop--nothing to get too excited over.

Interestingly,* the advanced fielding stats (DRS, UZR, RAA) suggest that Bogaerts was a below-average SS for most of his career until an uptick this past season.

* I’ll admit I’m not entirely sold on the merits of these stats, which often conflict with one another, and shifts — it’s possible the Sox relied more heavily on them in 2022 — have only complicated the conclusions to be taken from them.


mfpark said:

ml1 said:

The Mets are sounding as if they think Nimmo is gone. He's fortunate to be a FA in a year where there really aren't any other two-way CFs. But teams may also be thinking he's got even more upside than he's shown due to the 2023 rule changes. Turns out that the best estimates for batted balls that were outs in the shift in the past that will be hits in the future are ground balls hit 100+ MPH into the shift. And it turns out Nimmo was among the top hitters in baseball last year with about 20 such batted balls. And he's also one of the top guys in terms of sprint speed, so there is some thought that the pitch clock and larger bases may mean more SBs for him.

Not only is he among only a few good hitting CFs, that position is also a deficit on a lot of otherwise good teams. How many years have the Yanks and Phils been looking for an answer? How many years were the Mets before Nimmo emerged as as good fielder last year?

Excellent analysis.

Just found this article about the results from testing the new rules in the minors.  The net result was a negligible change in batting average for balls put in play. Personally, I think changing the rules to prevent the shift is stupid. If a professional batter can't lay down a bunt/slaphit to the empty side of the field, that's their problem.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/banning-shifts-had-almost-no-effect-on-batted-ball-outcomes-in-the-minors/#:~:text=Major%20League%20Baseball%20will%20effectively,when%20the%20pitch%20is%20delivered.

Despite no significant change in batted-ball outcomes by banning shifts, MLB expanded the shift restrictions in 2022 to include Low-A and High-A as well as Double-A.

Once again, those restrictions did not lead to a corresponding increase in batted balls turning into hits. In fact, the batting average on balls in play actually went down with the introduction of shift restrictions at High-A and Low-A this year.

The reason is simple. Double-A managers last year repeatedly cited that, in the end, everything evened out. While banning the shift turned some balls that would have been outs into hits, having defenders play straight up also turned an even number of balls that would have been hits against the shift into outs.

“Nothing really changed,” Kevin Randel, manager of the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate at Pensacola, said last fall. “I didn’t see any advantages or disadvantages to it at all. In the end it all kind of evened out … You steal some outs and you give up some cheap hits. I think it was pretty much all the same.”


ml1 said:

Soul_29 said:

I am taking this bet. 

what are the stakes?
grin

Burger and a beer at the local spot the winner chooses. 


ml1 said:

I'm more concerned that the bullpen is still thin. 

I might've liked to have seen the Mets make a play for Jansen to be 8th inning guy. Not his old self anymore but lord knows WE'VE never gotten to him.

BTW, Soul is lock to win that burger.


Train_of_Thought said:

BTW, Soul is lock to win that burger.

I agree.

It is in Nimmo’s head that he puts himself at injury risk by stealing and sliding.


Back to the Padres, it's really 4 guys getting pushed out of position.  SS to second, 2B to first, Tatis to RF, and Soto from right to left.  That's a lot.

question: who gets the money from the competitive balance tax?


jimmurphy said:

Train_of_Thought said:

BTW, Soul is lock to win that burger.

I agree.

It is in Nimmo’s head that he puts himself at injury risk by stealing and sliding.

I know he's from Wyoming (not Utah), but I think he's a Mormon who believes stealing is bad or something!


I have heard him say that he doesn't want to get caught with good hitters behind him.  He gets caught and Lindor or Alonso has no one to drive in.


DanDietrich said:

I have heard him say that he doesn't want to get caught with good hitters behind him.  He gets caught and Lindor or Alonso has no one to drive in.

Rickey Henderson NEVER thought about getting caught. 90% of base-stealing is half mental. 


What I was astonished by was he had never learned how to slide head first up until two years ago. I would have figured that's something you just pick up on. I know they say not slide headfirst, but it does seem like the faster way to get there when stealing 2nd base.


jfinnegan said:

What I was astonished by was he had never learned how to slide head first up until two years ago. I would have figured that's something you just pick up on. I know they say not slide headfirst, but it does seem like the faster way to get there when stealing 2nd base.

My recollection is that Nimmo's high school did not have a baseball team. He strictly played travel (American Legion) ball. I mention that because that might be why his development took a little longer and maybe why he's not familiar with some of the basics. Just a thought. 


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