Did the CDC jump the gun?
Pediatricians Concerned About Rise In COVID-19 Among Children
90 Cases Of Rare Inflammatory Condition From COVID-19 In Wisconsin. Average Age Of Those Diagnosed Is 7 Years Old.
https://www.wpr.org/pediatricians-concerned-about-rise-covid-19-among-children
New and more infectious variants, such as the U.K. strain B.1.1.7, combined with fewer pandemic restrictions has led to new outbreaks among children. In the past few weeks, Wisconsin has seen more cases in individuals under 18 years old than any other age group.
While most children don’t get severely ill, more are requiring serious medical care.
Research released recently by the Journal of the American Medical Association shows 11 percent of young patients had to be hospitalized and nearly one-third of those needed intensive care.
Some of those infected will get a complication called multisystem inflammatory syndrome, or MIS-C. There have been 90 cases of the condition in Wisconsin since the pandemic began. The average age of those affected is 7 years old, according to state health data. Most of the cases occurred November through February, when the state experienced a surge of new COVID-19 cases....
...
The complication from COVID-19 is rare and usually occurs two to four weeks after infection. State health officials are trying to remind parents and doctors of the condition as cases of COVID-19 rise among children, said Thomas Haupt, a research scientist DHS.
In Michigan, a record-breaking number of children have been hospitalized with Covid
Experts blame a more transmissible variant, which appears to be spreading faster among children and adults.
DETROIT — Among the many alarming consequences of Michigan’s recent Covid-19 surge is one that has doctors particularly concerned: a record-breaking spike in child hospitalizations.
Data from the Michigan Health & Hospital Association shows that the number of children hospitalized with severe Covid-19 symptoms hit a high of 70 this week — twice as many as were hospitalized during the worst days of the wave that swept the state in November.
The numbers have public officials across the country watching Michigan, raising questions about why the B.1.1.7, or U.K., coronavirus variant behind the latest wave here is leading to more cases of children who are seriously ill...
He noted that the Covkid Project, which tracks child deaths from Covid-19 using government reports and news accounts, had documented 582 child deaths as of late March, which could make the disease one of the top 10 causes of death for children in the U.S.
Still, most children hospitalized for Covid-19 have a high likelihood of surviving, said Dr. Bishara Freij, the chief of pediatric infectious disease at Michigan’s Beaumont Hospital. The project has logged only 10 deaths of children or teens from Covid-19 in Michigan since the pandemic began.
“The vast majority will recover because we have learned a lot during this pandemic on how to manage these kids,” he said. But the path to recovery can be difficult and distressing for children and their parents, he said.
Kari Barrows was quarantined with her daughter, Karissa, at Beaumont Children's Hospital in Royal Oak, Mich. “It was all really, really scary,” said Kari Barrows, of Hazel Park, Michigan, whose daughter Karissa, 16, just got home from a five-day stay at Beaumont Children’s Hospital. “I was panicking, crying a lot.”
The hospital’s Covid-19 safety rules meant Barrows was quarantined in her daughter’s room for her entire stay, unable to leave or take turns with her husband as her daughter struggled to breathe. “I’d go hide in the bathroom to cry because I didn’t want her to see me cry. I didn’t want to scare her.”
Karissa had Covid-19 pneumonia, which is the primary driver behind the current spike in child hospitalizations in Michigan, said Freij, who treated her...
sprout said:
terp said:
BTW: the CDC is about a year late on the mask mandate. Anyone who is wearing maks outdoors at this point should check themselves into a mental facility.
No they are not. There are multiple studies that provide evidence that conversations outdoors with someone infected has passed the infection outdoors.
There have been all kinds of studies, many of which have been flawed and flat out wrong. Quite unfortunately, the most alarming have been the most amplified by the corporate media. Experts who pointed out these flaws or who doubted any aspect of the narrative have been muted by the corporate and large social media companies. The fear sells and we've been bombarded with it relentlessly over the last year plus.
There are hopeful signs that this environment of fear is coming to an end. Here is the crowd from last weekend's Canelo Alvarez fight.
terp said:
If you are vaccinated I'm unsure why you are obsessed with others getting vaccinated. It says right on the CDC site that they don't know if it prevents asymptomatic spread at all. But being as educated as you are, I'm sure you already knew this.
from your link:
We are still learning how well vaccines prevent you from spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 to others, even if you do not have symptoms. Early data show that vaccines help keep people with no symptoms from spreading COVID-19.
The CDC is not saying what you said they are saying.
If the science is really on your side, why couldn't you give an exact quote instead of an incomplete paraphrase?
