It's the worst for men. They are losing $1.00 for every $.79 a woman loses.
Goldman's new GDP forecast
Q1: -6%
Q2: -24%
Q3: +12%
Q4: +10%
Full-year: -3.1% (q4/q4)
Unemployment rate to peak at 9%.
Unemployment is going much higher than 9%. Not only are people being laid off in ridiculous numbers, but most companies are instituting hiring freezes. Hard to hire when you can't entertain someone for an interview.
In addition, the goodwill that many companies are showing today by keeping people on payroll is not going to last forever. And for many companies, this next few weeks is going to be a wake up call that many functions, projects, and their associated employees are simply not really needed.
sbenois said:
Unemployment is going much higher than 9%. Not only are people being laid off in ridiculous numbers, but most companies are instituting hiring freezes. Hard to hire when you can't entertain someone for an interview.
In addition, the goodwill that many companies are showing today by keeping people on payroll is not going to last forever. And for many companies, this next few weeks is going to be a wake up call that many functions, projects, and their associated employees are simply not really needed.
This is probably all true. But for now at least, my employer is giving us an extra $500 next month for combat pay. But work has been kinda slow the last couple of weeks. (we're a major insurance company)
We also just got our 2019 bonuses - which I was afraid would get cut back or just eliminated.
So far so good. Fingers crossed and knock on wood.
do we think in the face of this that there will be calls for governmental austerity around the world after the initial stimulus legislation? I would hope this is different, but I'm already seeing deficit scolds on social media complaining how much the projected stimulus is going to add to the national debt. It's insane what some people prioritize when thousands of people are looking at death and millions facing potentially tremendous hardship. I hope we won't repeat the mistakes governments made early in the last decade in going back to business as usual, but I fear there's a good chance we will.
"Negotiations on massive $1.6 trillion-plus emergency economic package to deal with the coronavirus crisis stalled on Sunday, with Senate Democrats objecting to the bill before a key procedural vote.
Democrats emerged from a closed-door lunch saying the emergency package had serious shortfalls and provided a "slush fund" to large corporations."
"Among the issues for Democrats, according to a senior Democratic aide, is $500 billion for corporations, stock buyback language that can be waived by the Treasury Secretary, limits on executive compensation only lasting two years and no provisions to protect individuals for eviction. In addition, Democrats are objecting to a lack of money for state and local governments and a provision of only three months for unemployment insurance."
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/22/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-141360
See my next post.
"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-jobless-rate-may-soar-191838293.html
Where are all the conservatives/Republicans screaming about socialism now?
Stock futures opened at 6:00 PM. At 6:04 they hit limit down.
eta - If they can get a stimulus bill agreed before the opening on Monday, there might be a chance. Right now, as if an excuse was needed, the futures players are acting in reaction to the impasse on the stimulus bill.
ml1 said:
do we think in the face of this that there will be calls for governmental austerity around the world after the initial stimulus legislation? I would hope this is different, but I'm already seeing deficit scolds on social media complaining how much the projected stimulus is going to add to the national debt. It's insane what some people prioritize when thousands of people are looking at death and millions facing potentially tremendous hardship. I hope we won't repeat the mistakes governments made early in the last decade in going back to business as usual, but I fear there's a good chance we will.
What do you think should have been done? Monetary and fiscal policy has been downright radical and has been increasing as the century progresses. From Doug Nolan's credit bubble bulliten:
Click to Read More
The base money chart should be really disconcerting to us all. Especially given the fact that it is going to point straight up once again.
This is gigantic news from the Fed. The futures were down 600 and they're now up 600. We'll see if it holds.
"The Federal Reserve said Monday it will launch a barrage of programs aimed at helping markets function more efficiently in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
Among the initiatives is a commitment to continue its asset purchasing program “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”
terp said:
The base money chart should be really disconcerting to us all. Especially given the fact that it is going to point straight up once again.
I don't pretend to be an economist, so I could be wrong but isn't that chart referring to something different that what I was describing?
sbenois said:
Great news. Sell into it.
There could be a countertrend rally for a few days, then a retest of the lows. Yeah, so sell into it.
ml1 said:
terp said:
The base money chart should be really disconcerting to us all. Especially given the fact that it is going to point straight up once again.
I don't pretend to be an economist, so I could be wrong but isn't that chart referring to something different that what I was describing?
I'm not sure exactly what you were referring to. So, 'm not sure if this is different. It is all part of the same machine though. Cramer's post above just proves the point.
Anyway, I'm not sure by what measure we've been austere. Below is the national debt chart. Perhaps further explanation would be helpful.
I would add that the government and the fed have been behaving like there is a crisis when their isn't a crisis. This is precisely why we are already at 0% interest and already running huge annual deficits prior to this happening.
We'd be a lot better off if we had some semblance of healthy fiscal and monetary policy going into a crisis like this. However, we had already been in crazy land. Further down the rabbit hole we go...
sbenois said:
We haven't seen the lows yet.
Problem with limit down is we don't know the real down or up if there should there be a reversal after limits are frozen.
sbenois said:
We haven't seen the lows yet.
I would agree. We should see up moves as a selling opportunity.
It doesn't do any good now, but last week in a CNBC interview with Chamath Palihapitya, he talked about how criminal it was to allow hedge funds to be leveraged-up 10-15 times their capital. It starts at 8:00 on the video but the entire interview is worth watching. .
I received an email this morning from a friend who is a senior partner at one of the largest accounting-advisory firms in the world. He said business is grinding to a halt and he didn't think that he would ever see something like this. They're making some gut-wrenching decisions.
terp said:
I would add that the government and the fed have been behaving like there is a crisis when their isn't a crisis. This is precisely why we are already at 0% interest and already running huge annual deficits prior to this happening.
We'd be a lot better off if we had some semblance of healthy fiscal and monetary policy going into a crisis like this. However, we had already been in crazy land. Further down the rabbit hole we go...
there were an awful lot of mistakes made over the past several years. But I guess my point above is that now doesn't seem like the time to try to correct them.
cramer said:
This is gigantic news from the Fed. The futures were down 600 and they're now up 600. We'll see if it holds.
"The Federal Reserve said Monday it will launch a barrage of programs aimed at helping markets function more efficiently in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
Among the initiatives is a commitment to continue its asset purchasing program “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”
That went well.
cramer said:
I received an email this morning from a friend who is a senior partner at one of the largest accounting-advisory firms in the world. He said business is grinding to a halt and he didn't think that he would ever see something like this. They're making some gut-wrenching decisions.
Meaning firing people?
Yes. Right now they're doing targeted lay-offs. If the downturn becomes more severe they face the prospect of having to do more severe and extensive lay-offs come mid-to-late April.
Goldman Sachs predicts that a record 2.25 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits this week - the highest ever.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-jobless-claims-record-forecast-layoffs-unemployment-coronavirus-economy-gs-2020-3-1029016767