First look at the possible Nor'easter Sun (1/31) through Wed (2/3):
Expecting a system to come through sometime during the three day period, most likely Monday. The models are in fairly good consensus (considering we are 96+ hours out) on a slow-moving storm. Also right now a fairly good consensus on about +/- 1 inch of precipitation, so not looking like a monster storm at this point, but expect it to be more than yesterday.
Still not clear how much would be rain and how much snow, or exactly how long and when, so we will keep an eye on it and update again tomorrow.
Because we are still so far out, expect changes to all facets of the forecast!
Although we are still three-plus days out, there are some consistent signals in the models regarding the storm early next week. Most notably, the likelihood of a snowstorm (but not a blizzard) continues to increase. Best guess right now, and this is still very much subject to change, would be a long-duration event that starts out late Sunday as mostly snow, continues through Monday and into Tuesday with some sleet mixing in during the day. Wednesday is likely dry. Best guess accumulation might be in the 6" - 8" range right now.
The main energy for this storm is just coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest today. 24 hours of on-shore sampling will give the NWS a much better idea what's what.
Images below show one model, the GFS, at the beginning and end of the event, showing the long duration of moderate snowfall. If this particular solution verified, we would get 6" of snow in 40+ hours. Note this is not a forecast, only one example of model output for a system that is still mostly out to sea in the Pacific, so take it as an indication of potential, not a prediction.
For many years, we always threw Groundhog’s Day parties.
First off, few people claimed it as party time. Secondly, with a month of hard winter after Xmas & New Years, everyone NEEDED a party by Feb. 2.
We finally discontinued it after a blizzard wiped us out. My taller half, MelechRich, had decided to traipse off to Arizona, but I decided to carry on, anyway. Dear JustMeLaura had cooked us up a helluva food spread, but then the snow projections went wild, so I reluctantly told everyone to stay home. Scully came to visit, and before we knew it, her car was buried in white, up past her mirrors. With food for 30, we didn’t starve.
A certain MOLer, ScottGreenstone, who was training for the Ironman, was a savior. He volunteered to help out our community by shoveling. Singlehandedly, he dug out NINE houses, IIRC. The snow was so high, we couldn’t see him behind the snow banks, but the shovelfuls were flung up and over, high into the air, like a relentless steam engine. My gratitude for that knew no bounds.
After that, I figured that our annual wingding in tribute to Punxsutawney Phil needed a rethink. I still miss them.
And this Tuesday, I have to get my COVID vaccine. I think Phil and I need to have a talk. Sigh...
Back at college - I used to have a Groundhog's Eve party - we would hoist a groundhog stuffed animal to the ceiling (covered in xmas light) and light it up at midnight. I still have him!
Any change in the winter storm forecast for the period beginning Sunday or is it still too far out to have a reasonable idea of what we facing and when?
Monday 2/1/21 Potential Storm Update for Friday 1/29
Models continue to be in fairly good agreement on the potential for a winter storm in the Sunday - Tuesday (1/31 - 2/2) time frame, with the major factor being accumulating snow over an extended period.
Key revisions to my last post:
-- The latest model runs have the storm further south, and as a result less impact on our area, so less snow in today's projection. This can easily change again over the next three days, though.
-- Most models are also a little later on the start of precipitation, with the window now looking more like Monday into Monday night, with the potential for wrap-around snow squalls Tuesday as the system heads north towards Boston.
-- Winds with this storm are currently modelling as moderate to advisory level. Maybe a steady 15 - 20 here with gusts of 30 - 35, but much higher near the shore and on Long Island, so don't be surprised if you here more dire forecasts on TV. For comparison, wind today is 20 - 25 with gusts 35 - 45.
-- This cold air, which will be in place through the weekend, helps the trend towards an all-snow event, with little to any changeover here.
Best guess forecast at this time: Snow possibly starting early Monday. Snow, moderate mostly, continuing through Monday into the early hours of Tuesday, with the chance of snow showers during the day Tuesday. Possible total accumulation 4" - 8" (current guidance on the lower side but I reserve judgment).
Still a lot of moving piece but they are mostly moving in unison this time, which does make the forecasting a little easier.Next update tomorrow.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
340 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021
CTZ005>011-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179-
302000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.210201T0500Z-210202T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
340 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
&&
$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
Well, overnight all the major models shifted the storm track northeast, and some have put us right in the center of the snow. As a result, the official NWS forecast now has us looking at 8 - 12", mostly on Monday.
At this moment, timing is the same with snow likely starting overnight Sun - Mon and the heaviest snowfall coming most likely Mon afternoon. Travel on Monday could be hazardous with heavy snow and blowing and drifting possible. We might see sleet mixing in late Mon. Still a chance of snow showers Tuesday, as well as a chance of a significant dry slot along the way that would lower totals.
While I am not loving this sudden shift, it is on a lot of different models and their component members, so we have to take it very seriously.
I have a colonoscopy mid-day Tuesday, with Max's favorite gastroenterologist, John Franzese (thank you Max, for the recommendation) and my wife is driving. It looks as if there will be enough time to clear the roads if the major part of the snowfall ends late Monday (and if I can get my driveway cleared.)
We're going through all the trouble of a major snowfall, and the snow will be a mixture of slush and mud by the weekend. It's a pain to shovel and clean up after the snow but I like when it hangs around for a while.
Back at college - I used to have a Groundhog's Eve party - we would hoist a groundhog stuffed animal to the ceiling (covered in xmas light) and light it up at midnight. I still have him!
This ‘groundhog’ thing looks like a fuzzy roast chicken.
Winter Storm watch now extended, runs Sun midnight until Tues 6 am.
A significant winter storm is expected Sunday night through Tuesday morning, 1/31 - 2/2
Headline is that the models are still consistently indicating a significant long duration snowfall, with accumulations of 6 - 10" likely. We are also seeing high winds on Monday afternoon, with gusts of 40 - 50 mph possible.
Timing: Snow is likely to overspread the area starting with light snow starting late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night and becoming moderate after midnight. Heaviest snow appears to be Monday afternoon for several hours. The storm looks like it is going to stall off the Jersey shore, and the location and length of this stall will have an effect on snowfall totals. The GFS, NAM, and Euro models all have at least 1 - 1.5" of liquid precipitation, so there is an upside to the snow totals if it stays cold. There is some disagreement in the models over the temp profile, with the Euro warmer, especially Tuesday night, which could lead to a changover to sleet or rain and lower snow depth. The NAM and the GFS are colder and show all snow. Some light snow could continue into the early hours of Tuesday morning.
Winds: While this is not a particularly powerful storm, there could still be some pretty strong northerly winds with steady winds of 25 - 30 for most of Monday and gusts that could reach 40 - 50 Monday afternoon.
Snow showers possible on Tuesday but don't expect much if any additional accumulation. Cold Tuesday night. A little warmer Wednesday but face it, this one will have to be shoveled, it's not going away on its own.
First look at the possible Nor'easter Sun (1/31) through Wed (2/3):
Expecting a system to come through sometime during the three day period, most likely Monday. The models are in fairly good consensus (considering we are 96+ hours out) on a slow-moving storm. Also right now a fairly good consensus on about +/- 1 inch of precipitation, so not looking like a monster storm at this point, but expect it to be more than yesterday.
Still not clear how much would be rain and how much snow, or exactly how long and when, so we will keep an eye on it and update again tomorrow.
Because we are still so far out, expect changes to all facets of the forecast!