Michigan at 'record high' for COVID-19 hospitalizations of children
..."The state is at a record high for hospitalizations for pediatrics during the entire pandemic and our hospital reflects that," said Dr. Rudolph Valentini, a pediatric nephrologist at Children's Hospital of Michigan and group chief medical officer for the Detroit Medical Center....
Among the biggest drivers of coronavirus infections in the state, health officials have said, are outbreaks among youth athletes and those associated with K-12 schools. This week, the state reported 312 ongoing or new school outbreaks, which includes infections linked to classrooms, after-school activities and sports.
Cases among kids ages 10-19 are at an all-time high, the state's top epidemiologist, Sarah Lyon-Callo, reported last week, quadrupling from four weeks earlier....
And I know correlation doesn't imply causation, but here is a graph of NJ's average daily cases. It may not be causal, but after the state passed 50% of residents at least partially dosed, a pattern appears.
Terp:
We do know the short term effect of widespread vaccination. It wipes Covid out. Israel had 20 new cases yesterday. It's been double digits - nothing essentially - for some time. This in a country of 10 million people that has opened up.
jamie said:
terp said:
The younger and healthier a person is the higher the risk of a vaccine side effect becomes against the risk of the actual virus. For example, a healthy child's immune system offers more protection than the pharmaceutical companies claims regarding vaccine effectiveness.
Do you have link backing up this claim?
meh. who cares if he has a link? You can find a link for every bogus claim. His claim is not even worth arguing about, it's so absurd.
terp said:
There have been all kinds of studies, many of which have been flawed and flat out wrong.
Can you point out a flawed/wrong study? I'd be happy to discuss some original peer-reviewed sources with you. I'd also be happy to find that outdoor transmission is impossible among the kids I coach outdoors, so they could be maskless while talking to each other in close proximity.
If you can find something that guarantees that the kids teams I coach won't transmit COVID to each other if we are maskless (as most of them are unvaccinated), as we are all hanging out and playing outside, it would be much appreciated.
terp said:
It is possible that what you say is true. There just isn't any science to back it up. Also, these vaccines are very new. They would not be approved for years in normal times. We do not understand the long term risks and we are not tracking the side effects using the most modern and advanced systems we have.
The younger and healthier a person is the higher the risk of a vaccine side effect becomes against the risk of the actual virus. For example, a healthy child's immune system offers more protection than the pharmaceutical companies claims regarding vaccine effectiveness.
While there's always the risk of side effects with vaccines, that risk strikes me as much lower than that posed by contracting covid. When exposed to covid, the amount of exposure is uncontrolled - it might be a small viral load, it might be a large one. There'll be a different immune response based on how much exposure, and at the same time now the body has to fight off a virus that's busy multiplying itself.
With a vaccine, by contrast, the dose is controlled, so that's one huge variable that's now become fixed. Furthermore, there's no infection, just a triggered immune response.
Making sure we properly understand the relationship between dose and immune response is important and where a lot of uncertainty can lie, and we have a lot more data on adults than children at this point. And not everyone's body will react the same way. But in contrast to completely uncontrolled exposure, there's definitely a lot less uncertainty.
I don't believe we can make a definitive statement such as "a healthy child's immune system offers more protection" given that we can't know how much virus a child would be exposed to in any given uncontrolled encounter with the virus. It seems to me that at most what you can say is that we currently do not know enough about how children under 12 react to the vaccines -- and that's why it's not yet offered to that age group.
tl;dr -- the same mechanism that supposedly offers a child more protection against the risk of the actual virus is exactly the same one triggered by administering a vaccine, but with far fewer variables involved.
mjc said:
Well, it's dandy that vaccinated folks don't have to wear masks, but who's checking whether the unmasked people are actually vaccinated? I'm concerned that a whole lot of unvaccinated will also be out there unmasked, passing the illness around and incubating mutations.....
Not seeing it as a major incentive to get vaccinated since, as noted, nobody's checking afaik.
Well it's an incentive if the person hears it as - "If YOU are vaccinated, then it is probably safe FOR YOU to go without a mask. But I'm sure everyone hears it in their own way. I personally will only trust people I know personally to be vaccinated (and/or very cautious, etc.) or people who I can visibly see are wearing a mask properly and I will be avoiding spending time in close proximity with others whenever possible and wearing a mask if I can't avoid it. I believe that the mask mandate still is in place on trains, planes, buses, etc. as well as in airports. I hope so, because I do hope to do some air travel later in the year.
PVW said:
While there's always the risk of side effects with vaccines, that risk strikes me as much lower than that posed by contracting covid. When exposed to covid, the amount of exposure is uncontrolled - it might be a small viral load, it might be a large one. There'll be a different immune response based on how much exposure, and at the same time now the body has to fight off a virus that's busy multiplying itself.
