Big Storm Coming?!?

I am flying to L.A. Thursday morning for a funeral, and I just spied a Washington Post article about a great weather cock-up coming our way. Any weatheristas want to let me know if my flight is in danger?


calling @max_weisenfeld grin this is what accuweather has:



That article is terrifying. I'm supposed to fly out Friday, but thinking about rescheduling.


Typical of these big, complex storms,  the outcome depends a lot on some very small (in the grand scheme of things) changes in the storm track.   Right now, the forecast limits the really heavy snow to eastern Long Island and points east (CT, MA).   Here's the official National Weather Service discussion from the New York Forecast Office:   

"Main question is what kind of shift in the track this storm
takes. Any shift to the west, would mean heavier snow for more
of the CWA. A shift to the east would mean less snow. This will
need to be watched over the next few model runs."

In addition, with the setup as is being influenced by the convergence of a coastal and a continental system, there's a chance for localized bands of heavier snow.      Net-net:   2-4 is probably the best you're gonna get until the short-term models kick in overnight and tomorrow morning.   I took a quick look at 3  models (GFS, NAM, and ECMWF) and they all show the center of the coastal low tracking pretty consistently.   If they start to diverge, then all bets are off.   



kthnry said:

That article is terrifying. I'm supposed to fly out Friday, but thinking about rescheduling.

Looks as if it only continues through Thursday.


Steve DiMartino is upping his forecast from what the NWS is expecting. Here are his reasons why and snow map: https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2018/01/02/winter-storm-watches-issued-as-winter-storm-approaches/


This will probably be the storm of the century since I believed earlier forecasts and haven't stocked up. Was not feeling well over the weekend so didn't grocery shop so...


If we learn nothing else from Max we must learn that storm predictions for three days out can't be trusted.  Too many variables.


Isn't snow supposed to start late Wednesday night into Thursday am? That's about 36 hours out, not three days, unless my math is seriously off? 



finnegan said:

Isn't snow supposed to start late Wednesday night into Thursday am? That's about 36 hours out, not three days, unless my math is seriously off? 

It's already Tuesday, so wouldn't late Wednesday night be 24-28 hours out? I'll feel better when we hear from Max or Wxnut (sp?)


Forecasters have this being a major storm, though not necessarily for us.  Flight issues may be impacted by where the plane is coming from and where the plane is going, even if there is not much snow here.  I am not an aviation expert but I would image that the extreme cold following the storm could also be an issue with flights.  Best to check with the airline regarding an individual flight.



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