With a vaccine, by contrast, the dose is controlled, so that's one huge variable that's now become fixed. Furthermore, there's no infection, just a triggered immune response.
Making sure we properly understand the relationship between dose and immune response is important and where a lot of uncertainty can lie, and we have a lot more data on adults than children at this point. And not everyone's body will react the same way. But in contrast to completely uncontrolled exposure, there's definitely a lot less uncertainty.
I don't believe we can make a definitive statement such as "a healthy child's immune system offers more protection" given that we can't know how much virus a child would be exposed to in any given uncontrolled encounter with the virus. It seems to me that at most what you can say is that we currently do not know enough about how children under 12 react to the vaccines -- and that's why it's not yet offered to that age group.
tl;dr -- the same mechanism that supposedly offers a child more protection against the risk of the actual virus is exactly the same one triggered by administering a vaccine, but with far fewer variables involved.
yes.
And after hundreds of millions of vaccine doses administered we know that negative reactions occur in an infinitesimal proportion of cases. Statiscally the probability of a serious outcome from coronavirus is much higher than a serious reaction to the vaccine.
For the average person, getting vaccinated should be a no-brainer. Unless there's a medical reason not to, of course. For virtually everyone else it's basically an IQ test.
As many as possible kids under age 12 also need to be vaccinated to stop the pandemic.
I agree with Michael Smerconish(?sp) on his point that while Trump failed miserably at vital leadership on the covid pandemic, he did approve the warp speed vaccine production program. So, we do need to acknowledge this.
More than 100s of millions vaccinated. 1.4 billion worldwide. Also, trials of the vaccines involving thousands of people began well over a year ago. It's not like the first guinea pigs were those who started getting jabbed five or six month ago after the drugs were approved. Against Terp's vague misgivings that maybe down the road their will be side effects (citing no odds or particular scientific concern about these drugs) we have the very real 100% fact of overwhelmingly unvaccinated people still dying or sick enough to be in the hospital.
ml1 said:
yes.
And after hundreds of millions of vaccine doses administered we know that negative reactions occur in an infinitesimal proportion of cases. Statiscally the probability of a serious outcome from coronavirus is much higher than a serious reaction to the vaccine.
For the average person, getting vaccinated should be a no-brainer. Unless there's a medical reason not to, of course. For virtually everyone else it's basically an IQ test.
When thinking about the risk of side effects, I think many people unknowingly switch their reference frame and so make a mistake in their risk analysis.
Obviously getting a vaccine is more risky than a situation where you are both never exposed to the virus and never get a vaccine. People unlikely to be exposed to ebola should not get the ebola vaccine, for instance.
But that's not the correct comparison with covid. Unless one plans on personally practicing social distancing indefinitely, the odds of exposure to covid are high. The right comparison, then, is the risk of severe side effects from the vaccine versus the risk of severe illness from exposure to covid. I very much doubt that many (any?) of the people at risk from vaccine side effects would not run as great or greater risk from exposure to covid. Indeed, it seems hard to see how that could be the case, given that a vaccine is simply a controlled way of provoking the same immune response that allows people to successfully fight off a covid infection.
RobertRoe said:
I agree with Michael Smerconish(?sp) on his point that while Trump failed miserably at vital leadership on the covid pandemic, he did approve the warp speed vaccine production program. So, we do need to acknowledge this.
I guess there wasn't any money or other personal gain to be made by blocking it.
I read Bob Woodward's Book, RAGE. And except for the warp speed go ahead. many of Trump's decisions and statements were astoundingly stupid and sometimes downright cruel.
PVW said:
When thinking about the risk of side effects, I think many people unknowingly switch their reference frame and so make a mistake in their risk analysis.
Obviously getting a vaccine is more risky than a situation where you are both never exposed to the virus and never get a vaccine. People unlikely to be exposed to ebola should not get the ebola vaccine, for instance.
But that's not the correct comparison with covid. Unless one plans on personally practicing social distancing indefinitely, the odds of exposure to covid are high. The right comparison, then, is the risk of severe side effects from the vaccine versus the risk of severe illness from exposure to covid. I very much doubt that many (any?) of the people at risk from vaccine side effects would not run as great or greater risk from exposure to covid. Indeed, it seems hard to see how that could be the case, given that a vaccine is simply a controlled way of provoking the same immune response that allows people to successfully fight off a covid infection.
so much is still unknown about how long the after effects of a COVID-19 infection last. So many people look at the death rates alone and don't consider the possibility of long-term organ damage, including brain impairment. Getting jabbed seems to be nearly 100% effective in warding off severe symptoms.
From the CDC site:
COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective. COVID-19 vaccines were evaluated in tens of thousands of participants in clinical trials. The vaccines met the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) rigorous scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality needed to support emergency use authorization (EUA). Learn more about EUAs in this videoexternal icon.
. . . .
These vaccines have undergone and will continue to undergo the most intensive safety monitoring in U.S. history. This monitoring includes using both established and new safety monitoring systems to make sure that COVID-19 vaccines are safe.
. . . .
Long-term side effects are unlikely
Serious side effects that could cause a long-term health problem are extremely unlikely following any vaccination, including COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccine monitoring has historically shown that side effects generally happen within six weeks of receiving a vaccine dose. For this reason, the FDA required each of the authorized COVID-19 vaccines to be studied for at least two months (eight weeks) after the final dose. Millions of people have received COVID-19 vaccines, and no long-term side effects have been detected.
The fact is that vaccines are just about the safest drugs ever created. This has been shown historically. The only major screw-up was the swine flu debacle in the 70's. And that was a bureaucratic failure. Other than that, vaccines are remarkably benign drugs.
RobertRoe said:
The State of NJ now has Essex and the whole state as moderate activity.
I really want to learn how the Yankee players got infected. I want to know all the details. Now if the Yanks could just start hitting.
For 8 people in their organization to test positive, they must have been doing absolutely zero to prevent transmission. No masks, no distancing, etc.
terp said:
If you are vaccinated I'm unsure why you are obsessed with others getting vaccinated. It says right on the CDC site that they don't know if it prevents asymptomatic spread at all. But being as educated as you are, I'm sure you already knew this.
Because we need herd immunity to end the pandemic and getting more people vaccinated is the only way that herd immunity can happen anytime soon.
drummerboy said:
terp said:
The younger and healthier a person is the higher the risk of a vaccine side effect becomes against the risk of the actual virus. For example, a healthy child's immune system offers more protection than the pharmaceutical companies claims regarding vaccine effectiveness.
horsesh!t. truly horsesh!t
i think it was something about a structure in the lung that protected children with the original form...it couldn't attach like on adults, had nothing to do with the immune system. and it only impaired the virus and made it harder to infect...it obviously still could...i know an infant that got it about 7 months old. the mutation seem to be able to get at kids easier
With the obligatory caveat that correlation doesn't prove causation, there's a very strong relationship implied here:
(NYT)
Hey guys!
Please talk to your pediatrician rather than some internet dipshit about whether or not to vaccinate your kids.
I've come to a different mental space when it comes to the issue of vaccine hesitancy. I've been working in the Paterson Housing Authority buildings and while there was a concerted effort to bring the vaccine to that population directly (around mid-February), there was still some resistance. I've heard estimates of 20-20% of the residents refusing the vaccine (data from the building management staff). We tried to present information leading up to the visits, made all kinds of notices to make it convenient, right in the buildings themselves.
Many people just won't. You make no sales trying to argue with them, and certainly showing any disdain really turns them off so we have to try harder to understand them and try to employ techniques such as motivational interviewing to gently nudge them towards considering it. Paterson has even come up with a survey to try and gather some data to see if it helps them craft a better message. I've spent the last couple of weeks just trying to get people to take the survey.
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3ZJCY6G
It isn't so simple to just call them idiots. Some have real health concerns, like the person I spoke with for a good 30 minutes last week. She was concerned about the risk of organ damage and was adamant that they don't yet know enough about those vaccines' safety. She lost a kidney 7 years ago and doesn't want to risk it and no young white guy is gonna convince her otherwise. Some people are sick of the rancor. Some people don't know about medicine and are rightly suspicious of how people who look like they do are treated. The information doesn't always coincide from platform to platform. Plus, when new data comes about and groups like the CDC change guidance it is easy to just lump that in with things that are confusing.
There's the "First they said this and now they say..." type responses and unfortunately, open & forthright reporting about adverse reactions to getting vaccinated contributes to hesitancy. I mean "Okay then, so why do they have people wait around after the shot to make sure they're okay? I don't have to do that when I get a flu shot? Who the hell ever heard of a shot doing this to you?"
If a person is not able to consume and interpret medical information, things like that can't be easy to set aside.
Look, in a country where people spend $35B on crap like Nugenix and Focus Factor and other supplements and suck down probiotics because they think it will help blah,blah,blah, it's really no wonder that there are so many people who fight vaccinations.
Maybe vaccinations just need some fancier marketing.
Exactly. It's ultimately about critical thinking and good judgment. If your fears are founded on some kind of facts, fine. If they come from anonymous web sites, conspiracy quacks, Fox News or just your personal rumor mill, then, sorry, you are an idiot and I have no sympathy.
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Do you have link backing up this claim?